Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Not much change to the recent trends expected over the next 36
hours. Weak, flat, upper ridge slowly breaks down further, but
remains basically in place over the region. Diurnal convection
firing this afternoon will peak in coverage between now and sundown,
then diminish overnight with a repeat of the pattern again tomorrow.
Highest POPs (though still chance at best) will be over the higher
terrain of the north where some orographic help is available and
across central Georgia in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that
lingers across the area. Moderate instability with decent mid-level
lapse rates keeps the chance for a few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms in the picture early this evening and again tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain a bit above seasonal
normals, but Heat Indices are expected to remain below advisory
levels through tomorrow.

20

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Models are in fairly good agreement through the long term.  Weak
high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will start to break
down early Wednesday. An elongated trough with energy confined
across the Canadian territories will shift a front toward the area
Thursday, draping it across the region by Friday. This front will
becoming stationary across our region, eventually washing out until
a more potent system and associated front crosses the region late
Monday/early Tuesday.

This pattern will result in a chance of showers/thunderstorms,
especially across north GA Thursday and Friday as the front
approaches and becomes stationary. Where this front resides will be
the focus for convection through at least Saturday night.  A
deepening trough diving into the mid-west will mean an increase in
convective coverage Sunday. Deep southerly flow tapping into the GOM
becomes juxtapose with the better dynamics aloft. The front
associated with this system will not clear the area until after
peaking heating Monday, thus we can expect another active
afternoon/evening. Conditions look to improve Tuesday if the front
is able to be a clean sweep of the region.

Based on the aforementioned conditions expected in the long term,
we are not forecasting any organized large scale event.  However,
given the ingredients with the latter storm system/front, we may
have more organized strong storms during Sunday and Monday
afternoons/evenings.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal Wednesday into Thursday,
but as cloud cover and precipitation chances increase Friday through
Monday, expect temperature to be AOB climo.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
The upper level ridge will flatten Wednesday as a weak trough
approaches from the northwest pushing a weakening surface front
across the forecast area. This boundary will focus convection
through the end of the week across the forecast area. Extended
models diverge by the weekend, as far as the upper trough. The
GFS maintains a more progressive solution, sliding the trough axis
over the forecast area while ECMWF develops a cutoff upper level
low around the Mid MS valley, hanging up the passage of the
frontal boundary, which would lead to continued high rain/storm
chances. Either way good chance pops seem reasonable through the
weekend. Guidance temperatures look to be near normal through the
periods and see no reason to deviate.

Atwell

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast area
through most of this forecast period. Local MVFR or lower
visibilities will develop between 06Z and 14Z, however I do not
anticipate any impacts at the TAF sites at this time. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected, generally between 18Z and and 06Z,
both this afternoon/evening and again tomorrow. Winds will be light
and somewhat variable in direction, generally 6kt or less, but will
favor southwest through northwest.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TSRA coverage/likelihood.
High on all other elements

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  92  73  91 /  30  30  20  40
Atlanta         74  92  74  91 /  30  30  20  40
Blairsville     68  87  69  84 /  30  30  20  50
Cartersville    72  92  73  91 /  30  30  20  50
Columbus        75  95  75  93 /  30  40  30  30
Gainesville     73  92  73  91 /  30  30  20  40
Macon           74  93  75  91 /  30  30  30  30
Rome            72  92  73  91 /  30  30  20  50
Peachtree City  73  94  73  91 /  30  30  20  40
Vidalia         74  92  74  93 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
233 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
233 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms that do develop could be strong with
gusty winds, dangerous lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with
increasing chances Thursday through Sunday. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated, however, some storms could produce
strong winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta or on Twitter by tagging @NWSAtlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
546 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

GAZ082-094-095-062215-
Peach GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-
546 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PEACH...SOUTHERN
BIBB AND NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 546 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Centerville, or 12
miles north of Perry...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron, Robins Air Force Base, Elberta and
Middle Georgia Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3250 8369 3269 8378 3269 8374 3272 8378
      3275 8378 3272 8362 3270 8361 3267 8361
      3266 8357 3262 8354 3261 8355 3258 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 336DEG 14KT 3264 8369

WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW TEMPERANCE        31.92N  83.17W
08/06/2018                   TELFAIR            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CHAUNCER MILAN RD NEAR THE INTERSECTION
            WITH GA HWY 117.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800779

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
603 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE AILEY              32.18N  82.56W
08/06/2018                   MONTGOMERY         GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 280
            AND E CHURCH ST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800780

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
605 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE AILEY             32.18N  82.55W
08/06/2018                   MONTGOMERY         GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 280
            AND PETROSS RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800781

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
609 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW ALSTON            32.10N  82.54W
08/06/2018                   MONTGOMERY         GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON POWERLINES AT THE INTERSECTION OF FIRE
            TOWER RD AND HWY 221.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800782

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
611 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

GAZ103-104-062245-
Sumter GA-Webster GA-
611 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SUMTER AND SOUTHERN
WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 611 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Dumas, or near
Preston...moving southwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Preston, Plains, Centerpoint and Dumas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3192 8438 3197 8444 3194 8445 3193 8445
      3192 8446 3192 8452 3202 8461 3214 8451
      3213 8447 3206 8430 3191 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 030DEG 10KT 3205 8446

WIND...40MPH