Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Somewhat complex setup over the forecast area through the short-term
forecast period as the region remains situated between the weak mid/
upper ridging to the northwest and the weak mid/upper low drifting
westward across south Georgia/north Florida. Throw in the frontal
boundary settling into state and we should continue to see scattered
to widespread convection through the period. With generally weak
mechanical lift due to the surface front and upper low,
precipitation coverage will also continue to show a decidedly
diurnal tendency. Ample sky cover Saturday will keep high
temperatures at or even a bit below seasonal normals.

Although instability is expected to remain moderate at best over the
region, a few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out
as we go into this evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening.
Precipitable water values remain high, but not extreme for this time
of year, however mid-level winds should keep storms moving enough to
avoid all but a localized threat for any flooding problems.

20

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

By the beginning of the long-term forecast period on Sunday, the
weak weekend cold front will have sagged into central and south
Georgia. The best focus for shower and thunderstorm development
Sunday afternoon and evening will thus be in central Georgia with
less coverage farther north. On Monday, surface high pressure will
encroach from the northeast which will help to suppress shower and
thunderstorm development across eastern portions of the CWA while
focusing the best coverage over the southwestern half of the area.
This drier airmass will continue to filter into the area on Tuesday,
limiting diurnal convection to isolated to widely scattered
coverage.

While a tropical system may develop off the coast of the Carolinas in
the Atlantic by mid-to-late week, this potential system will be
of no consequence to Georgia as it gets kicked northeastward by an
upper trough. The trend for our area will be gradually warming
temperatures and isolated to scattered afternoon/evening
convection as upper ridging begins to build into the Southeast.

Temperatures at the onset of the extended will be on the cooler side
behind the aforementioned front with highs largely in the mid-80s on
Sunday. Through the extended highs are expected to gradually warm
back into the low-to-mid 90s by midweek.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Most areas SCT/BKN VFR level clouds currently and this trend should
continue outside of convection through 06Z. MVFR or lower ceilings
developing by 06-08Z most areas, continuing through 14-16Z.
Conditions should improve to mainly VFR by 18Z most areas. Isolated
to scattered convection developing at this time will become more
widespread through 00Z before diminishing to isolated by 06Z. Winds
northwest to northeast 4-8kt will become mainly northeast to east
after 04-06Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on timing of convection and lower ceilings early Saturday
morning. High on all other elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  82  68  84 /  60  50  40  30
Atlanta         72  85  70  83 /  60  60  50  30
Blairsville     65  79  63  80 /  60  50  40  30
Cartersville    70  85  69  84 /  60  60  40  30
Columbus        72  89  72  87 /  50  70  60  60
Gainesville     70  83  68  81 /  60  50  40  30
Macon           72  87  71  86 /  50  70  60  60
Rome            70  86  69  85 /  50  60  40  30
Peachtree City  70  86  70  84 /  60  70  50  40
Vidalia         72  88  72  87 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1246 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071700-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1246 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon and into tonight as a cold front moves out of the
Tennessee Valley and into north Georgia. A few thunderstorms
could be strong to severe with gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rain. The most favorable time frame for thunderstorm
development will be through 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

The cold front will continue its slow southward movement, moving
into central Georgia by Saturday afternoon. Numerous thunderstorms
are expected to develop by late Saturday morning and continue into
Saturday evening. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
again Sunday, mainly across central Georgia as the cold front
stalls across central Georgia. A few of these storms both Saturday
and Sunday could be strong to severe with gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rain.

Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible
Monday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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