Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

Water vapor imagery shows a trough swinging through the Northern
Plains early this morning. Initial lee side troughing and height
falls ahead of the trough sparked storms across the Dakotas and
Nebraska late Friday afternoon, which resulted in the line of storms
currently pushing into far northwestern Missouri early this morning.
A little farther south, storms are seen bubbling up across
eastern Kansas in response to the warm air advection of the
nocturnal jet, which is leading the shortwave trough across the
Plains States.

For this morning...the line of storms moving into far northern
Missouri looks to have become dominated by the outflow; so while the
storms are working there way along in an environment with 3000+ J/KG
of MUCAPE and 0-6KM shear values around 40 knots available, the
associated damaging winds that might accompany a line of storms like
this are not being realized. As a result we are only getting reports
of 40 to 50 MPH winds in northwest Missouri. Mean while, storms
across eastern Kansas have struggled to get going, perhaps owing
to the lack of upper level support given the shortwave troughs
location across the Dakotas and/or the continuing advection of the
EML on the southwest winds at 700mb. Either way, while current
radar and satellite trends indicate that storms will keep going
for many more hours across northern and western Missouri, the
severe nature of the storms is looking a bit minimal; though not
zero. The exception might be where the warm air advection of the
nocturnal jet is meeting the outflow along the line of storms --in
the vicinity of highway 36 in northern Missouri-- which might
result in a bit of a maximum for wind. Otherwise, as the storms
sweep through early this morning we expect heavy rain and strong
(sub-severe) winds for most other areas. Current timing and trends
point at the storms blowing themselves apart later this morning
across central Missouri as the nocturnal jet mixes out and the
storms move away from the supporting upper level trough and
surface front, though confidence is a bit iffy as none of the
models are handling this line of storms well.

Rest of the afternoon...should be rather nice with highs in the low
to mid 80s. Otherwise, expectations are that the convective system
from this mornings storms will push the focus for any further
development south and east for the afternoon hours with an effective
frontal boundary. But, the cold front associated with the Northern
Plains shortwave trough will be sweeping across the region this
afternoon, and may be able to spark a few isolated storms across
areas from central and north central to northeast Missouri this
afternoon.

For the rest of the weekend and into the beginning of the work week,
expect a nice break from the 90s we have seen lately, as highs hang
out in the 80s through Tuesday, thanks to the cool air behind
today's cold front.

Otherwise, expect hot summer temperatures to start nosing back into
the region by mid-work-week as a ridge out west expands into the
Plains States. This will also push the storm track north, so we are
not currently expecting storms back in the region until late in the
work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

While the line of storms has developed, turned to the southeast,
and is advancing toward northwestern MO, the intensity is not
quite as strong as though. This may be due to warm air aloft
limiting the overall intensity. Regardless, using the time of
arrival tool brings the line into STJ around 09Z and KMCI between
09Z and 10Z. Have adjusted the timing but kept the forecast as is
since there still looks to be a period of thunderstorms early in
the morning which would include heavy rain and gusty winds. A cold
front will push through the area later in the morning, switching
winds to the northwest and clearing things.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
509 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
509 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning with strong damaging
 winds and brief periods of torrential rain.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
346 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

KSZ025-102>105-MOZ002>006-012>015-020>022-028-029-037-020930-
Wyandotte KS-Leavenworth KS-Johnson KS-Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-
Buchanan MO-Gentry MO-Nodaway MO-Harrison MO-Andrew MO-Clay MO-
Platte MO-Grundy MO-Mercer MO-Clinton MO-Daviess MO-De Kalb MO-
Worth MO-Jackson MO-Caldwell MO-
346 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEAVENWORTH...ATCHISON...
WYANDOTTE...SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN...NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...
BUCHANAN...NORTHWESTERN GRUNDY...MERCER...HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN
NODAWAY...ANDREW...NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...EASTERN WORTH...DAVIESS...
WESTERN CLAY...CLINTON...GENTRY...NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...PLATTE AND
DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

At 346 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Mount Ayr to near
Winchester. Movement was east at 60 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Overland Park, St. Joseph, Shawnee, Lenexa, Leavenworth,
Liberty, Gladstone, Prairie Village, Lansing, Atchison, Merriam,
Cameron, Mission, Smithville, Kearney, Bonner Springs, Parkville,
Savannah and Tonganoxie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 9466 3913 9518 3942 9518 3942 9549
      4057 9436 4058 9339
TIME...MOT...LOC 0846Z 262DEG 54KT 4064 9412 3928 9523

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
425 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     TSTM WND GST     CAMERON                 39.74N 94.24W
06/02/2018  M60 MPH          CLINTON            MO   AWOS

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
448 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW MILL GROVE         40.35N 93.65W
06/02/2018  M60 MPH          MERCER             MO   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
450 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N TONGANOXIE          39.12N 95.09W
06/02/2018                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT LEAST ONE LARGE TREE DOWN IN THE CITY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
500 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW CLARE             38.84N 94.89W
06/02/2018  M67 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
505 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW STANLEY           38.87N 94.74W
06/02/2018  M58 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

&&