Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

A mid level shortwave trough provided enough lift this morning to
keep the remnant cloud coverage this morning and early afternoon to
keep temperatures much lower than previously forecasted. Satellite
observations indicate there will be some clearing pushing over our
area in the next few hours so temps will most likely still get into
the low to mid 90s, but we may escape the upper 90s. This drop in
temperature also decreased the heat index values down below 100
degrees in most locations.  A diffuse boundary is currently located
over northern MO in a SW-NE like orientation and will provide the
main focus for convection late this evening and into overnight.
There appears to be two rounds of convection in the next 24 hours,
with the first occurring late this afternoon into the evening as
storms form over SE Nebraska and advect into NW Missouri after
sunset. This complex of storms will likely be well into the
convective cycle as it moves into Missouri and will be relatively
high based.  MLCAPE values may reach up near 1500-2000 J/kg and
there will be 0-6km bulk shear values near 30kts.  This will create
a brief chance of strong to low end severe weather with isolated
strong winds being the main threat due to a very steep low level
lapse rates with an inverted V type sounding and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg.
This first round of precip will stay mainly north of HWY 36 as it
advects east.  The second round of storms will have stronger forcing
along a weak warm front over northern KS that will be enhanced by a
developing LLJ overnight. This boundary will be enhanced by an upper
level shortwave which will lead to a sustained line of storms than
the first round. This boundary will work its way down through are
area following the LLJ as it pushes through the KC Metro area early
in the morning on Tuesday.  The CAPE will be mostly elevated when
this boundary pushes through, limiting any severe weather chances,
but may provide some isolated to scattered thunderstorms embedded in
the scattered showers.  This boundary looks to stall over our area
tomorrow morning keeping PoPs in the forecast through the afternoon.
Due to the high based nature of these storms the QPF will not be
drought busting, but a widespread 0.25-.5" of rainfall is expected
over the region.

Upper level ridging will build over the Rockies mid week keeping our
area on the edge in a NW to N flow aloft through the rest of the
forecast period. Higher pressure will build into the region on the
backside of this boundary keeping our forecast relatively cool and
dry through the weekend.  GFS does show some signals of diurnal
convection over central MO, but other models have a stronger capping
inversion and keep us dry.  Due to this uncertainty any PoPs on Wed
remain on the lower end. The next chance to any PoPs over the region
is when a shortwave trough pushes into northern MO Friday morning,
but this signal is not strong throughout the models and so there is
still some uncertainty in the PoPs. Temperatures will remain in the
upper 80s to lower 90s through the forecast with light winds out of
the north.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

Despite storms expected this evening through Tuesday morning, most
of this TAF cycle will be VFR. Thunderstorms that will move
across will be rather high based, but there might be several
different rounds of scattered activity, so have broad brushed the
terminals overnight through the mid to late morning hours of
Tuesday. Expect many updates to TAFs as storms near terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-070845-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
340 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Heat indices this afternoon will range from 100 to 103. Storms
 are expected this evening and tonight, some which could become
 strong.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Storms may linger into Tuesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
943 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

MOZ014-015-022>024-070330-
Grundy MO-Daviess MO-Livingston MO-Linn MO-Caldwell MO-
943 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DAVIESS...
SOUTHWESTERN LINN...SOUTHERN GRUNDY...NORTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 943 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Breckenridge, or 10 miles west of Chillicothe, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Jamesport, Breckenridge, Wheeling, Utica, Chula, Laredo,
Ludlow, Mooresville, Lock Springs, Spring Hill, Avalon and Dawn.

LAT...LON 4007 9347 3969 9328 3967 9328 3966 9327
      3965 9329 3962 9364 3965 9390 3994 9391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 256DEG 29KT 3981 9375

Welsh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
952 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

MOZ022-030-031-070330-
Ray MO-Carroll MO-Caldwell MO-
952 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN RAY...WESTERN CARROLL
AND SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 952 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Hardin, or 8 miles northeast of Richmond, moving east
at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Norborne, Hardin, Knoxville and Stet.

LAT...LON 3926 9393 3944 9412 3961 9373 3961 9371
      3950 9356 3925 9349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 256DEG 30KT 3937 9387

Welsh

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1003 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     TSTM WND GST     CHILLICOTHE             39.79N 93.55W
08/06/2018  E50 MPH          LIVINGSTON         MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1025 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

MOZ023-024-031-032-038-039-070400-
Carroll MO-Saline MO-Chariton MO-Lafayette MO-Livingston MO-Linn MO-
1025 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHARITON...LINN...CENTRAL
CARROLL...SALINE...EASTERN LAFAYETTE AND EASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1025 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Wheeling to near Bosworth to
near Corder. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Higginsville, Brookfield, Carrollton, Concordia, Marceline,
Slater, Sweet Springs, Brunswick, Waverly, Keytesville, Meadville,
Hale, Corder, Alma, Laclede, Bosworth, Linneus, Wheeling and Malta
Bend.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 53 and
77.

LAT...LON 3896 9320 3893 9361 3905 9375 3950 9340
      3995 9350 4004 9306 4004 9295 3940 9283
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 270DEG 29KT 3992 9340 3951 9324 3915 9367

Welsh

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1032 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COWGILL                 39.56N 93.92W
08/06/2018                   CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. 5" BRANCH SNAPPED
            OFF TREE ALONG GUST FRONT.

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1113 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

MOZ017-025-032-033-039-040-046-070500-
Macon MO-Adair MO-Saline MO-Chariton MO-Randolph MO-Cooper MO-
Howard MO-
1113 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHARITON...RANDOLPH...
SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR...HOWARD...NORTHEASTERN SALINE...MACON AND
NORTHEASTERN COOPER COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1113 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles south of Novinger to near Malta Bend.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kirksville, Moberly, Boonville, Macon, Fayette, Slater, Salisbury,
Huntsville, La Plata, Glasgow, New Franklin, Bevier, Higbee,
Keytesville, Atlanta, Clark, Callao, Cairo, Armstrong and Brashear.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 105 and
114.

LAT...LON 3925 9232 3925 9243 3898 9257 3892 9250
      3888 9252 3898 9285 3923 9307 4016 9257
      4016 9235 3995 9235 3995 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 276DEG 28KT 4011 9277 3915 9331

Welsh