Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 PM EST Wed Feb 28 2018

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

A warm front slowly lifting north across the area will continue to
bring showers to the northern parts of the area. The heaviest
precipitation should remain in the far north until this evening with
the passage of another shortwave, where most of north Georgia could
see some heavy rain, including parts of the Atl metro.

After a brief lull in activity for many areas overnight and into
early Thursday, a cold front will be pushing into the area from the
northwest. The front will move through the metro in the late
morning/afternoon time frame before moving through central GA in the
evening. There is a marginal risk of severe storms for Thursday with
the line. Even though instability is minimal, there is ample shear
with the system...allowing for the potential for gusty winds with
any thunderstorms embedded in the line as well as the threat of
isolated, brief tornadoes. A flash flood watch is also in effect for
far northern GA through Thursday evening. Cold front is projected
to clear the area by late on Thursday.

Winds will be strong on Thursday ahead of the front in central GA,
with 20-25 mph sustained winds and gusts to near 30 mph. Winds will
also be strong behind the front in the mountains with sustained
winds 20-25 mph and gusts near 35 mph.

High temps on Thursday will remain much above average, but with the
frontal passage Friday morning temps will drop to the 40s across
the area with 30s in the mountains.

Merritt

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

The onset of the long-term forecast period will be characterized by
dry and temperate conditions as high pressure builds into the
region. While Friday will bring ample sunshine, breezy north winds
will usher in cooler temperatures characteristic of early March. The
sunny and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend
with afternoon highs ranging from the upper-50s in north Georgia to
mid-60s in central Georgia. Low temperatures are forecast to be in
the 30s areawide both Saturday and Sunday morning with some readings
at or below freezing possible over portions of far north Georgia
each morning.

The next cold front will begin to approach the state by Monday night
into Tuesday. Shower chances will begin to increase during this time
frame, though discrepancies remain regarding the timing. The GFS
remains a bit faster and weaker with the frontal progression as
compared to the ECMWF. The front will be a quick mover and should
clear the state by next Wednesday.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Light rain has generally cleared from the ATL area TAF sites for
now with some scattered showers remaining in the area. IFR cigs
will remain in the area until around 19Z-20Z, after which MVFR
cigs are expected. A wind shift to the SW is forecast around 19Z-
20Z before returning to the SE around 0Z-1Z. Rain is expected to
move back into the area in the 0Z to 3Z time frame before clearing
start after about 06Z. Could see TSRA with the passage of the cold
front between 17Z and 21Z on Thursday, with gusts up to 30 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on precip timing.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

Merritt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  72  43  64 /  80  80  60   0
Atlanta         60  71  41  59 /  60  90  40   0
Blairsville     51  62  36  54 /  90  90  30   0
Cartersville    59  67  40  58 /  80  90  20   0
Columbus        64  77  46  66 /  30  70  40   0
Gainesville     53  67  40  59 /  90  90  40   0
Macon           63  79  45  67 /  30  60  50   0
Rome            58  66  40  58 /  90  90  20   0
Peachtree City  61  73  41  62 /  50  90  50   0
Vidalia         63  80  50  70 /  20  30  60   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for the following
zones: Catoosa...Dade...Fannin...Gilmer...Lumpkin...Murray...
Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...Merritt
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Merritt

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
851 PM EST WED FEB 28 2018

GAZ001>003-011-010230-
Chattooga GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
851 PM EST WED FEB 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHATTOOGA...
SOUTHWESTERN CATOOSA...WALKER AND SOUTHWESTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL
930 PM EST...

At 849 PM EST...a line of showers and thunderstorms extended from
west of Trenton to west of Rising Fawn and west of Menlo, moving east
at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 35 mph wind, heavy rain, and possibly some
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lafayette, Chickamauga, Trion, Menlo, Naomi, Center Post, Rising
Fawn, Noble, Blue Spring, Linwood, Beaumont, Cloudland, Cloudland
Canyon State Park, Cooper Heights and Rock Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3484 8558 3491 8516 3474 8516 3453 8526
      3447 8550
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 261DEG 31KT 3476 8566 3461 8570 3445 8586

WIND...40MPH