Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
The Weak cold front that pushed into the area yesterday has all but
washed out across central GA today. This front did allow a weak
surface high pressure ridge/wedge to build into NE GA last night
which brought in the lowered ceilings and cooler temps today. Most
areas across North and portions of central GA were running about 5
to 7 deg lower than yesterday because of the overcast clouds. This
wedge is expected to continue building into the area through Sat so
should see another morning with low clouds again. Showers and
thunderstorms have begun to pop across the area and will continue
through about 10pm or so. Will see another round of showers and
thunderstorms Sat afternoon as well. With this wedge building in the
airmass across North GA is fairly stable for this time of year so
not expecting much in the way of severe storms today or Sat. This
falls right in line with the general thunderstorm risk the entire
southeastern U.S. is under through the weekend.

01

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Extended period model solutions remain in fairly good agreement,
and have continued higher than seasonal pops through day 7 with
the region remaining in an unsettled and moist pattern. Models
diverge in handling low pressure late next week, but agree enough
to keep likely pops headed into next weekend. Previous forecast
discussion follows.

31

/Issued 354 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018/

Medium-range models are in fairly good agreement through the majority
of the Long-Term Forecast period. Region starts out under the eastern
edge of the persistent weak, flat, upper ridge with warm temperatures
and scattered, mainly diurnal, convection continuing through the end
of the weekend. Upper pattern undergoes a significant shift through
the upcoming workweek as the upper ridge retreats westward and
amplifies with a correspondent deepening trough over the eastern
U.S. Sharp frontal boundary enters the region as we head into the
middle of the week and sags into the forecast area through the latter
half of the week. All-in-all we should see increased precipitation
chances and temperatures closer to seasonal normals.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Ceilings have finally come up into the VFR range but
expecting them to go back down again over night into the MVFR and
IFR range through Sat morning. Ceilings will lift again through late
Sat morning back into the VFR range. VSBYs should Stay mainly VFR
with some brief periods of MVFR readings in and around SHRA/TSRA
this afternoon and again Sat. Winds will be mainly out of the East
with speeds 10kt or less with some higher gust associated with
thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  88  71  89 /  50  40  30  50
Atlanta         74  88  73  88 /  50  60  30  50
Blairsville     67  83  67  84 /  50  50  30  50
Cartersville    72  88  72  89 /  40  50  30  50
Columbus        76  92  75  90 /  30  70  30  60
Gainesville     72  86  71  87 /  50  40  30  50
Macon           74  90  73  89 /  40  60  30  50
Rome            73  90  72  89 /  40  50  30  50
Peachtree City  73  89  72  88 /  50  60  30  60
Vidalia         75  90  74  90 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
240 PM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
north and central Georgia. A few storms could become strong to
severe with damaging wind, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered to numerous, mainly afternoon and evening, thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday through Thursday. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible each day with strong, gusty winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
731 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

GAZ103-104-140000-
Sumter GA-Webster GA-
731 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SUMTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 731 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Dumas, or near
Preston. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dumas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3194 8445 3203 8454 3208 8446 3202 8439
      3197 8444 3195 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 036DEG 2KT 3202 8445

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

GAZ019-020-030-140000-
Polk GA-Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
734 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN
BARTOW AND SOUTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 733 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Seney, or 10 miles
southeast of Rome. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Euharlee, Aragon, Kingston, Taylorsville and Seney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3411 8524 3428 8493 3413 8486 3402 8515
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 307DEG 3KT 3413 8508

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
735 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

GAZ024-140000-
Banks GA-
735 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BANKS COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 735 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Homer. This storm was
nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding especially
           in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Homer, Maysville and Hollingsworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of
control due to hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3435 8339 3426 8351 3425 8355 3433 8365
      3435 8365 3447 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 127DEG 2KT 3437 8353