Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Not much change to the recent trends expected over the next 36
hours. Weak, flat, upper ridge slowly breaks down further, but
remains basically in place over the region. Diurnal convection
firing this afternoon will peak in coverage between now and sundown,
then diminish overnight with a repeat of the pattern again tomorrow.
Highest POPs (though still chance at best) will be over the higher
terrain of the north where some orographic help is available and
across central Georgia in the vicinity of a weak surface trough that
lingers across the area. Moderate instability with decent mid-level
lapse rates keeps the chance for a few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms in the picture early this evening and again tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Temperatures will remain a bit above seasonal
normals, but Heat Indices are expected to remain below advisory
levels through tomorrow.

20

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Models are in fairly good agreement through the long term.  Weak
high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will start to break
down early Wednesday. An elongated trough with energy confined
across the Canadian territories will shift a front toward the area
Thursday, draping it across the region by Friday. This front will
becoming stationary across our region, eventually washing out until
a more potent system and associated front crosses the region late
Monday/early Tuesday.

This pattern will result in a chance of showers/thunderstorms,
especially across north GA Thursday and Friday as the front
approaches and becomes stationary. Where this front resides will be
the focus for convection through at least Saturday night.  A
deepening trough diving into the mid-west will mean an increase in
convective coverage Sunday. Deep southerly flow tapping into the GOM
becomes juxtapose with the better dynamics aloft. The front
associated with this system will not clear the area until after
peaking heating Monday, thus we can expect another active
afternoon/evening. Conditions look to improve Tuesday if the front
is able to be a clean sweep of the region.

Based on the aforementioned conditions expected in the long term,
we are not forecasting any organized large scale event.  However,
given the ingredients with the latter storm system/front, we may
have more organized strong storms during Sunday and Monday
afternoons/evenings.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal Wednesday into Thursday,
but as cloud cover and precipitation chances increase Friday through
Monday, expect temperature to be AOB climo.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 408 AM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
The upper level ridge will flatten Wednesday as a weak trough
approaches from the northwest pushing a weakening surface front
across the forecast area. This boundary will focus convection
through the end of the week across the forecast area. Extended
models diverge by the weekend, as far as the upper trough. The
GFS maintains a more progressive solution, sliding the trough axis
over the forecast area while ECMWF develops a cutoff upper level
low around the Mid MS valley, hanging up the passage of the
frontal boundary, which would lead to continued high rain/storm
chances. Either way good chance pops seem reasonable through the
weekend. Guidance temperatures look to be near normal through the
periods and see no reason to deviate.

Atwell

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions are expected to predominate across the forecast area
through most of this forecast period. Local MVFR or lower
visibilities will develop between 06Z and 14Z, however I do not
anticipate any impacts at the TAF sites at this time. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected, generally between 18Z and and 06Z,
both this afternoon/evening and again tomorrow. Winds will be light
and somewhat variable in direction, generally 6kt or less, but will
favor southwest through northwest.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on TSRA coverage/likelihood.
High on all other elements

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  92  73  91 /  30  30  20  40
Atlanta         74  92  74  91 /  30  30  20  40
Blairsville     68  87  69  84 /  30  30  20  50
Cartersville    72  92  73  91 /  30  30  20  50
Columbus        75  95  75  93 /  30  40  30  30
Gainesville     73  92  73  91 /  30  30  20  40
Macon           74  93  75  91 /  30  30  30  30
Rome            72  92  73  91 /  30  30  20  50
Peachtree City  73  94  73  91 /  30  30  20  40
Vidalia         74  92  74  93 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
233 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
233 PM EDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms that do develop could be strong with
gusty winds, dangerous lightning and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with
increasing chances Thursday through Sunday. Widespread severe
weather is not anticipated, however, some storms could produce
strong winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta or on Twitter by tagging @NWSAtlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
432 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

GAZ098-112-113-062100-
Toombs GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
432 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TOOMBS...
SOUTHEASTERN TREUTLEN AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
EDT...

At 432 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Kibbee, or 7 miles
southeast of Soperton...moving south at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Ailey, Higgston, Tarrytown and Kibbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3215 8261 3219 8263 3221 8263 3222 8264
      3223 8263 3225 8265 3226 8264 3228 8264
      3228 8265 3236 8263 3237 8245 3217 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 347DEG 21KT 3228 8254

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
450 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

GAZ109-110-062115-
Telfair GA-Dodge GA-
450 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TELFAIR AND SOUTHEASTERN DODGE
COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Chauncey, or 7 miles
west of McRae...moving south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
McRae, Helena, Milan, Chauncey, Jay Bird Springs and Achord.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3212 8314 3214 8302 3216 8296 3198 8283
      3195 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 341DEG 18KT 3207 8304

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
451 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

GAZ107-108-062115-
Wilcox GA-Pulaski GA-
451 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILCOX AND
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 451 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Cedar Creek, or 11
miles south of Hawkinsville...moving south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Pineview, Wallace, Pope City, Ocmulgee Banks, Cedar Creek and
Finleyson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3200 8354 3221 8352 3222 8335 3216 8331
      3215 8332 3213 8331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 341DEG 18KT 3213 8342

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
513 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

GAZ109-062145-
Dodge GA-
513 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DODGE COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 513 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Gresston, or near
Eastman...moving south at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Eastman, Dubois, Gresston, Plainfield, Yonkers, Roddy and
Godwinsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3213 8331 3214 8332 3216 8331 3218 8329
      3219 8331 3232 8329 3234 8329 3240 8321
      3236 8310 3223 8304 3214 8300 3212 8332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 356DEG 23KT 3227 8319

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
519 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

GAZ108-062145-
Wilcox GA-
519 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILCOX COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

At 518 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Antioch Church, or 7
miles southwest of Abbeville...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rochelle, Antioch Church and Owensboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3185 8351 3190 8351 3200 8336 3185 8318
      3185 8321 3184 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 323DEG 16KT 3190 8338

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
529 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

GAZ110>112-062145-
Wheeler GA-Telfair GA-Montgomery GA-
529 PM EDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHEELER...EASTERN
TELFAIR AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 529 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Lumber City, or near
Hazlehurst...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lumber City, Uvalda, Alston and Charlotteville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3200 8272 3210 8249 3204 8247 3197 8248
      3196 8250 3195 8248 3195 8249 3196 8253
      3196 8257 3193 8259 3194 8260 3192 8265
      3192 8268 3191 8268 3190 8269 3190 8270
      3189 8271 3187 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 332DEG 11KT 3193 8262

WIND...40MPH