Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
239 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
North and Central Georgia is currently wedged between a sfc low
pressure towards the SW and a surface high pressure towards the
NE putting the forecast area in moist southeasterly flow for the
afternoon/evening. Ongoing scattered showers should continue into
the early evening with isolated thunderstorms possible. However,
the morning soundings showed quasi-moist adiabatic temperature
profiles combined with higher pressure aloft which are producing
long and skinny CAPE profiles with MLCAPE struggling to reach 1500
J/kg. This should limit thunderstorm potential compared to typical
summertime conditions in the area. A trough from the surface low
stretched over AL will keep the primary forcing for storms near the
AL/GA boarder.

Tomorrow, a mid-level inverted ridge with an accompanied dry slot
look to move through the area which will help to limit
precipitation potential with only a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the NW half of the forecast area, including the
ATL metro. Potential will be higher for the southeastern half of the
CWA but precip chances will max out around 40% due to some models
resolving a potential wave of storms moving into GA in the late
afternoon/early evening. With drier air creating less cloud cover,
temps should rise into the lower 90s with heat indices in the upper
90s and lower triple digits.

22

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast for the long term
period of the forecast.

Easterly flow aloft and at the surface will continue through the end
of the week. A wave will move in from the east by late in the week,
increasing the pops Thursday. The weekend looks to be pretty
unsettled, with a front dropping down from the north later Friday
into Saturday. The boundary looks to dissipate by Sunday.

Temps are expected to average right around normal. The thicker cloud
cover in the easterly flow should help temps remain the upper 80s to
lower 90s. However, the humidities will remain high due to the
abundant low level moisture.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Update... Mostly VFR conditions today. Current
scattered MVFR cigs expected to rise to VFR through the afternoon.
Thunderstorm potential for any one TAF site is low, but enough to
warrant TEMPO groups for CSG and ATL sites from 22Z-02Z. Winds
will stay out of the E-SE through the period. Overnight SCT/BKN
sky cover could produce some MVFR cigs and vsbys where winds are
calm by the early morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on TSRA potential.
High on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
Atlanta         74  90  73  88 /  40  20  20  30
Blairsville     67  87  67  85 /  30  20  20  30
Cartersville    72  91  72  89 /  40  20  20  30
Columbus        74  92  74  90 /  40  20  20  30
Gainesville     72  90  72  87 /  30  20  20  30
Macon           73  92  72  90 /  30  40  30  30
Rome            72  91  72  90 /  50  20  10  30
Peachtree City  72  91  72  88 /  40  20  20  30
Vidalia         73  92  73  88 /  20  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
953 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
953 AM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
today into tonight. A few storms could be strong and possibly
severe with strong gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day through Sunday,
most so during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms
could be strong to severe with strong gusty winds, frequent
lightning and isolated flooding from heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
418 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

GAZ113-022100-
Toombs GA-
418 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TOOMBS COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Gordonia Altamaha
State Park, or near Reidsville...moving northwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lyons, Vidalia, Santa Claus, Center, Toombs Central, Ohoopee, New
Branch, Ponderosa, South Thompson, English Eddy, Grays Landing, Rock
Springs, Cedar Crossing and Johnson Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3194 8228 3193 8230 3195 8231 3193 8231
      3194 8238 3195 8237 3196 8238 3195 8239
      3196 8241 3195 8240 3197 8244 3219 8240
      3226 8222 3216 8218 3214 8220 3191 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 123DEG 10KT 3205 8217

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
531 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

GAZ086-098-112-113-022200-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
531 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TOOMBS...
SOUTHWESTERN EMANUEL...EASTERN TREUTLEN AND NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 531 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Lexsy, or 12 miles
south of Swainsboro...moving west at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds 40 to 50 mph...frequent lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Swainsboro, Lyons, Vidalia, Oak Park, Nunez, Tarrytown, Covena,
Norristown, Kibbee, Norristown Junction, Lexsy, Zaidee, Gillis
Springs and Normantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3251 8223 3220 8233 3227 8257 3249 8255
      3264 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 112DEG 9KT 3242 8237

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
549 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

GAZ085-086-022215-
Emanuel GA-Johnson GA-
549 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EMANUEL AND
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 549 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Kite, or 11 miles east
of Wrightsville...moving northwest at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Wrightsville, Kite, New Home, Meeks, Blundale and Donovan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3259 8249 3264 8268 3278 8274 3280 8268
      3278 8266 3279 8262 3282 8255 3279 8249
      3277 8246 3276 8244 3277 8243 3275 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 117DEG 11KT 3271 8252

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
606 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

GAZ085-086-097-098-111-112-022230-
Wheeler GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Johnson GA-Montgomery GA-
Laurens GA-
606 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WHEELER...WESTERN
EMANUEL...TREUTLEN...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY
AND EASTERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 605 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Meeks to near Barnhill...and moving west at 30
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Soperton, East Dublin, Adrian, Tarrytown, Lothair, Orland,
Rockledge, Orianna, Barnhill, Minter, Lovett, Brewton, Lowery,
Blackville and Scott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3269 8286 3251 8295 3227 8298 3223 8259
      3259 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 103DEG 26KT 3262 8264 3232 8272

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
614 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

GAZ074-085-097-022245-
Washington GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
614 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...JOHNSON
AND NORTHERN LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 614 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Wrightsville...moving
west at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Wrightsville, Harrison, Kite, Spann, Donovan, New Home, Meeks,
Tuckers Crossroad and Pringle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3270 8249 3269 8250 3266 8249 3264 8249
      3264 8251 3262 8252 3260 8256 3267 8288
      3282 8288 3291 8276 3283 8252 3281 8252
      3278 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 099DEG 17KT 3271 8267

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
632 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

GAZ074-084-085-097-022300-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
632 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON AND LAURENS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

At 632 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Tuckers Crossroad to near Lowery...and moving
northwest at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dublin, Wrightsville, East Dublin, Dexter, Dudley, Rentz, Montrose,
Spann, Tuckers Crossroad, Nicklesville, Minter, Lovett, Harlow,
Chappells Mill, Brewton and Lowery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3236 8307 3258 8318 3274 8313 3282 8289
      3268 8266 3239 8271 3239 8272 3237 8272
      3236 8273 3235 8273 3233 8275 3233 8274
      3232 8273
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 120DEG 26KT 3272 8284 3236 8286

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH