Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
629 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 306 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

This afternoon and tonight:

A very unstable and uncapped environment exists across the
southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area, along and ahead of
stationary front. Severe storms quickly developed in this
environment just east of Kansas City. Other storms developed near
Emporia, KS. With the front draped through the area, additional
storms could form within this environment quickly through the late
afternoon hours. Downdraft CAPE increases across eastern KS and
western MO late this afternoon as well. The thought with storms
during the afternoon is that initial updrafts would be most likely
to produce large hail and then transition to damaging winds as the
downdraft CAPE increases. In the upper levels, the weak shortwave
trough that helped generate the afternoon storms will pass to the
east. This will have a tendency to veer the upper level winds and
lead to period of increased shear late this evening. So the mode
for the second round may differ some from the ongoing round. The
increased shear may support more hail with storms that develop
this evening. But overall, the large hail and damaging winds look
possible with the second round as well. As the low level jet
increases overnight a flash flooding threat may evolve.
Precipitable water values approaching 2" is very anomalous for
this time of year. What may limit flooding potential is the cold
pool forcing storms southeastward rather storms
backbuilding/training.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

It looks like the front will finally have pushed to our south.
This should result in temperatures getting close to normal for
this time of year with highs upper 70s to around 80 degrees
Tuesday and lower 80s on Wednesday. Also, with the front south of
the area, precipitation chances should be confined to just the
southern portions of the forecast area.

Thursday - Sunday:

Temperatures should continue to be above normal with highs in the
middle to upper 80s Thursday - Friday. Sporadic shower and
thunderstorm chances look possible as well through this period.
Potentially more widespread storms may be possible heading through
the weekend. But given the time of year, and the pattern, model
variability is high so there are no more than just chance pops.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

Thunderstorm chances at the terminals remains uncertain due to the
reduced instability downstream of ongoing convection due to cirrus,
in addition to tendency of cold pools to favor a more
southerly/easterly trajectory with time. Expect frontal passage
overnight with period of at least MVFR cigs before improving by
midday to early afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Blair

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
845 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151345-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
845 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Several rounds of potentially severe storms are possible today, this
 afternoon and again this evening and overnight. Large hail and
 damaging winds are the main threats this afternoon and evening with
 heavy rainfall and flooding possible overnight.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
558 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

MOZ038>040-044>046-054-142345-
Johnson MO-Saline MO-Lafayette MO-Pettis MO-Cooper MO-Henry MO-
Howard MO-
558 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HENRY...PETTIS...
SOUTH CENTRAL HOWARD...SOUTHWESTERN SALINE...SOUTHEASTERN
LAFAYETTE...COOPER AND EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 558 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Warrensburg, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sedalia, Warrensburg, Boonville, Windsor, Knob Noster, Sweet Springs,
Whiteman Air Force Base, La Monte, Pilot Grove, Smithton, Leeton,
Green Ridge, Calhoun, Otterville, Bunceton, Houstonia, Whiteman Afb,
Prairie Home, Emma and Hughesville.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 73 and
114.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3868 9262 3870 9306 3853 9307 3854 9328
      3851 9330 3851 9351 3844 9351 3842 9371
      3895 9374 3901 9256 3898 9257 3892 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 266DEG 30KT 3869 9369

Mell

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
704 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S SEDALIA MEMORIAL AR 38.68N 93.17W
05/14/2018                   PETTIS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOWN ONTO RISSLER ROAD NEAR SEDALIA.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>