Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
153 PM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

.UPDATE...
Near term forecast in pretty good shape. Initial isolated convection
which developed in westcentral GA west of ATL metro has shifted
south as drier air aloft moves in, so appears SHRA/TSRA may hold
off in ATL area thru 19-20Z. CAPE could get a little higher than
forecast with this clearing so may need to watch for isolated
strong/svr storms, already seeing values over 1500 J/kg.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 749 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
The stationary front currently draped across portions of north
Georgia should start to lift north today as a warm front. Meanwhile,
moisture will continue to increase to a noticeable difference
through the short term period. As the upper level trough over the
eastern US continues to dig, southwesterly flow will push moisture
rich air into the area. In addition, southerly flow on the western
edge of the Bermuda High will also transport moisture rich air into
the area. PWATS will continue to rise through the period to the 1.7
to 2 inch mark especially in central Georgia, with 1.8 to 2+ inches
across much of the area by Tuesday afternoon.

Ahead of the approaching trough, multiple shortwaves will work their
way around the base of the trough and into the area helping to
enhance precipitation this afternoon and evening and on Tuesday as
well. Expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening with the highest pops in central Georgia, with
fairly widespread activity on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Showers
and thunderstorms could also linger into the overnight.

Heavy rain will definitely be a threat with any showers and
thunderstorms, which could lead to flash flooding issues across the
area, especially for areas that continuously see precipitation.
Overall, QPF amounts through the short term period look to be just
less than an inch to an inch and a half across the area. Although,
locally higher amounts will be possible.

High temperatures today are in the upper 80s and lower 90s across
the area with lows in the 70s with 60s in the mountains. High
temperatures will be slightly cooler on Tuesday due to the enhanced
cloud cover and precipitation, with highs mainly in the mid to upper
80s across much of the area with 70s in the mountains.

Reaves

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
The first half of the long term period will be dominated by
unsettled weather, with high pressure returning by early next week.

A frontal boundary will continue to inch eastward through the Gulf
States through early Friday. This boundary should remain just west
of the CWFA for Wednesday and Thursday and dissipate by the early
part of the weekend. There is some uncertainty regarding if the
boundary will make it into the far western CWFA before dissipating.
Regardless, the airmass head of the front will funnel deep Gulf
Moisture northward over the area, keeping pops above normal into the
early weekend.

High pressure begins to build into the region for the latter half of
the weekend and the chances for precip should return to more normal
values for this time of year.

With broad troughing aloft and increased cloud cover due to
precip/abundant cloud cover, temperatures will be below normal for
the middle to late week.

There is definitely some potential for flooding during the middle of
the week. Currently, the models are projecting the highest rainfall
totals along the I-85 corridor, but this axis will likely shift and
it's too early to issue any type of flood watch. The most likely
timing for heavy rainfall (right now) would be late Tuesday into
Wednesday.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Primary concern is coverage of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and
evening. Have increased implied coverage of SHRA this afternoon
based on forecast trends however recent satellite imagery showing
SHRA/TSRA shift south away from ATL metro airports. May need to
update forecast as needed. Other concern is overnight MVFR/IFR
stratus after 10Z. With deep moisture moving in, have included in
forecast though confidence is a little lower than normal. Sfc
winds will be less than 5kts and remain at or just west of due
south through 14Z then become SSW at 5-8kts. SHRA/TSRA Tues
afternoon after 18Z likely with little higher coverage than
today.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence in TSRA coverage this afternoon.
Low confidence in IFR/MVFR cigs Tues morning.
Medium to high confidence in all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  72  84  70 /  40  40  70  50
Atlanta         88  73  85  71 /  50  40  80  50
Blairsville     83  66  78  65 /  30  50  70  70
Cartersville    89  71  85  69 /  40  40  70  60
Columbus        90  74  87  72 /  60  50  70  50
Gainesville     86  71  83  69 /  40  40  70  60
Macon           89  73  87  72 /  50  50  70  40
Rome            90  71  85  69 /  30  40  70  60
Peachtree City  89  72  85  70 /  50  40  80  50
Vidalia         88  74  87  73 /  60  50  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
503 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311030-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
503 AM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon. A few of the storms could become strong producing gusty
winds and frequent lightning strikes. Localized flooding is also
possible, especially in low lying areas and where thunderstorms
repeatedly move.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day. The
best days for numerous thunderstorms are Tuesday through Friday.
Some storms could be strong with frequent lightning, gusty winds
and locally heavy rain. With multiple days of thunderstorm
activity, soils may quickly become saturated leading to localized
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
239 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2018

GAZ083-084-096-097-301915-
Wilkinson GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-
239 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILKINSON...
NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...NORTHEASTERN BLECKLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN TWIGGS
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 239 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near District Path, or near
Jeffersonville...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jeffersonville, Danville, Montrose, Allentown, Tarversville, District
Path, Goldsboro and Cary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3256 8348 3273 8336 3265 8308 3243 8320
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 295DEG 12KT 3261 8332

WIND...40MPH