Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
The Weak cold front that pushed into the area yesterday has all but
washed out across central GA today. This front did allow a weak
surface high pressure ridge/wedge to build into NE GA last night
which brought in the lowered ceilings and cooler temps today. Most
areas across North and portions of central GA were running about 5
to 7 deg lower than yesterday because of the overcast clouds. This
wedge is expected to continue building into the area through Sat so
should see another morning with low clouds again. Showers and
thunderstorms have begun to pop across the area and will continue
through about 10pm or so. Will see another round of showers and
thunderstorms Sat afternoon as well. With this wedge building in the
airmass across North GA is fairly stable for this time of year so
not expecting much in the way of severe storms today or Sat. This
falls right in line with the general thunderstorm risk the entire
southeastern U.S. is under through the weekend.

01

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Extended period model solutions remain in fairly good agreement,
and have continued higher than seasonal pops through day 7 with
the region remaining in an unsettled and moist pattern. Models
diverge in handling low pressure late next week, but agree enough
to keep likely pops headed into next weekend. Previous forecast
discussion follows.

31

/Issued 354 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018/

Medium-range models are in fairly good agreement through the majority
of the Long-Term Forecast period. Region starts out under the eastern
edge of the persistent weak, flat, upper ridge with warm temperatures
and scattered, mainly diurnal, convection continuing through the end
of the weekend. Upper pattern undergoes a significant shift through
the upcoming workweek as the upper ridge retreats westward and
amplifies with a correspondent deepening trough over the eastern
U.S. Sharp frontal boundary enters the region as we head into the
middle of the week and sags into the forecast area through the latter
half of the week. All-in-all we should see increased precipitation
chances and temperatures closer to seasonal normals.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Ceilings have finally come up into the VFR range but
expecting them to go back down again over night into the MVFR and
IFR range through Sat morning. Ceilings will lift again through late
Sat morning back into the VFR range. VSBYs should Stay mainly VFR
with some brief periods of MVFR readings in and around SHRA/TSRA
this afternoon and again Sat. Winds will be mainly out of the East
with speeds 10kt or less with some higher gust associated with
thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  88  71  89 /  50  40  30  50
Atlanta         74  88  73  88 /  50  60  30  50
Blairsville     67  83  67  84 /  50  50  30  50
Cartersville    72  88  72  89 /  40  50  30  50
Columbus        76  92  75  90 /  30  70  30  60
Gainesville     72  86  71  87 /  50  40  30  50
Macon           74  90  73  89 /  40  60  30  50
Rome            73  90  72  89 /  40  50  30  50
Peachtree City  73  89  72  88 /  50  60  30  60
Vidalia         75  90  74  90 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
240 PM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
north and central Georgia. A few storms could become strong to
severe with damaging wind, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered to numerous, mainly afternoon and evening, thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday through Thursday. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible each day with strong, gusty winds,
frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
427 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

GAZ071-072-082-132100-
Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Jones GA-
427 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONROE...
NORTHEASTERN BIBB AND SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 427 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Plant Scherer to near Arkwright...and moving east
at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Macon, Payne, Payne City, Wesleyan, Bolingbroke, Arkwright, Dames
Ferry and Jarrell Plantation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3307 8374 3286 8350 3285 8376 3304 8390
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 281DEG 19KT 3302 8386 3290 8369

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
428 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

GAZ080-132100-
Taylor GA-
428 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 428 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Wesley Church, or near
Butler...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Butler and Wesley Church.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3261 8438 3269 8433 3264 8413 3247 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 305DEG 13KT 3262 8429

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

GAZ084-097-132100-
Wilkinson GA-Laurens GA-
430 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON AND
NORTHWESTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 430 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Chappells Mill, or 9
miles northwest of Dublin...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dublin, East Dublin, Dudley, Chappells Mill, Harlow and Nicklesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3261 8319 3270 8310 3259 8281 3243 8295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 301DEG 13KT 3262 8304

WIND...40MPH