Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
239 PM EDT Mon Jul 2 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
North and Central Georgia is currently wedged between a sfc low
pressure towards the SW and a surface high pressure towards the
NE putting the forecast area in moist southeasterly flow for the
afternoon/evening. Ongoing scattered showers should continue into
the early evening with isolated thunderstorms possible. However,
the morning soundings showed quasi-moist adiabatic temperature
profiles combined with higher pressure aloft which are producing
long and skinny CAPE profiles with MLCAPE struggling to reach 1500
J/kg. This should limit thunderstorm potential compared to typical
summertime conditions in the area. A trough from the surface low
stretched over AL will keep the primary forcing for storms near the
AL/GA boarder.

Tomorrow, a mid-level inverted ridge with an accompanied dry slot
look to move through the area which will help to limit
precipitation potential with only a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the NW half of the forecast area, including the
ATL metro. Potential will be higher for the southeastern half of the
CWA but precip chances will max out around 40% due to some models
resolving a potential wave of storms moving into GA in the late
afternoon/early evening. With drier air creating less cloud cover,
temps should rise into the lower 90s with heat indices in the upper
90s and lower triple digits.

22

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast for the long term
period of the forecast.

Easterly flow aloft and at the surface will continue through the end
of the week. A wave will move in from the east by late in the week,
increasing the pops Thursday. The weekend looks to be pretty
unsettled, with a front dropping down from the north later Friday
into Saturday. The boundary looks to dissipate by Sunday.

Temps are expected to average right around normal. The thicker cloud
cover in the easterly flow should help temps remain the upper 80s to
lower 90s. However, the humidities will remain high due to the
abundant low level moisture.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION... 18Z Update... Mostly VFR conditions today. Current
scattered MVFR cigs expected to rise to VFR through the afternoon.
Thunderstorm potential for any one TAF site is low, but enough to
warrant TEMPO groups for CSG and ATL sites from 22Z-02Z. Winds
will stay out of the E-SE through the period. Overnight SCT/BKN
sky cover could produce some MVFR cigs and vsbys where winds are
calm by the early morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on TSRA potential.
High on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  72  89 /  20  30  30  30
Atlanta         74  90  73  88 /  40  20  20  30
Blairsville     67  87  67  85 /  30  20  20  30
Cartersville    72  91  72  89 /  40  20  20  30
Columbus        74  92  74  90 /  40  20  20  30
Gainesville     72  90  72  87 /  30  20  20  30
Macon           73  92  72  90 /  30  40  30  30
Rome            72  91  72  90 /  50  20  10  30
Peachtree City  72  91  72  88 /  40  20  20  30
Vidalia         73  92  73  88 /  20  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...22

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