Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
130 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.UPDATE...

No changes planned for the forecast.

41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Precip from late evening showers/storms that have largely diminished
and pushed east will again allow for some pesky morning fog with
patchy coverage and like other recent mornings, any lingering areas
of sfc convergence from old boundaries can trigger a stray shower
just about any time. Still looking like weak upper wave axis
traversing the southern half of the CWA and a front approaching the
north will focus the greater chance of afternoon/evening convection.
Fcst CAPE values are on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg so a few strong
storms can again be expected. With some mid/upper level drier air
advecting across the north, resultant PWATs will be a bit lower than
past days and should make storms not quite as efficient rain
producers but isolated flooding is always a threat with any
summertime convection.

Aforementioned front and moisture axis will be shifted farther south
for Wednesday so have confined the pops to primarily central GA and
give the north a welcomed break. The drier columns will allow for
slightly warmer temps in the period, which brings us back to near
normal in the low 90s for most areas.

Baker

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Beginning of the extended forecast sees moisture returning northward
across the region. Upper-level flow continues to amplify as the
eastern U.S. upper trough deepens. Good short wave energy in the
northwesterly flow drives another sharp surface frontal boundary into
the forecast area Saturday. Combined with moderate instability and
mid-level winds, the threat for at least slightly more organized
strong to severe storms cannot be ignored. By the beginning of next
week, the upper flow begins de-amplifying some as the eastern trough
lifts and the western ridge builds back toward the region. not seeing
enough to eliminate POPs, but we are likely to see less coverage and
a return to a more diurnal convective cycle.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Expect afternoon cumulus sct-bkn035-045 to develop...gradually
dissipating this evening. Not expecting low ceilings Wednesday
morning since drier air will be advecting south...but KMCN and
KCSG could still see some mvfr. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon and linger into the evening. Winds will
remain light west to northwest.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on low ceilings for Wednesday morning.
High on all else.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  72  91  72 /  40  30  20  20
Atlanta         90  74  91  72 /  40  30  20  10
Blairsville     84  65  85  66 /  50  30  10  10
Cartersville    90  71  90  68 /  40  40  10  10
Columbus        91  75  92  73 /  40  40  50  20
Gainesville     88  71  89  71 /  40  30  20  10
Macon           91  73  91  72 /  40  40  50  30
Rome            90  71  91  69 /  40  40  10  10
Peachtree City  90  72  91  70 /  40  30  20  20
Vidalia         90  74  91  74 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1251 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1251 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central Georgia
this afternoon and evening. A few of these storms could be
strong, producing gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes.
However, the main hazard will be locally heavy rainfall. The heavy
rain could cause temporary street flooding and ponding of water
in low lying areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Wednesday through
Monday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours each day. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each day with strong,
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
202 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

GAZ086-098-112-113-171845-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
202 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TOOMBS...SOUTHERN
EMANUEL...EASTERN TREUTLEN AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 245
PM EDT...

At 202 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Zaidee, or near
Soperton...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Soperton, Stillmore, Oak Park, Tarrytown, Zaidee, Gillis Springs,
Kibbee and Normantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3243 8219 3235 8225 3235 8224 3228 8223
      3225 8221 3220 8222 3231 8266 3246 8255
      3247 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 276DEG 17KT 3237 8249

WIND...40MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
244 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

GAZ001>004-171930-
Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
244 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHITFIELD...CATOOSA...WALKER AND
DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 244 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Graysville to near Flat Rock...and moving southeast at
20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dalton, Lafayette, Ringgold, Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Chickamauga,
Varnell, Lookout Mountain, Tunnel Hill, Cohutta, Center Post, Blue
Spring, Fairview, Linwood, Chattanooga  Valley, Cloudland Canyon
State Park, Cooper Heights, Rock Spring, Naomi and Rising Fawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3482 8486 3481 8486 3460 8536 3459 8537
      3459 8553 3488 8559 3498 8536 3499 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 337DEG 17KT 3500 8514 3477 8566

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

GAZ086-112-113-171915-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-Montgomery GA-
245 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TOOMBS...SOUTHERN
EMANUEL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 245 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Stillmore to Higgston...and moving east at 20
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lyons, Vidalia, Stillmore, Oak Park, Higgston, Santa Claus, Ohoopee,
Ponderosa and Normantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3214 8220 3211 8220 3223 8254 3244 8219
      3242 8219 3235 8225 3235 8224 3221 8221
      3218 8219 3216 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 276DEG 19KT 3241 8222 3224 8247

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

GAZ086-171915-
Emanuel GA-
246 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

At 246 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Canoochee, or 12 miles
east of Swainsboro...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Twin City, Garfield, Canoochee and George L Smith State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3256 8203 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215
      3251 8215 3250 8223 3273 8224 3277 8212
      3266 8208 3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 257DEG 22KT 3266 8214

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
329 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

GAZ001>005-011-012-019-172000-
Chattooga GA-Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Dade GA-
Murray GA-Floyd GA-
329 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA...WHITFIELD...
CATOOSA...WALKER...NORTHWESTERN GORDON...SOUTHERN DADE...SOUTHWESTERN
MURRAY AND NORTHERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 329 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Ringgold to near Mentone...and moving southeast
at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dalton, Lafayette, Summerville, Chatsworth, Ringgold, Chickamauga,
Trion, Varnell, Tunnel Hill, Resaca, Lyerly, Menlo, Center Post,
Subligna, Blue Spring, Lake Marvin, Linwood, Villanow, Cloudland and
James H. Floyd State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3474 8469 3428 8540 3437 8548 3469 8555
      3498 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 310DEG 17KT 3488 8513 3460 8557

WIND...40MPH