Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
306 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 306 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

This afternoon and tonight:

A very unstable and uncapped environment exists across the
southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area, along and ahead of
stationary front. Severe storms quickly developed in this
environment just east of Kansas City. Other storms developed near
Emporia, KS. With the front draped through the area, additional
storms could form within this environment quickly through the late
afternoon hours. Downdraft CAPE increases across eastern KS and
western MO late this afternoon as well. The thought with storms
during the afternoon is that initial updrafts would be most likely
to produce large hail and then transition to damaging winds as the
downdraft CAPE increases. In the upper levels, the weak shortwave
trough that helped generate the afternoon storms will pass to the
east. This will have a tendency to veer the upper level winds and
lead to period of increased shear late this evening. So the mode
for the second round may differ some from the ongoing round. The
increased shear may support more hail with storms that develop
this evening. But overall, the large hail and damaging winds look
possible with the second round as well. As the low level jet
increases overnight a flash flooding threat may evolve.
Precipitable water values approaching 2" is very anomalous for
this time of year. What may limit flooding potential is the cold
pool forcing storms southeastward rather storms
backbuilding/training.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

It looks like the front will finally have pushed to our south.
This should result in temperatures getting close to normal for
this time of year with highs upper 70s to around 80 degrees
Tuesday and lower 80s on Wednesday. Also, with the front south of
the area, precipitation chances should be confined to just the
southern portions of the forecast area.

Thursday - Sunday:

Temperatures should continue to be above normal with highs in the
middle to upper 80s Thursday - Friday. Sporadic shower and
thunderstorm chances look possible as well through this period.
Potentially more widespread storms may be possible heading through
the weekend. But given the time of year, and the pattern, model
variability is high so there are no more than just chance pops.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

A very unstable, potentially uncapped environment will develop
over the terminals early this afternoon. A weak frontal boundary
will also be draped in the vicinity of the terminals. It's very
possible that several rounds of storms will impact the terminals
this afternoon and this evening. But timing and location is
uncertain as storms could develop almost at anytime given the
environment. So will keep the VCTS mention going and then amend
as needed. Tonight, MVFR ceilings look likely in the wake of the
of the convection. IFR ceilings are possible. Given the higher
probability of MVFR, have kept IFR mention out for now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
845 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151345-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
845 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Several rounds of potentially severe storms are possible today, this
 afternoon and again this evening and overnight. Large hail and
 damaging winds are the main threats this afternoon and evening with
 heavy rainfall and flooding possible overnight.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
134 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW BUCKNER           39.14N 94.23W
05/14/2018  M59 MPH          JACKSON            MO   STORM CHASER

            CHASER MEASURED A 59 MPH WIND GUST WITH HIS
            EQUIPMENT. ALSO HAD QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
136 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     HAIL             2 WNW BUCKNER           39.14N 94.23W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   STORM CHASER

            REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH 59 MPH WIND
            GUST.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
220 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             4 ENE ODESSA            39.02N 93.91W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
241 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             3 WNW PITTSVILLE        38.86N 94.02W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
253 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

MOZ023>025-031>033-142045-
Carroll MO-Macon MO-Chariton MO-Livingston MO-Randolph MO-Linn MO-
253 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHARITON...NORTHWESTERN
RANDOLPH...SOUTHERN LINN...NORTH CENTRAL CARROLL...SOUTHWESTERN MACON
AND SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brookfield, moving east at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brookfield, Marceline, Bevier, Bucklin, Meadville, Laclede, Callao,
New Cambria, Mendon, Sumner, Rothville, Triplett, Prairie Hill, Wien
and Saint Catherine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3949 9331 3982 9331 3988 9250 3952 9259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 267DEG 49KT 3975 9307

Mell

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
339 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E FAYETTE             39.14N 92.57W
05/14/2018                   HOWARD             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 124, MODOT
            RESPONDING.

&&