Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Kansas City, MO

May 14, 2018Cooper County, Howard County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 14, 2018, 3:27 PM CDT for Cooper County, Howard County, Missouri. It was in force for 33 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 14, 2018, 3:27 PM CDT (20:27 UTC)
Expired: May 14, 2018, 4:00 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Cooper County, MO, Howard County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 14, 3:28 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	6 E Fayette, MO	TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 124, MODOT RESPONDING.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 1 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 14, 1:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	11 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 255 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 864 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -186 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1071 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 134 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

565 
WUUS53 KEAX 142027
SVREAX
MOC053-089-142100-
/O.NEW.KEAX.SV.W.0040.180514T2027Z-180514T2100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
327 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Howard County in central Missouri...
  Central Cooper County in central Missouri...

* Until 400 PM CDT.

* At 326 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Rocheport, or
  near Boonville, moving east at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Boonville, Fayette, New Franklin, Pilot Grove, Prairie Home,
  Franklin, Wooldridge and Lamine.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 95 and
114.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 9256 3899 9256 3898 9257 3892 9250
      3880 9256 3886 9293 3919 9278 3916 9248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 276DEG 43KT 3900 9264 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Mell

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 14, 3:06 PM CDT, 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 14, 3:06 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
306 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 306 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

This afternoon and tonight:

A very unstable and uncapped environment exists across the
southeastern two-thirds of the forecast area, along and ahead of
stationary front. Severe storms quickly developed in this
environment just east of Kansas City. Other storms developed near
Emporia, KS. With the front draped through the area, additional
storms could form within this environment quickly through the late
afternoon hours. Downdraft CAPE increases across eastern KS and
western MO late this afternoon as well. The thought with storms
during the afternoon is that initial updrafts would be most likely
to produce large hail and then transition to damaging winds as the
downdraft CAPE increases. In the upper levels, the weak shortwave
trough that helped generate the afternoon storms will pass to the
east. This will have a tendency to veer the upper level winds and
lead to period of increased shear late this evening. So the mode
for the second round may differ some from the ongoing round. The
increased shear may support more hail with storms that develop
this evening. But overall, the large hail and damaging winds look
possible with the second round as well. As the low level jet
increases overnight a flash flooding threat may evolve.
Precipitable water values approaching 2" is very anomalous for
this time of year. What may limit flooding potential is the cold
pool forcing storms southeastward rather storms
backbuilding/training.

Tuesday - Wednesday:

It looks like the front will finally have pushed to our south.
This should result in temperatures getting close to normal for
this time of year with highs upper 70s to around 80 degrees
Tuesday and lower 80s on Wednesday. Also, with the front south of
the area, precipitation chances should be confined to just the
southern portions of the forecast area.

Thursday - Sunday:

Temperatures should continue to be above normal with highs in the
middle to upper 80s Thursday - Friday. Sporadic shower and
thunderstorm chances look possible as well through this period.
Potentially more widespread storms may be possible heading through
the weekend. But given the time of year, and the pattern, model
variability is high so there are no more than just chance pops.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

A very unstable, potentially uncapped environment will develop
over the terminals early this afternoon. A weak frontal boundary
will also be draped in the vicinity of the terminals. It's very
possible that several rounds of storms will impact the terminals
this afternoon and this evening. But timing and location is
uncertain as storms could develop almost at anytime given the
environment. So will keep the VCTS mention going and then amend
as needed. Tonight, MVFR ceilings look likely in the wake of the
of the convection. IFR ceilings are possible. Given the higher
probability of MVFR, have kept IFR mention out for now.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous weather outlook, May 14, 8:45 AM CDT, 6 hours 42 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
845 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151345-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
845 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Several rounds of potentially severe storms are possible today, this
 afternoon and again this evening and overnight. Large hail and
 damaging winds are the main threats this afternoon and evening with
 heavy rainfall and flooding possible overnight.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 14, 1:28 PM CDT, 1 hour 59 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
128 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

MOZ031-141915-
Carroll MO-
128 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

At 127 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Norborne, or 9 miles southwest of Carrollton, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton and Wakenda.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central, north central and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3931 9331 3930 9334 3926 9333 3925 9334
      3924 9341 3927 9341 3927 9344 3929 9348
      3927 9350 3924 9349 3923 9358 3925 9365
      3936 9365 3945 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 252DEG 11KT 3927 9362

Pietrycha

Local storm report, May 14, 1:34 PM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
134 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW BUCKNER           39.14N 94.23W
05/14/2018  M59 MPH          JACKSON            MO   STORM CHASER

            CHASER MEASURED A 59 MPH WIND GUST WITH HIS
            EQUIPMENT. ALSO HAD QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

CDB

Local storm report, May 14, 1:36 PM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
136 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     HAIL             2 WNW BUCKNER           39.14N 94.23W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            MO   STORM CHASER

            REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH 59 MPH WIND
            GUST.

&&

CDB

Local storm report, May 14, 2:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
220 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             4 ENE ODESSA            39.02N 93.91W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Local storm report, May 14, 2:41 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
241 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             3 WNW PITTSVILLE        38.86N 94.02W
05/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   PUBLIC

&&

Special weather statement, May 14, 2:53 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
253 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

MOZ023>025-031>033-142045-
Carroll MO-Macon MO-Chariton MO-Livingston MO-Randolph MO-Linn MO-
253 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CHARITON...NORTHWESTERN
RANDOLPH...SOUTHERN LINN...NORTH CENTRAL CARROLL...SOUTHWESTERN MACON
AND SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brookfield, moving east at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brookfield, Marceline, Bevier, Bucklin, Meadville, Laclede, Callao,
New Cambria, Mendon, Sumner, Rothville, Triplett, Prairie Hill, Wien
and Saint Catherine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3949 9331 3982 9331 3988 9250 3952 9259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 267DEG 49KT 3975 9307

Mell

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 14, 2:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Atchison	36 min
May 14, 12:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Jackson	30 min
May 14, 12:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson	27 min
May 14, 1:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson, Lafayette, Ray	47 min
May 14, 1:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Carroll	47 min
May 14, 1:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass, Johnson, Lafayette	24 min
May 14, 1:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Ray	51 min
May 14, 2:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Lafayette	26 min
May 14, 2:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Carroll, Lafayette, Saline	26 min
May 14, 2:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson, Lafayette	35 min
May 14, 2:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Saline	32 min
May 14, 2:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Chariton, Howard, Randolph	25 min
May 14, 2:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Chariton, Macon	52 min
May 14, 3:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard	26 min
May 14, 3:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Johnson, Lafayette, Pettis	23 min
May 14, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Pettis	31 min
May 14, 3:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Chariton, Howard, Randolph	28 min
May 14, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper	30 min
May 14, 5:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Johnson	53 min
May 14, 5:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Henry, Johnson	34 min
May 14, 5:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Cooper, Pettis	47 min
May 14, 6:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Pettis	19 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.