Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1047 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.UPDATE...

Ongoing forecast looks in good shape as area of stratus and fog
continues to burn off from north to south. East of this area,
already seeing mixed layer CAPE values in excess of 2500 J/KG and
with convective temp already reached, should not be long for
development. Current gradient portrayed in grid looks on target
with best chances over SW zones but may beef up values on east
portion given aforementioned instability.

&&

Deese

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 729 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
High pressure ridge aloft is centered over the ARKLATEX, while a
longwave trough is situated along the eastern seaboard. A shear axis
is bi-secting the state of GA. At the surface, a weak frontal
boundary continues across northern GA.

Hi-res models are showing isolated to scattered coverage of storms
today. Do think there will be two main areas for convective
development today, the higher terrain of NE GA and areas along and
south of I-20. A bit more coverage is expected on Sunday, as cooler
temperatures aloft will serve to steepen the lapse rates a bit.
Steering flow remains aob 10kt for today, so storms will continue to
be slow moving, heavy rain producers. Winds are bit higher in the
boundary layer on Sunday, so storms will move a bit more, but remain
locally heavy rainfall producers.

As usual, strong storms are likely each day producing gusty winds,
frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy rainfall. Isolated
severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Any severe thunderstorm
that develops will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts
and hail. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, keep weather
aware. If you hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
lightning. Also, heat indices will creep into the upper 90s today
and will be in the lower to middle 90s on Sunday. If you will be
outdoors for long periods of time, take breaks to cool off and stay
hydrated.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
Extended period continues to be largely dominated by broad high
pressure ridge over the eastern US. Weak low pressure over the
state will dampen out by Monday, though the better moisture will
remain over the state. The high pressure ridge will help to
suppress diurnal convection somewhat, but there remains enough
moisture, instability and heating to trigger isolated to scattered
convection each afternoon and evening. Ridge axis moves eastward
by mid week, and shifts over the Atlantic late in the week, as low
pressure approaches the Tennessee Valley from the Midwest. Have
continued with slightly higher pops for the latter half of the
week as the diminishing ridge influence allows for better precip
coverage. Expect slightly higher than normal temperatures through
the week with highs generally in the 90s and lows in the 70s.

31

AVIATION...
12Z Update...
LIFR cigs at a few of the northern airports this morning, with
IFR at the southern airports this morning. Low clods and stratus
should lift through mid morning with afternoon cigs 035-040. For
now, the best chances for sct convection are in the south. Winds
will once again be an issue today. Early morning light/variable/SW
flow will switch to the SE during the early afternoon. SW flow
expected once again after sunset.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
MED confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          91  70  90  70 /  40  40  40  20
Atlanta         89  72  87  72 /  40  40  50  30
Blairsville     86  65  85  65 /  40  40  50  30
Cartersville    91  70  88  69 /  40  30  50  40
Columbus        88  73  88  72 /  40  40  40  30
Gainesville     89  70  88  70 /  40  30  40  30
Macon           90  72  89  72 /  40  40  40  20
Rome            92  71  89  70 /  30  30  50  30
Peachtree City  89  70  87  70 /  40  40  50  30
Vidalia         90  73  90  73 /  40  50  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Deese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
454 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-170900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
454 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon into this
evening. Better coverage is expected to be south of Interstate 20
and over the northeast Georgia mountains. Some storms could be
strong and an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out. The main
threats will be isolated flooding from locally heavy rainfall,
strong damaging winds and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to severe
each day with strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1234 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

GAZ013>015-161700-
Dawson GA-Pickens GA-Lumpkin GA-
1234 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DAWSON...EASTERN PICKENS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

At 1233 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Fausett Lake, or 9
miles east of Jasper...moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dawsonville, Amicalola Falls State Park, Sequoyah Lake, Len Foote
Hike Inn, Lake Tamarack, Hollis Lathem Reservoir, Auraria,
Marblehill, McKee, Juno and Fausett Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3447 8402 3433 8424 3433 8426 3438 8426
      3438 8432 3452 8441 3458 8431 3457 8429
      3457 8426 3460 8426 3460 8422 3461 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 322DEG 7KT 3452 8427

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
103 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

GAZ013>016-021-023-161745-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-Cherokee GA-Pickens GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
103 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HALL...DAWSON...
NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE...SOUTHEASTERN PICKENS...SOUTHERN WHITE AND
SOUTHERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 102 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Cleveland to Tate...and moving southeast at 10
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Dahlonega, Jasper, Cleveland, Dawsonville, Ball Ground, Nelson,
Clermont, Dougherty, Marblehill, Mossy Creek, Juno, Silver City,
Murrayville, Lake Tamarack, Hollis Lathem Reservoir, Auraria, Tate,
Reavis Mountain, Garland and McKee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3453 8363 3451 8367 3443 8362 3433 8411
      3433 8426 3430 8426 3427 8442 3447 8450
      3465 8379
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 325DEG 9KT 3458 8384 3445 8438

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH