Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Kansas City, MO

142 
WWUS53 KEAX 152123
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
423 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

MOC001-152132-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-180515T2130Z/
Adair MO-
423 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4009 9246 4022 9241 4022 9235 4014 9234
      4009 9235 4008 9234 4004 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2122Z 284DEG 12KT 4013 9228 

$$

Welsh

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
333 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 333 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

Scattered to isolated showers continue to percolate across north
central and northeast Missouri this afternoon as a frontal boundary
slowly settles south across the region. Afternoon observations
indicate the front is currently wallowing from northeast Missouri,
back to the southwest through central and southwest portions of the
state. What storms are bubbling up in our section of Missouri have
struggled to last very long as shear is rather low locally, as we
find our region under the influence of the downwind side of a broad
ridge that is prevailing over the mountainous west. What storms have
developed are across north central to central Missouri, associated
with a weak circulation (MCV?) along the front. We anticipate this
activity to continue to percolate through the early evening hours
when diurnal heating gives way to cooling. Still, with MLCAPE values
in the 500-1000 J/KG range, expect what storms are out there to
pulse up rather quickly, but fall apart almost as fast. This will
result in brief downpours of rain along with a marginal risk of
strong and gusty outflow winds. So, while the severe threat is very
minimal this afternoon, it is not zero.

As for the rest of the week, we will be watching the western ridge
as it amplifies across the West Coast. While this will push north
the prevail storm track of the northern jet stream, the southern
stream will continue to bring small shortwave troughs burrowing in
under the ridge. We expect a return of thunderstorm chances to our
section of eastern Kansas and northern Missouri as early as Friday;
though the main focus will be late in the day Saturday into Sunday
as a trough moves east across the Canadian/U.S.A. border. Will need
to keep an eye on this as synoptic level evaluation of the weekend
indicates that we may be dealing with severe storms.

Otherwise, temperatures this week will slow climb. Readings today
and Wednesday will be kept in check a bit by a combination of cloud
cover and northerly to easterly winds. Thursday will still see the
benefits of the east wind, but by Friday southerly winds will
return. And with that southerly return flow, we expect readings in
the upper 80s Friday with highs around 90 Saturday. Tail end of the
weekend and beginning of next work week will see cooler temperatures
prevail behind the storms mid-weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

Scattered showers near the terminals are moving off to the east,
thus only have a VCSH in for the afternoon hours. Otherwise,
provided no storms redevelop on the west side of the state,
following the wind is the only issue to watch over the next 24
hours as it adjusts tot he northeast to east overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
502 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
502 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to persist across
portions of northern Missouri through the morning. No severe storms
are expected with this activity.

This afternoon, thunderstorm chances will increase, primarily across
central Missouri, with a few storms capable of strong wind gusts.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm chances will return on Saturday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

MOZ017-152115-
Adair MO-
350 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ADAIR COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brashear, or 8 miles east of Kirksville, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brashear and Gibbs.

LAT...LON 4013 9252 4026 9247 4024 9235 4022 9235
      4008 9234 4005 9234 4005 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 284DEG 12KT 4018 9242

Welsh