Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
434 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of an upper level trough
over the Four Corners region into northern Chihuahua state in Mexico.
They are due to upward forcing, the right entrance region of upper
level jet, and a moist and unstable airmass. A band of showers and
thunderstorms will gradually form with discreet cells out ahead of
it. Well above normal PWs along with slow or training movement will
continue the threat of heavy rains and flooding, especially in areas
that have received heavy rains recently. Due to this slow movement,
have continued the Flash Flood Watch for the Edwards Plateau and
western Hill Country through 20z to match up with Llano and Gillespie
counties. Further east, while locally heavy rains will occur, the
threat for widespread flash flooding is lower, though some flooding
is possible especially in urban areas where runoff is more rapid.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts up
to 5 inches are expected. In addition, favorable low level shear
will make severe storms possible with damaging winds the main threat,
though cannot rule out a tornado. Showers and thunderstorms will
gradually end from west to east as the trough axis moves across our
area today into tonight. Fair weather is expected on Wednesday as
drier air filters in, in the wake of a weak frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
The fair weather continues for most areas through Thursday night,
although showers and thunderstorms on the Serranias del Burro may
move to Rio Grande Valley before dissipation. On Friday through the
weekend into next week, an upper level trough drops down the west
coast and closes off off the west coast. This causes eastern Pacific
Hurricane Sergio to move northeast, make landfalls as a tropical
storms over central Baja California by Friday and Sonora state of
Mexico by Saturday, then its remnants and moisture move across Texas
this weekend. Southeasterly flow returns increasing lower level
moisture. A stronger cold front moves across our area on Sunday. All
of these features combined with the increased moisture bring chances
of showers and thunderstorms back for Friday through Monday. In the
wake of the frontal passage, the first chill of the fall season is
expected with lows in the 40s in the Hill Country and 50s elsewhere
with highs in the 60s on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              83  66  82  59  79 /  80  60   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  84  66  82  59  79 /  80  60   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  66  84  60  79 /  80  50   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            81  61  80  56  76 /  80  50   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           84  63  87  65  82 /  70  -    0  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        82  63  80  56  77 /  80  60   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             84  64  87  62  81 /  80  30   0  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        84  67  83  60  79 /  80  60   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  69  84  61  81 /  70  70  -    0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       84  67  85  62  80 /  80  50   0  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           84  68  86  64  81 /  80  50   0  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Maverick-Val
Verde-Zavala.

Flash Flood Watch until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for Bandera-Edwards-
Gillespie-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Real-Uvalde.

&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
505 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-101015-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
505 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today into tonight.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with isolated
amounts up to 5 inches possible. There is also a possibility of
severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging winds are the main
threats, however isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, however, all reports are
welcome especially severe and flash flooding.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
434 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018

TXZ183-091015-
Val Verde TX-
434 AM CDT TUE OCT 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

At 434 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Pandale to 7 miles south of
Langtry. Movement was north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Langtry, Shumla, Pandale and Amistad Recreation Area - Pecos River
Boat Ramp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10155 3029 10137 2977 10126 2969 10137
      2975 10142 2977 10140 2975 10144 2978 10145
      2979 10147 2976 10151 2976 10154 2981 10154
      2980 10157 2978 10158 3006 10164
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 202DEG 25KT 3006 10160 2970 10152

BF