Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 406 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

Scattered storms have developed early this morning along the warm
front in a zone of moderate ML CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, generally
along a line from Harrison and Mercer counties in north-central
Missouri to Crawford and Washington counties in southeast
Missouri. Shear values of 30-40 kts have allowed for a few
stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail...however, a
few of these storms may approach severe limits for winds and hail
given the current environmental conditions. This activity is
expected to translate southeastward through the morning as LLJ
shifts slightly west into Kansas and Nebraska.

Warm front is quite noticeable with overnight temperatures in the
warm sector holding in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and dropping off
to the lower 70s on the cool side. The warm front will continue to
lift northeast today in response to strong WWA ahead of a deepening
surface trough in the Northern High Plains and broad upper ridge
building over the Plains. Local temperatures will be dangerously
hot today and several areas across eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri may near or reach the triple digits for the first time
in quite awhile. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s we will see
heat index values reaching 105 to around 110 degrees by
afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect this morning for
counties generally south of Highway 36 through noon. An Excessive
Heat Warning will then take effect for much of the forecast area
with a Heat Advisory for those counties not covered by the
warning. Please follow heat safety tips and precautions,
especially if you will be outside for any length of time today,
tomorrow, or Saturday.

Dangerously hot weather will continue Friday and Saturday with
temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 90s each day. A cold
front will near, then move through, the region late Saturday
night and Sunday. Storms are expected to develop along the front
Saturday afternoon across Nebraska and Iowa and push southeastward
with the front. Moderate to strong instability and shear profile
will support strong to severe storms as it pushes into northwest
Missouri. Scattered showers with isolated thunder will likely be
ongoing Sunday morning before gradually dissipating. The front
then stalls and depending on the impacts of the early morning
convection...could see redevelop along the frontal boundary late
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Sunday and Monday will see cooler temperatures before we climb back
into the 90s to finish out the holiday week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

VFR conditions should prevail today with mostly clear skies and
persisting southerly/southwesterly winds of 12 kts, and a
concern of LLWS of 40 kts forecast to impact KSTJ by 29/0900Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-
     060-102>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ011>013-
     020>022-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-014>017-
     023>025.

&&

Discussion...PPietrycha
Aviation...Green/Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
520 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Isolated strong to severe storms possible this morning with hail up
 to one inch being the primary threat.

 An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect from noon today through
 Saturday evening for northeast Kansas and much of western Missouri
 for temperatures in the upper 90s and around 100 and heat index
 values of 105 to 112 degrees.

 Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory will be in effect today through
 Saturday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat index
 values between 103 and 109.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Hot weather will continue through Saturday with temperatures
 ranging from the mid to upper 90s for much of the area. Heat
 indices will generally range from 100 to 105 degrees Friday and
 Saturday.

 Storm chances return Saturday night with strong to severe storms
 possible across northwest Missouri.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
658 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     HAIL             2 ESE HARRIS            40.30N 93.31W
06/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       SULLIVAN           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED
            VIA RADAR.

&&

PP