Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
629 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.UPDATE...
Update to remove additional counties from the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 608 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018/

UPDATE...
Update to remove counties from Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

31

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018/

UPDATE...

18z Aviation and Short Term updates below.

Baker

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

Hi-res consensus is looking to be trending fairly well with the
evolution of several quasi-linear clusters of strong to severe
storms in north GA currently pushing ESE at the time of this
discussion. Plenty of forcing at work here with a higher
amplitude upper shortwave in conjunction with several outflow
boundaries (one remnant from this morning as convection diminished
in the far NW and triggered recent convection across the Atlanta
metro). Mid level lapse rates are pretty steep along with SB
CAPEs 3000-4000 J/kg so have mention of severe potential in the
grids with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall threats.
SPC currently has Slight and upgraded Enhanced Risk issued along
with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch across the central majority of
the CWA until 10 PM.

Another disturbance could clip the western portion of the area
late tomorrow into Sunday given the transition to NW flow aloft so
will need to watch any associated increased strong to severe
potential, otherwise the main shortwave axis and available moisture
should allow for diurnally enhanced convection tomorrow
afternoon/evening.

Baker

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

After a relatively quiet end to the short term forecast period,
things ramp back up a bit on Sunday as we begin the long term
period. By 12z Sunday an are of sfc low pressure should be located
in the vicinity of the OH Valley as a strong shortwave impulse
progresses into the Western Great Lakes. A cold front will extend
from this sfc low and should be draped southward from the TN Valley
into the lower MS Valley. This frontal boundary is expected to
traverse the state of Georgia through the day. It should also be
accompanies by a subtle mid level impulse which will provide
sufficient lower and upper level support for the atmosphere amidst a
very moist airmass as dewpoints reside in the 70s. By the
afternoon...given appreciable lift along with increasing
thermodynamics...showers and thunderstorms will rapidly increase in
coverage and intensity by the afternoon and evening hours...in
addition to any ongoing activity as the front enter the CWA. This
will allow for the risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms to
exist through Sunday. SPC has already outlined portions of the area
in a marginal risk.

The good /perhaps wonderful!/ news lies in the wake of the cold
front by early Monday as much drier air builds into the area.
Current guidance is advertising the potential for dewpoints to drop
into the 50s for most of the area through the day Monday! Slight
timing discrepancy noted between the GFS/EC as the EC pushes the
front out more slowly. But the main point is that high pressure
will dominate the sensible weather in the lower levels with highs
lower 80s north to upper 80s central. Rain chances will be largely
nonexistent for the first time in quite a while.

High pressure should dominate thru Tuesday and keep things dry
before the next shortwave trough pushes across the area on
Wednesday. Guidance indicates the old cold frontal boundary will
still exist across southern Georgia ans this wave may help aid in
thunderstorm development in its vicinity Wednesday afternoon.
However...most of this coverage should remain south of our central
zones.

Mid level ridging attempts to build in from the west a bit more
through the remainder of the week. This will allow temps to moderate
to some extent. Should also begin to see a return to at least slight
chance of afternoon impulse thunderstorms.

Kovacik

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Generally cigs in 3500-4000 ft range with potentially lower and
reduced IFR/MVFR or lower VSBYs in storms as they push across the
northern TAF sites currently into the early evening and eventually
trending towards the southern sites. Some storms strong to severe
with damaging winds and large hail. Included VRB25G35KTs in tempo
groups for northern sites. Lingering alto deck overnight then
potential for MVFR pushing into west of the sites by 10-12z (CSG
has greatest chance for BKN coverage). Winds not associated with
TSRA should be primarily out of the west to NW under 10 kts. Early
morning cigs could be lower if patchy fog occurs from late evening
precip/low level moisture.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low on timing of thunderstorm activity.
Medium on morning ceilings.
High confidence on other elements.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  91  70  91 /  50  30  30  50
Atlanta         71  88  73  89 /  50  40  30  50
Blairsville     63  84  63  84 /  50  30  20  50
Cartersville    68  89  69  89 /  50  30  20  50
Columbus        73  91  74  92 /  60  40  30  50
Gainesville     68  88  70  89 /  50  30  30  50
Macon           72  91  72  93 /  60  40  40  50
Rome            68  90  70  88 /  40  30  20  50
Peachtree City  70  89  71  90 /  50  40  30  50
Vidalia         74  91  73  93 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Hancock...Jones...Twiggs...
Washington...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
301 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for mainly western portions
of north and central Georgia through 10pm tonight. Areas within
the watch have the potential to experience strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, large hail, and
heavy rainfall. Although thunderstorms are not expected to remain
stationary, given recent heavy rainfall, the threat for flash
flooding will exist within stronger thunderstorm activity.

Elsewhere, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. A few of
these storms could become strong with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Another strong system will push through the area late Saturday
night through Sunday bringing additional chances of severe storms
including damaging winds and hail to the area.

No hazardous weather is expected Monday and Tuesday.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms over portions
of central Georgia on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
703 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

GAZ080-081-093-094-012330-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Taylor GA-Crawford GA-
703 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MACON...SOUTHWESTERN
PEACH...EASTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
EDT...

At 703 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Nakomis, or 7 miles
southwest of Fort Valley...moving south at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Marshallville, Winchester and Nakomis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3255 8408 3258 8397 3238 8386 3232 8393
      3233 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 341DEG 19KT 3251 8401

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
721 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

GAZ089-090-012345-
Chattahoochee GA-Muscogee GA-
721 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTAHOOCHEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 721 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over North Fort Benning, or
8 miles east of Columbus...moving southeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cusseta, North Fort Benning, Christopher, Sand Hill, Eelbeck/West
Fort Benning, Vista Terrace, Benning Hills, Jamestown/south Fort
Benning, Benning Park, Renfroe and Manta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3223 8482 3223 8484 3242 8496 3243 8497
      3253 8479 3240 8466 3223 8466 3223 8480
      3222 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 320DEG 25KT 3245 8483

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
736 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE HANNAHS MILL      32.94N  84.33W
06/01/2018                   UPSON              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 LARGE TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN ALONG FRANKLINDALE RD
            NORTH OF THOMASTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800187

THIEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
739 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THOMASTON               32.89N  84.32W
06/01/2018                   UPSON              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN THOMASTON INCLUDING
            ON E LEE ST, S BETHEL ST, BEALL ST, AND DALLAS DR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800188

THIEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW ATLANTIC STATION  33.82N  84.41W
06/01/2018                   FULTON             GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF VERY LARGE TREE FALLING THROUGH
            A HOUSE IN THE 700 BLOCK OF WOODLEY DR. MAJOR DAMAGE TO
            HOME OCCURED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1800189

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
804 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

GAZ090-102-020030-
Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-
804 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHATTAHOOCHEE AND
NORTHERN STEWART COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 804 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Omaha, or 14 miles
southwest of Cusseta...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lumpkin, Richland, Omaha, Charles, Brooklyn, Louvale and Kimbrough.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3213 8506 3218 8501 3220 8496 3221 8498
      3222 8498 3222 8493 3224 8491 3225 8492
      3226 8489 3229 8492 3228 8487 3218 8463
      3216 8465 3215 8464 3208 8464 3200 8465
      3200 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 282DEG 19KT 3221 8500

WIND...40MPH