Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
443 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated to cancel Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Organized convection
has exited the county warning area, and what is left is isolated
in nature, and entering an area that has already been worked over.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018/

UPDATE...

18z Aviation and Short Term updates below.

Baker

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Strongest convection is progressing as thought to be now confined
more in east central GA (southeastern tier coordinated to be in
SVR Watch until 8 PM though likely can cancel earlier). This is
strongest just east of the upper shortwave axis, now oriented just
east and south of Macon. Still thinking some isolated damaging
winds, hail, and heavy rain/minor flooding as the main threats
through the afternoon given the lingering steeper mid level lapse
rates and SB CAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range for mainly the
current watch area. Otherwise just slight to low end chance of
general thunder elsewhere with daytime heating.

Main forcing mechanism for convection Sunday will be with a CFP
pushing SEWD through the day. Not confident on having more than
scattered development ahead and along the front so just kept high
end chance pops though updates may introduce likely pops for some
portion. Have a broader area of a SPC Day 2 Marginal Risk that is
mainly for areas along and south of the Atlanta Metro. Any impulse
in the NW flow aloft could help aid more widespread organized
development, and continued main threats would be with damaging
winds and large hail.

Some drier...yes drier dewpts in the 50s should filter into
northern portions of the CWA by Sunday night allowing for
overnight lows reaching the low to mid 60s (with even 50s in the
NE mtns). Dare say a drier break is earned.

Baker

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

No adjustments made to the forecast and previous discussion
follows...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 720 AM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018/

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

The final in a series of strong shortwaves will be pushing out of
the area as we begin the long term period. Will need to hold onto
some mid range pops for portions of Central GA but should be well
out of the area by 12Z Monday. Much drier air will push in its
wake with precipitable water falling to less than a quarter of an
inch, quite a change from the 2 inch plus values we have been
seeing. This will allow for the first pop free day in quite a
while and much needed drying out period.

Although PWs increase slightly for Tue, certainly nothing
impressive enough to get pops back to the area and the dry
forecast will continue. Some discrepancies in the models enter in
by Wed with the GFS showing dry conditions through Thu now and the
ECMWF indicating return moisture for Central GA. Have used a blend
for now which yields isolated pops for both days across Central
GA.

Shortwave activity increases once again for weeks end and into
next weekend in tandem with an increase in deep layer moisture.
The combination of these 2 will result in a return to mid range
chance pops which may end up being likely should models continue
to trend in this direction.

Deese

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Mainly VFR conditions with some SCT/BKN cu in the 3500-4500 ft
range though could have reduced vsbys with some lingering isolated
showers/storms here in the next few hours. Conditions should
mainly scatter out with diminished precip after 22-01z from the
north to south as a disturbance pushes SE. Winds mainly on west to
WNW side 6-8 kts unless higher gusts from storms, then near 5 kts
overnight. Southern sites could have some morning lower cigs near
MVFR flirt from the south but not confident on coverage enough to
include. Similar cu field tomorrow and prob30 for TSRA after 18z
with cold front pushing south during the day.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all other elements.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  65  85 /  20  50  30   0
Atlanta         72  89  65  84 /  10  50  40   0
Blairsville     64  83  57  79 /  10  50  30   0
Cartersville    69  88  60  83 /  10  50  30   0
Columbus        73  92  68  88 /  20  50  40   0
Gainesville     70  88  64  83 /  10  50  30   0
Macon           71  92  67  88 /  30  50  40   0
Rome            69  88  61  84 /  10  50  30   0
Peachtree City  70  90  63  85 /  10  50  40   0
Vidalia         73  93  72  89 /  40  50  40   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
415 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
415 PM EDT Sat Jun 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will
continue into the evening hours, particularly over central
Georgia, but will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Isolated
strong to severe storms will be possible with this activity with
the primary threats being damaging winds and large hail.

The chances of thunderstorms drops off quickly into the overnight
period, then returns to north Georgia after sunrise.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Another strong system will push through the area late tonight
through Sunday bringing additional chances of severe storms
including damaging winds and hail to the area.

No hazardous weather is expected Monday and Tuesday.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over portions
of central Georgia on Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase for Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

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