Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1225 AM CDT Sat Jun 2 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 318 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2018

Upper level ridging and slight WAA in the low levels allowed for
abnormally warm temperatures in the lower 90s to develop over the
area this afternoon. The high mixing level today allowed the
dewpoint to lower and at least keep us somewhat marginal on the
humidity levels and heat index values. The next major impact to the
region will start to spin up late this afternoon over central
Nebraska as very unstable air meets up with moisture and a shortwave
trough & frontal boundary to initiate convection in that area.

The overall trend in the model guidance is for the storms over
central Nebraska to quickly become linear along the convergence
boundary ahead of a cold front progressing east. The strong
southerly flow over the central plains today has developed a large
swath of MLCAPE values >4000 J/kg and SBCAPE to near 6000 J/kg
that spans from eastern Oklahoma up through central Nebraska. As
the upper level shortwave progresses east, a surface low will
develop over central Kansas propagating this high region of CAPE
to the east. As the sunsets, the surface layer will become
decoupled allowing the LLJ to intensify over central Kansas. The
LLJ will shift slightly to the east allowing MUCAPE of near 5000
J/kg all the way to the KS/MO border. The strength and orientation
of the LLJ shows backwards propagating corfidi vectors orientated
to the SE at 30kts. Once this complex of storms develops a solid
cold pool, this system is expected to take a hard southerly turn
and feed off that LLJ and 4000+ MUCAPE along with mid level lapse
rates near 9C/km. The MCS will rapidly push into our CWA after
06z, with a high likely of severe winds 60+mph, especially as it
enters over NW Missouri. There is some uncertainty to the exact
timing of the squall line with the HRRR and RAP really struggling
to propagate this MCS southward. The latest HRRR run (18Z) is
starting to come in line with the NAMnest, HWR NSSL, and HWR NMMB
models which have been rather consistently showing a quick moving
MCS propagating to the south. All models do indicate that the MCS
will weaken slightly before reaching the KC metro area around
3-5AM, but caution should be taken when this much instability and
forcing available as this feature enters the region. A large
stratiform precipitation region can be expected to lag behind this
system keeping precipitation in the area through late morning,
also inhibiting afternoon redevelopment over central MO with cloud
coverage and rain early in the day. It is becoming more likely
that this MCS will stabilize our CWA tomorrow as it pushes through
in the morning, but if the cold pool is not able to overtake
areas of central Missouri there could be redevelopment along the
cold front as it pushes through Saturday afternoon. The current
thinking is that this stable air will hold out and any
redevelopment will occur east and south of our CWA late in the
afternoon. Dewpoint temperatures will noticeable drop on the
backside of this frontal boundary allowing Saturday night to feel
rather nice compare to what we have seen lately.

Sunday through Monday look to be two of the nicest days in the last
month on the backside of the cold front as high pressure builds
into he region.  Highs will top out around the mid 80s with
dewpoint temps in the mid 50s! High pressure will start to advect
east allowing a southerly return flow to redevelop Tuesday with a
slight increase in temps and dewpoints from Monday.  Wednesday we
return to our "July" pattern with a strong push of WAA and moisture
bringing low 90s and heat index values in the mid to upper 90s with
it.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

While the line of storms has developed, turned to the southeast,
and is advancing toward northwestern MO, the intensity is not
quite as strong as though. This may be due to warm air aloft
limiting the overall intensity. Regardless, using the time of
arrival tool brings the line into STJ around 09Z and KMCI between
09Z and 10Z. Have adjusted the timing but kept the forecast as is
since there still looks to be a period of thunderstorms early in
the morning which would include heavy rain and gusty winds. A cold
front will push through the area later in the morning, switching
winds to the northwest and clearing things.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
533 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021045-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
533 AM CDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 An Air Quality Alert is in effect today for the Kansas City Metro.
 Avoid refueling vehicles, using lawn mowers, and strenuous activity
 until this evening. Also, check on those that have respiratory
 issues such as asthma or heart disease.

 Severe weather will be possible tonight generally along and west of
 Interstate 35. The main threats will be damaging winds, frequent
 lightning, and flash flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Thunderstorms will again be possible Monday night into Tuesday
 however it is too early to determine if these storms will be severe.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1253 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

MOZ001-020645-
Atchison MO-
1253 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ATCHISON COUNTY UNTIL 145
AM CDT...

At 1252 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Sidney to Cook. Movement was
southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tarkio, Rock Port, Rockport, Westboro, Watson, Indian Cave State Park
and Phelps City.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 104 and 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 9521 4026 9555 4030 9556 4032 9561
      4031 9566 4034 9562 4041 9566 4046 9564
      4046 9568 4048 9570 4049 9568 4051 9569
      4052 9566 4055 9566 4056 9568 4052 9571
      4052 9575 4058 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0552Z 300DEG 29KT 4078 9578 4053 9618

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
136 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

KSZ102-MOZ001-002-011-020715-
Doniphan KS-Atchison MO-Holt MO-Nodaway MO-
136 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN...
ATCHISON...HOLT AND WESTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

At 136 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Coin to near Stella. Movement
was southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Maryville, Tarkio, Mound City, Rock Port, Fairfax, Burlington
Junction, Maitland, Skidmore, Forest City, Craig, White Cloud,
Rockport, Graham, Elmo, Big Lake, Westboro, Watson, Quitman,
Blanchard and Fortescue.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 75 and 123.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9516 4029 9483 3985 9534 4000 9534
      4000 9531 4004 9542 4012 9539 4018 9548
      4024 9547 4026 9555 4030 9556 4031 9566
      4034 9562 4046 9564 4048 9570 4054 9565
      4056 9568 4052 9571 4052 9575 4058 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0636Z 323DEG 31KT 4063 9537 4027 9578

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
218 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

KSZ102-MOZ001>003-011-012-020800-
Doniphan KS-Atchison MO-Worth MO-Holt MO-Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
218 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN...WESTERN
WORTH...EASTERN ATCHISON...HOLT...NODAWAY AND NORTHWESTERN ANDREW
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 218 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Blanchard to near Verdon. Movement was
southeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Maryville, Tarkio, Mound City, Highland, Oregon, Fairfax, Burlington
Junction, Hopkins, Ravenwood, Maitland, Skidmore, Forest City, Craig,
Fillmore, White Cloud, Athelstan, Barnard, Sheridan, Parnell and
Graham.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 68 and 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 9441 3967 9534 4000 9534 4000 9531
      4004 9542 4012 9539 4018 9548 4024 9547
      4026 9555 4029 9555 4030 9559 4058 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 0718Z 316DEG 41KT 4058 9518 4015 9564

Mell

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
300 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

KSZ025-102-MOZ002>005-011>013-020-028-020845-
Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-Platte MO-Buchanan MO-De Kalb MO-Worth MO-
Holt MO-Gentry MO-Nodaway MO-Harrison MO-Andrew MO-
300 AM CDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DONIPHAN...ATCHISON...CENTRAL
BUCHANAN...WORTH...GENTRY...NORTHERN HARRISON...HOLT...NODAWAY...
NORTHWESTERN PLATTE...ANDREW AND NORTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL
345 AM CDT...

At 300 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Maryville to near Highland. Movement was
southeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Maryville, Atchison, Savannah, Albany, Wathena, Elwood,
Stanberry, Mound City, Highland, Troy, Country Club Villa, Country
Club, King City, Grant City, Oregon, Effingham, Burlington Junction,
Hopkins and Ravenwood.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 100 and 113.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 43 and 90.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 0 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 9377 3942 9511 3942 9556 3965 9557
      3965 9534 4000 9534 4000 9531 4004 9542
      4012 9540 4027 9524 4027 9518 4033 9518
      4058 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 316DEG 41KT 4031 9485 3988 9531

Mell