Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Continued more of the same with afternoon showers and thunderstorms
cross the area today and monday. Will also see more low clouds and
fog in the morning with a very weak summertime pattern in place
across the region. The main features across the area continue to be
the large upper level ridge and the weak upper level disturbance
that have been rotating over GA/AL/Northern FL and continue to help
enhance diurnally driven convection everyday. The ridge has been
helping to suppress the activity but it is also keeping this weak
pattern in place with no signs of this changing anytime soon. still
expecting strong storms to develop in the short term with isolated
severe storms as well. The greatest threats will be gusty winds,
frequent lightning, period of heavy rain and small hail.

For those with outdoor activities planned today, stay weather aware.
If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
lightning. You should seek shelter if you see lightning or hear
thunder. In addition, Heat Indices will range from the middle to
upper 90s across much of the state today and Monday. If you plan on
being outdoors for long periods of time, take frequent breaks to
cool off and stay hydrated.

01

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Long term period begins with the continued pattern of mid and
upper level ridge firmly entrenched over the area but plenty of
moisture trapped at the low levels under this feature. This
pattern will continue into Wed and the first part of Thu
characterized by low to mid range chance pops and mainly a heavy
rain potential as mid levels warm to -5C at 500mb.

Ridge does flatten out a bit into late week as shortwave energy
flows in from the central plains and travels across northern
portions of the Tennessee Valley. This will allow for a temporary
increase in pops across the northern CWA by Friday afternoon. Main
moisture axis and energy looks to remain north of the area
thereafter and a return to low to mid range sct pops looks in the
offing.

Did reload latest long term guidance but left pops largely alone
as they represent above thinking well.

Deese

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
More diurnal convection today and Monday. Ceilings are in the
MVFR to VFR range across the area and will eventually become all
VFR later today. Will see more MVFR and some IFR ceilings move
back in overnight through Mon morning. Ceilings will lift through
Monday afternoon similar to this morning. Winds are expected to be
mainly out of the SW at 8kt or less. Will see some gust to near
20kt in and around any TSRA development this afternoon and Monday
afternoon. VSBYs will stay VFR except some brief periods of IFR
VSBYs in and around thunderstorms activity.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  91  71  93 /  30  30  20  20
Atlanta         72  88  73  90 /  40  30  20  30
Blairsville     65  86  66  87 /  30  40  20  40
Cartersville    70  89  70  91 /  40  30  20  30
Columbus        72  89  73  91 /  40  30  20  30
Gainesville     70  89  71  90 /  30  30  20  30
Macon           71  90  72  92 /  40  30  20  30
Rome            71  90  71  91 /  30  30  20  30
Peachtree City  70  88  71  90 /  40  30  20  30
Vidalia         72  90  73  92 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
409 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-181200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
409 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue into tonight. Some storms
may be strong with occasional isolated severe storms possible.
The main threats will be isolated flooding from locally heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms everyday for the next week,
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could
be strong to severe each day with strong wind gusts, frequent
lightning and isolated flooding from heavy rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

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