Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Somewhat complex setup over the forecast area through the short-term
forecast period as the region remains situated between the weak mid/
upper ridging to the northwest and the weak mid/upper low drifting
westward across south Georgia/north Florida. Throw in the frontal
boundary settling into state and we should continue to see scattered
to widespread convection through the period. With generally weak
mechanical lift due to the surface front and upper low,
precipitation coverage will also continue to show a decidedly
diurnal tendency. Ample sky cover Saturday will keep high
temperatures at or even a bit below seasonal normals.

Although instability is expected to remain moderate at best over the
region, a few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out
as we go into this evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening.
Precipitable water values remain high, but not extreme for this time
of year, however mid-level winds should keep storms moving enough to
avoid all but a localized threat for any flooding problems.

20

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

By the beginning of the long-term forecast period on Sunday, the
weak weekend cold front will have sagged into central and south
Georgia. The best focus for shower and thunderstorm development
Sunday afternoon and evening will thus be in central Georgia with
less coverage farther north. On Monday, surface high pressure will
encroach from the northeast which will help to suppress shower and
thunderstorm development across eastern portions of the CWA while
focusing the best coverage over the southwestern half of the area.
This drier airmass will continue to filter into the area on Tuesday,
limiting diurnal convection to isolated to widely scattered
coverage.

While a tropical system may develop off the coast of the Carolinas in
the Atlantic by mid-to-late week, this potential system will be
of no consequence to Georgia as it gets kicked northeastward by an
upper trough. The trend for our area will be gradually warming
temperatures and isolated to scattered afternoon/evening
convection as upper ridging begins to build into the Southeast.

Temperatures at the onset of the extended will be on the cooler side
behind the aforementioned front with highs largely in the mid-80s on
Sunday. Through the extended highs are expected to gradually warm
back into the low-to-mid 90s by midweek.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Most areas SCT/BKN VFR level clouds currently and this trend should
continue outside of convection through 06Z. MVFR or lower ceilings
developing by 06-08Z most areas, continuing through 14-16Z.
Conditions should improve to mainly VFR by 18Z most areas. Isolated
to scattered convection developing at this time will become more
widespread through 00Z before diminishing to isolated by 06Z. Winds
northwest to northeast 4-8kt will become mainly northeast to east
after 04-06Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium on timing of convection and lower ceilings early Saturday
morning. High on all other elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  82  68  84 /  60  50  40  30
Atlanta         72  85  70  83 /  60  60  50  30
Blairsville     65  79  63  80 /  60  50  40  30
Cartersville    70  85  69  84 /  60  60  40  30
Columbus        72  89  72  87 /  50  70  60  60
Gainesville     70  83  68  81 /  60  50  40  30
Macon           72  87  71  86 /  50  70  60  60
Rome            70  86  69  85 /  50  60  40  30
Peachtree City  70  86  70  84 /  60  70  50  40
Vidalia         72  88  72  87 /  40  60  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1246 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071700-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1246 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon and into tonight as a cold front moves out of the
Tennessee Valley and into north Georgia. A few thunderstorms
could be strong to severe with gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and heavy rain. The most favorable time frame for thunderstorm
development will be through 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

The cold front will continue its slow southward movement, moving
into central Georgia by Saturday afternoon. Numerous thunderstorms
are expected to develop by late Saturday morning and continue into
Saturday evening. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
again Sunday, mainly across central Georgia as the cold front
stalls across central Georgia. A few of these storms both Saturday
and Sunday could be strong to severe with gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rain.

Scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible
Monday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
552 PM EDT FRI JUL 06 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW AMICALOLA FALLS S 34.58N  84.30W
07/06/2018                   GILMER             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF ROADWAY BLOCKAGE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE ON GA
            HWY 52 NEAR MOUNTAIN ASH ROAD.

&&

CORRECTED FATALITIES...INJURIES...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800611

JKING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
615 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

GAZ042-062245-
Carroll GA-
615 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM EDT...

At 615 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Seaton Lake, or near
Carrollton...moving southwest at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Carrollton, Whitesburg, Clem, Abilene, Lowell, Treasure Lake and
Seaton Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3370 8497 3364 8490 3358 8491 3357 8484
      3357 8483 3345 8497 3346 8498 3345 8499
      3344 8498 3344 8499 3343 8502 3358 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 049DEG 15KT 3359 8497

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
616 PM EDT FRI JUL 06 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW LOW GAP SHELTER   34.76N  83.87W
07/06/2018                   UNION              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF SEVERAL TREES DOWN WHICH ALSO KNOCKED A
            POWERLINE POLE DOWN ON RICHARD B RUSSELL SCENIC HWY NEAR
            HELTON CREEK IN UNION COUNTY, GA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800614

JKING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
616 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

GAZ046>048-055-057-062245-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
616 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALTON...ROCKDALE...
CLAYTON...NORTHERN NEWTON AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 615 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Big Haynes Creek Park to Richardson Park to Lake
City...and drifting southwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
McDonough, Conyers, Covington, Jonesboro, Stockbridge, Forest Park,
Riverdale, Loganville, Morrow, Lovejoy, Hapeville, Social Circle,
Lake City, Oxford, Porterdale, Walnut Grove, Jersey,
Hartsfield-Jackson Airport, Lakeview Estates and Georgia
International Horse Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3365 8444 3365 8425 3363 8424 3363 8423
      3365 8422 3364 8416 3362 8411 3371 8407
      3384 8386 3364 8372 3344 8412 3344 8439
      3348 8439 3350 8442 3355 8444 3355 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 204DEG 8KT 3375 8392 3361 8412 3360 8434

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
704 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

GAZ052-053-066-067-062330-
Coweta GA-Troup GA-Heard GA-Meriwether GA-
704 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COWETA...
NORTHEASTERN TROUP...SOUTHEASTERN HEARD AND NORTHWESTERN MERIWETHER
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 702 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Corinth, or 12 miles
southwest of Newnan...and was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Hogansville, Grantville, Luthersville, Lone Oak, Corinth, Saint
Marks, Harrisonville, Hillcrest and Louise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3303 8491 3313 8510 3332 8496 3323 8467
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 211DEG 16KT 3321 8490

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
706 PM EDT FRI JUL 06 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N CLEM                33.58N  85.01W
07/06/2018                   CARROLL            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN EAST OF CARROLLTON, ALONG HORSLEY
            MILL RD BETWEEN FORDS RD AND PLEASANT HILL RD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800615

DJN