Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 245 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

A mid level shortwave trough provided enough lift this morning to
keep the remnant cloud coverage this morning and early afternoon to
keep temperatures much lower than previously forecasted. Satellite
observations indicate there will be some clearing pushing over our
area in the next few hours so temps will most likely still get into
the low to mid 90s, but we may escape the upper 90s. This drop in
temperature also decreased the heat index values down below 100
degrees in most locations.  A diffuse boundary is currently located
over northern MO in a SW-NE like orientation and will provide the
main focus for convection late this evening and into overnight.
There appears to be two rounds of convection in the next 24 hours,
with the first occurring late this afternoon into the evening as
storms form over SE Nebraska and advect into NW Missouri after
sunset. This complex of storms will likely be well into the
convective cycle as it moves into Missouri and will be relatively
high based.  MLCAPE values may reach up near 1500-2000 J/kg and
there will be 0-6km bulk shear values near 30kts.  This will create
a brief chance of strong to low end severe weather with isolated
strong winds being the main threat due to a very steep low level
lapse rates with an inverted V type sounding and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg.
This first round of precip will stay mainly north of HWY 36 as it
advects east.  The second round of storms will have stronger forcing
along a weak warm front over northern KS that will be enhanced by a
developing LLJ overnight. This boundary will be enhanced by an upper
level shortwave which will lead to a sustained line of storms than
the first round. This boundary will work its way down through are
area following the LLJ as it pushes through the KC Metro area early
in the morning on Tuesday.  The CAPE will be mostly elevated when
this boundary pushes through, limiting any severe weather chances,
but may provide some isolated to scattered thunderstorms embedded in
the scattered showers.  This boundary looks to stall over our area
tomorrow morning keeping PoPs in the forecast through the afternoon.
Due to the high based nature of these storms the QPF will not be
drought busting, but a widespread 0.25-.5" of rainfall is expected
over the region.

Upper level ridging will build over the Rockies mid week keeping our
area on the edge in a NW to N flow aloft through the rest of the
forecast period. Higher pressure will build into the region on the
backside of this boundary keeping our forecast relatively cool and
dry through the weekend.  GFS does show some signals of diurnal
convection over central MO, but other models have a stronger capping
inversion and keep us dry.  Due to this uncertainty any PoPs on Wed
remain on the lower end. The next chance to any PoPs over the region
is when a shortwave trough pushes into northern MO Friday morning,
but this signal is not strong throughout the models and so there is
still some uncertainty in the PoPs. Temperatures will remain in the
upper 80s to lower 90s through the forecast with light winds out of
the north.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

Despite storms expected this evening through Tuesday morning, most
of this TAF cycle will be VFR. Thunderstorms that will move
across will be rather high based, but there might be several
different rounds of scattered activity, so have broad brushed the
terminals overnight through the mid to late morning hours of
Tuesday. Expect many updates to TAFs as storms near terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
340 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-070845-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
340 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Heat indices this afternoon will range from 100 to 103. Storms
 are expected this evening and tonight, some which could become
 strong.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Storms may linger into Tuesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
753 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

MOZ006-007-016-070130-
Putnam MO-Mercer MO-Sullivan MO-
753 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PUTNAM...NORTHEASTERN
MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 752 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mercer, or 23 miles southeast of Leon, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Princeton, Mercer, Newtown, Lucerne and Powersville.

LAT...LON 4033 9321 4033 9342 4038 9364 4051 9365
      4058 9335 4058 9324
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 265DEG 26KT 4045 9352

Welsh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
759 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

MOZ003-004-070130-
Worth MO-Gentry MO-
759 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WORTH AND GENTRY COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 759 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ravenwood, or 8 miles east of Maryville, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albany, Stanberry, Grant City, Irena, Darlington, Gentry, Worth,
Allendale and Denver.

LAT...LON 4047 9423 4047 9422 4016 9422 4016 9442
      4022 9461 4039 9460 4039 9461 4052 9460
      4054 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 270DEG 38KT 4035 9471

Welsh

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
808 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELMO                    40.52N 95.12W
08/06/2018                   NODAWAY            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. LARGE LIMBS DOWN.
            TIME-MATCHED TO RADAR.

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
812 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

KSZ102-MOZ012-020-070145-
Doniphan KS-Buchanan MO-Andrew MO-
812 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN...CENTRAL
BUCHANAN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ANDREW COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 812 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Troy, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Wathena, Elwood, Troy, Country Club Villa, Country Club,
Doniphan, St. Joseph Airport and Faucett.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 34 and 56.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 0 and 14.

LAT...LON 3983 9512 3991 9475 3956 9477 3963 9508
      3963 9510 3964 9511 3966 9512
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 266DEG 27KT 3971 9505

Welsh

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