Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
729 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 336 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Seems to be no real focus for thunderstorm development again today
except for leftover boundaries. Heavy rain continues to be a
threat as storms are slow moving. Upper air shows a weakening
upper ridge with a broad trough forming over the southeast during
the period. Models indicating a front drifting into north GA
Tuesday afternoon/evening with some drier air spreading into the
state. Still looks like basically a diurnal pattern through the
period...although some storms could linger into the overnight
tonight. For Tuesday...have kept pops in the 40 to 50 percent
range. For tomorrow night have dried out the far north after
06z...but left low pops for the remainder of the area. No big
changes to temperatures in the short term.

41

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

SNELSON

Still appears area will see only slow shift to NW flow aloft this
week with broad upper ridge building over the western and central
CONUS and trough over the midwest states. By the weekend, however,
medium range guidance now showing high amplitude trough digging SSE
into the eastern states on Saturday. While we may not see much
cooler temps, could see slightly drier air at sfc and aloft, though
chc of storms will continue with cold air aloft and stronger mid
level flow. Until then, will continue to see mostly diurnally-driven
afternoon and evening convection though with well above average PW,
could also see isolated overnight activity as well. As flow aloft
eventually becomes WNW, could see some development of MCS though not
seeing confirmation of this in model QPF.

Heat indices should remain 95 to 101, which is below advisory
threshold, through the extended though will continue to monitor.
Tropical activity thankfully still not seen in model progs or NHC
outlooks.

PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION... /Issued 345 AM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018/

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...

Medium-range models continue to show an amplifying upper-level
pattern developing through the majority of the extended forecast
period. Frontal boundary settling into the southern portion of the
forecast area as we begin the period concentrates best POPs across
the southern half of the area mid-week. Strong short wave and
associated surface front should increase POPs areawide as we head
into the weekend. With moderate mid-level winds associated with this
system, combined with enhanced forcing and at least moderate
instability, we will need to keep an eye on the potential for an
increased severe thunderstorms threat. Noticeable divergence between
the GFS and the ECMWF for the latter portion of the period, but I
have kept at least chance POPs through the end of this forecast
cycle.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger for the
next few hours, but should diminish in coverage by 10pm. Do expect
IFR cigs to develop again overnight. If persistence holds, a brief
period of VLIFR is possible right around 12z. Synoptic winds
shouldremain on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  72  90 /  50  50  40  30
Atlanta         75  90  73  90 /  50  50  40  30
Blairsville     67  85  65  85 /  50  50  30  20
Cartersville    72  90  71  90 /  50  50  40  30
Columbus        75  91  75  92 /  50  50  50  50
Gainesville     71  89  71  89 /  50  50  40  30
Macon           74  92  73  91 /  50  50  40  50
Rome            73  91  70  91 /  40  50  40  20
Peachtree City  72  90  72  91 /  50  50  40  40
Vidalia         74  91  74  90 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
100 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
100 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across north and
central Georgia this afternoon and tonight, most numerous between 3
and midnight, although isolated storms will continue overnight. A
few of these storms could also be strong, producing gusty winds and
occasional lightning. However, the main hazard from the
thunderstorms will be locally heavy rainfall. The heavy rain could
cause temporary street flooding and ponding of water in low lying
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through
Sunday, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours each day. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each day with strong,
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and very heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
819 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

GAZ030-031-041-170045-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Paulding GA-
819 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN
HARALSON AND SOUTHWESTERN PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

At 819 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Eubank Lake, or near
Buchanan...moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Buchanan, Rockmart, Aragon, Braswell, Yorkville, Draketown, Eubank
Lake, Antioch and Van Wert.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3392 8523 3408 8500 3383 8487 3380 8500
      3381 8505 3379 8505 3377 8517
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 246DEG 10KT 3389 8514

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
834 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

GAZ019-020-030-170100-
Polk GA-Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
834 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN
BARTOW AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

At 834 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Taylorsville, or 12
miles west of Cartersville...moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cartersville, Euharlee, Kingston, Taylorsville, Cassville and
Stilesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3405 8497 3413 8511 3434 8499 3420 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 216DEG 10KT 3414 8501

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
842 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

GAZ033-044-045-054-055-057-170115-
Fayette GA-North Fulton GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-Henry GA-
South Fulton GA-
842 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE...NORTH
FULTON...CLAYTON...SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB...NORTHWESTERN HENRY AND
EASTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 842 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Riverdale, or near
Jonesboro...moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Atlanta, Jonesboro, East Point, Union City, Forest Park, Riverdale,
College Park, Morrow, Hapeville, Lake City, Hartsfield-Jackson
Airport, West End, Rex, Ellenwood, Turner Field, Hidden Valley Park,
Fort Gillem, Lakewood Park, Conley and Gresham Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3376 8443 3361 8418 3348 8440 3356 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 216DEG 10KT 3356 8444

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
846 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

GAZ030-031-041-042-170115-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-
846 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN
HARALSON...NORTHERN CARROLL AND SOUTHWESTERN PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL
915 PM EDT...

At 846 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Eubank Lake, or near
Buchanan...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Buchanan, Temple, Yorkville, Draketown, Antioch and Eubank Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3396 8521 3394 8494 3372 8498 3378 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 270DEG 16KT 3387 8513

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