Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
315 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Upper level ridge still building in place over the gulf states,
keeping our area generally in west to northwest flow through the
short term period. A perturbation moving through the flow in
addition to diurnal heating will bring us showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon with another round of showers and
thunderstorms possible this evening, mainly across northern
Georgia. Have kept slight chance to chance pops across the area
for isolated to scattered coverage of showers/storms this
afternoon and evening. A few severe storms are not out of the
question, especially across northern Georgia.

For Wednesday, diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected
again in the afternoon/evening. Later on Wednesday afternoon, a
short wave trough will push through the area and with it a focus
for showers and thunderstorms in conjunction with diurnal heating.
These showers/storms may linger into the evening as well. The
best chances for the strongest storms will be across northern
Georgia. A few storms may become severe with the main hazard being
damaging winds.

High temperatures today and Wednesday are in the 80s and 90s. Max
heat index values are around 100-103 in central Georgia for both
today and Wednesday. Trends will continue to be monitored as this
is just below heat advisory criteria.

Reaves

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

The forecast is on track with little changes needed at this
update. A trough and associated front will move through later
Wednesday through the overnight which should be the axis by which
we see most convection during this time. Expecting linear
development of showers and thunderstorms to move through from
north to central GA. The boundary will sag south of the area and
will be the catalysis for thunderstorms develop during Thursday
and Friday afternoons. By the weekend into next week, strong high
pressure will build overhead with ample ridging aloft. This will
result in widespread diurnal convection each afternoon/evening.

Temperatures will be AOA normal through the period.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 AM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018/

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

As the long term portion begins, a shortwave trough will be
pushing through the region late Wed evening into Wed night.
Although guidance is not really emphasizing this feature, fell
combination of this enhanced lift and residual instability will be
enough to keep convection going into the first half of the
overnight period.

Will continue in a NW flow type pattern through the end of the
week so will be difficult to time individual impulses within the
flow. May be less of a diurnal trend to pops during this time
period but for now have continued to indicate highest pops during
the afternoon hours. Some indications of perhaps some drier air
working into the NE corner of the forecast area Fri but may not be
enough to shut down convection completely given aforementioned
lift.

Mid and upper level high moves over the NE states for the weekend
into early next week. Deep layer moisture will traverse the
southern extent of this to bring higher rain chances back to the
area. Precipitable water increases to 2 inches by late Sat and
continues into Sun. Some notable dry air to move in from the east
by early next week with PW values falling to at or slightly below
seasonal norms.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions across the area. Expecting convection
across the area from about 18-02z and have a tempo at all sites
for TSRA. Coverage is looking to be more isolated to scattered
this afternoon. Expecting a little more cloud cover tomorrow
afternoon with bkn cigs, although they should remain VFR. Winds
remain west to southwest and light, less than 10 kts, through the
period.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  90  72  93 /  50  50  40  30
Atlanta         74  90  75  91 /  30  40  40  40
Blairsville     66  84  67  86 /  50  60  50  30
Cartersville    71  90  72  91 /  40  50  40  40
Columbus        76  93  76  93 /  20  30  30  50
Gainesville     71  88  72  90 /  50  50  40  30
Macon           74  93  74  94 /  20  40  30  50
Rome            71  90  72  92 /  30  50  40  30
Peachtree City  72  91  73  91 /  30  40  30  50
Vidalia         75  94  76  94 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Reaves
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...Reaves

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
254 PM EDT Tue Jun 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across north and central
Georgia this afternoon. Isolated storms will be strong to severe,
with the main hazards damaging winds, large hail, frequent
lightning, and isolated flooding from heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

There will be an enhanced chance of strong to severe storms later
Wednesday into Wednesday night as an upper level storm system
moves across the area bringing likely storm coverage to North
Georgia.

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day for the rest of the
time period through next week, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours with few storms becoming strong to severe each day
with gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated flooding from
heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

GAZ042-261930-
Carroll GA-
302 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

At 302 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Graham, or 13 miles
northeast of Wedowee...moving northeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Bowdon, Roopville, Tyus and Blackjack Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3364 8522 3343 8511 3343 8529 3358 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 246DEG 7KT 3346 8533

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

GAZ042-052-262000-
Carroll GA-Heard GA-
327 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL AND
NORTHWESTERN HEARD COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 327 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Blackjack Mountain, or
14 miles northwest of Franklin...moving east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Bowdon, Ephesus, Centralhatchee, Tyus, Blackjack Mountain and
Roosterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3364 8522 3338 8511 3337 8528 3359 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 249DEG 4KT 3344 8527

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

GAZ002-004-011-012-019-262045-
Chattooga GA-Whitfield GA-Walker GA-Gordon GA-Floyd GA-
415 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHATTOOGA...SOUTHERN
WHITFIELD...SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...NORTHWESTERN GORDON AND NORTHERN
FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Villanow, or 7 miles
east of Lafayette...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dalton, Calhoun, Resaca, Naomi, Mill Creek, Suttles Mill, Villanow,
Sugar Valley, Lake Marvin and Tilton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3475 8489 3471 8490 3472 8492 3471 8494
      3469 8491 3468 8491 3468 8494 3467 8493
      3465 8492 3448 8497 3459 8526 3476 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 283DEG 7KT 3466 8515

WIND...40MPH