Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Diurnal heating combined with forcing from a low pressure system
racing across Kentucky will provide scattered thunderstorms for the
area this afternoon. Models have underestimated the coverage of the
storms so far but are beginning to catch up, estimating a wave of
convection that will leave the area later this evening. An Upper
level ridge building in along the Gulf coast should help to keep
storms slightly weaker, and more scattered/unorganized than they my
be otherwise but a Marginal risk for a few severe storms will be
possible for the forecast area. Tomorrow, convection is expected to
be even more widespread as the upper level flow begins to turn from
out of the northwest, and impulses ahead of a stronger low pressure
system out of the midwest looks to push through.

Temperatures are expected to continue on
the warm side with heat index values across central GA ranging from
100 to 106. Have issued a heat advisory for the majority of central
GA today and will monitor conditions for Tuesday to see if another
one will be needed tomorrow.

22

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The long term portion begins as perhaps the most active period of
the entire extended. We will see a strong shortwave arrive late in
the day from the Tennessee Valley. This will coincide with peak
heating for Wed afternoon and CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG.
Associated cold pool with shortwave looks to drop 500mb temps to
around -9C, sufficient for some robust updrafts and decent hail
potential. Should also see some good wind potential as downdraft
CAPE increases through the afternoon as a likely line of storms
approaches. Have gone with highest pops for northern tier for now
but could certainly see pops needing to be raised for remainder as
Wed approaches with potential for a decent coverage event.

Focus will shift to Central GA for Thu afternoon as shortwave
traverses the remainder of the forecast area. Cannot rule out
additional small pop activity across the north although mid level
temps will be warming by this time period.

Some drying noted for the weekend, especially across NE sections
where will only carry isolated pops for Sat. Upper level high
builds in north of the area through the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast through early next week. Eventually some deep layer
moisture will rotate around the southern periphery of this feature
to bring higher pops back to the area for early next week.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Ongoing scattered SHRA/TSRA around TAF areas, currently impacting
MCN and ATL sites. A line of forcing coming from NW GA will keep
scattered SHRA/TSRA around the area through the afternoon and
early evening. Expecting VFR conditions otherwise in regards to
ceilings and VSBYs. Light winds out of the west at ATL, swinging
from out of the SW early tomorrow morning.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence in convective coverage this afternoon.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  71  91 /  30  50  50  50
Atlanta         75  91  74  90 /  30  50  40  50
Blairsville     66  85  67  86 /  30  50  40  60
Cartersville    72  92  72  90 /  30  50  40  50
Columbus        76  94  76  93 /  30  40  30  40
Gainesville     72  90  71  88 /  30  50  40  50
Macon           74  94  74  93 /  30  50  40  50
Rome            72  92  72  91 /  20  40  40  50
Peachtree City  73  92  72  90 /  30  50  30  50
Vidalia         75  94  75  92 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...
Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Harris...Houston...
Jefferson...Johnson...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Montgomery...
Muscogee...Peach...Pulaski...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...22

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