Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
321 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

An early start to convection across portions of the NE but a
decreasing trend in activity of late as outflows were sent east of
the area. Despite this, CAPE values, even mixed layer, of 3000
J/KG plus reside across the I20 corridor. Beginning to see this
influence as isolated activity begins across the Atlanta metro.
Convergence of NE activity and residual outflows and activity
just south of AHN should coalesce in to a more substantial area of
thunderstorms for this evening. Strong to isolated severe storms
remain possible as seen from activity already seen over NE GA
today.

With deep layer moisture increasing overnight, models hinting at
even some nocturnal activity across the SW portions. Could be more
stratus and light rain with just embedded convective activity but
will bear watching. An early start to convection for Sunday as
activity to the SW develops to the NE as we acquire a SW steering
flow. Lapse rates slightly steeper but overall cloud cover will be
more substantial. All in all, expect a slight increase in rain
chances and coverage and have painted likely pops for south
central portions of the forecast area.

Deese

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

No major changes made to the extended forecast. Days 3 through 7
continue to be largely dominated by broad high pressure ridge over
the eastern US. Weak low pressure over the state will dampen out by
Monday, though the better moisture will remain over the state. The
high pressure ridge will help to suppress diurnal convection
somewhat, but there remains enough moisture, instability and heating
to trigger isolated to scattered convection each afternoon and
evening. Ridge axis moves eastward by mid week, and shifts over the
Atlantic late in the week, as low pressure approaches the Tennessee
Valley from the Midwest. Have continued with slightly higher pops
for the latter half of the week as the diminishing ridge influence
allows for better precip coverage. Expect slightly higher than
normal temperatures through the week with highs generally in the 90s
and lows in the 70s.
01

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
Early start to convection after the dissipation of early morning
low stratus over south and west quadrants of GA. NE activity is
being picked up by the hi resolution models and brining it toward
the ATL terminals this afternoon. Inserted TEMPO for all sites
with RYY and PDK the earliest for the northern sites. Models show
very late start but pushed that up slightly to 21Z for ATL. Re-
development of MVFR cigs looks likely tonight, especially for
areas that get rain. Subsequent issuances will likely require Prob
30 or TEMPO given anticipated slightly higher rain chances for
Sunday afternoon.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
Medium on TSRA onset timing.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  70  92 /  40  30  30  30
Atlanta         72  87  72  89 /  40  60  40  30
Blairsville     65  85  65  86 /  30  40  30  40
Cartersville    70  88  70  90 /  30  50  40  30
Columbus        73  87  72  91 /  40  60  40  30
Gainesville     70  87  70  89 /  40  40  30  30
Macon           72  88  71  92 /  40  60  40  30
Rome            71  89  71  90 /  30  40  30  30
Peachtree City  70  87  70  90 /  40  60  40  40
Vidalia         73  89  73  91 /  50  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
338 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171945-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
338 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected during this afternoon and
evening. The highest coverage is expected to be south of
Interstate 20 and over the northeast Georgia mountains. Some
storms could be strong and an isolated severe storm cannot be
ruled out. The main threats will be isolated flooding from locally
heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe
each day with strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
139 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

GAZ013-014-021-161815-
Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Pickens GA-
139 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DAWSON...
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM
EDT...

At 139 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Nelson, or near
Jasper...moving east at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Canton, Jasper, Ball Ground, Nelson, Free Home, Hollis Lathem
Reservoir, Marblehill, Holbrook, Lathemtown, Tate and Reavis
Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3443 8413 3433 8418 3433 8426 3419 8426
      3419 8427 3432 8453 3449 8445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 291DEG 11KT 3438 8441

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
213 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

GAZ021-161845-
Cherokee GA-
213 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 213 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Reavis Mountain to Ball Ground to near Waleska...and
moving south at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Canton, Ball Ground and Reavis Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3430 8432 3425 8443 3427 8456 3438 8449
      3438 8440 3437 8440 3438 8439 3438 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 019DEG 9KT 3437 8433 3434 8439 3435 8448

WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
312 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW DAHLONEGA         34.55N  84.05W
06/16/2018                   LUMPKIN            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF POWERLINES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF HORTON
            RD. AND ARBORVIEW DR. IN LUMPKIN COUNTY, GA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800339

JKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
323 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 PM     LIGHTNING        4 NE MCKEE              34.50N  84.10W
06/16/2018                   LUMPKIN            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE THAT CAUSED A CAMPER TO
            CATCH FIRE ON GEIRREIN ROAD IN LUMPKIN COUNTY, GA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800340

JKING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
342 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

GAZ039-051-162015-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-
342 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALIAFERRO AND SOUTHWESTERN
WILKES COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 342 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ficklin, or 7 miles
southwest of Washington...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Washington, Ficklin, Lundberg and Sandy Cross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3360 8278 3361 8285 3378 8293 3374 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 189DEG 8KT 3365 8281

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
413 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

GAZ039-051-162045-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-
413 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALIAFERRO AND SOUTHERN WILKES
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 413 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sandy Cross, or near
Crawfordville. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Crawfordville, Sharon, Ficklin, Sandy Cross and Alexander Stephens
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3368 8288 3362 8272 3353 8279 3358 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 037DEG 2KT 3361 8284

WIND...40MPH