Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
126 PM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1028 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018/

UPDATE...
No major changes to the ongoing forecast needed. Temps, dews and
sky on track. Have made some minor changes to the pops for the
afternoon and have switched from probability to areal wording.
Typical summertime diurnal convection is expected. As in the past
few days, strong storms are likely with some isolated severe
thunderstorms possible. The primary weather hazards are gusty
winds, lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 733 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018/

UPDATE...
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 412 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018/

SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...

Models in good agreement in keeping a moist unstable airmass over
the CWA through the short term. Daytime heating will be the trigger
for convection this afternoon and evening, and again on Monday.
Instabilities are sufficient both today and Monday for a few storms
to become strong with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy
rain. Due to the little or no movement of the storms, brief
localized flooding is possible.

17

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Very little change to the overall moist/tropical regime through
the period. Expecting daily diurnally driven scattered convection
with some possible weak impulses in the north providing a bit
extra forcing for more organized or widespread development. Have
continued mainly 40-50 percent pops each day with potential for
some isolated strong to severe storms in the afternoon/evening
periods. The GFS continues also to have a tropical low pushing
north into some part of the western/central Gulf by next weekend
so have plenty of time to watch for any trends in future
solutions. Temps look to remain near seasonal norms in the mid to
upper 80s for most areas.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Scattered afternoon/evening convection expected this afternoon and
tomorrow. Convection initiation has been starting a little early
~16-17z for the past few days, so have tried to keep that similar
timing. TSRA chances are a little more likely 17-18z to about
23-00z. Winds will remain on the west side and mainly aob 10kt.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  70  90  70 /  40  40  50  40
Atlanta         89  71  88  71 /  40  40  50  30
Blairsville     85  65  84  65 /  40  50  50  30
Cartersville    90  69  89  69 /  40  50  50  30
Columbus        91  72  90  72 /  40  40  50  30
Gainesville     89  69  87  69 /  40  40  50  30
Macon           92  71  91  70 /  40  40  50  30
Rome            91  69  90  69 /  40  50  50  30
Peachtree City  90  69  89  70 /  40  40  50  30
Vidalia         92  73  91  73 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111200-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and into
this evening. A few storms could be strong to severe, with the
main hazards being gusty winds, frequent lightning and isolated
flooding from heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be strong to
severe with gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight, but spotters
are encouraged to submit reports of any severe weather and flooding
through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

GAZ042>044-053-101830-
Douglas GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-South Fulton GA-
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...NORTHERN
COWETA...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 205 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hannah, or 13 miles
east of Carrollton...moving southeast at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Newnan, Fairburn, Palmetto, Whitesburg, Chattahoochee Hill Country,
Dunaway Gardens, Byers Crossroads, Hannah, Roscoe, Seaton Lake,
Fairplay and Madras.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3353 8497 3368 8485 3359 8458 3336 8476
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 302DEG 5KT 3357 8484

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
224 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

GAZ042>044-053-101900-
Douglas GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-South Fulton GA-
224 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DOUGLAS...NORTHWESTERN
COWETA...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 224 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Byers Crossroads, or
10 miles north of Newnan...moving south at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Newnan, Palmetto, Whitesburg, Chattahoochee Hill Country, Dunaway
Gardens, Plant Yates, Byers Crossroads, Cannongate, Arnco-Sargent,
Roscoe, Seaton Lake and Madras.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3354 8497 3362 8477 3344 8463 3335 8492
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 338DEG 8KT 3352 8484

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH