Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
410 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 406 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

Scattered storms have developed early this morning along the warm
front in a zone of moderate ML CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, generally
along a line from Harrison and Mercer counties in north-central
Missouri to Crawford and Washington counties in southeast
Missouri. Shear values of 30-40 kts have allowed for a few
stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail...however, a
few of these storms may approach severe limits for winds and hail
given the current environmental conditions. This activity is
expected to translate southeastward through the morning as LLJ
shifts slightly west into Kansas and Nebraska.

Warm front is quite noticeable with overnight temperatures in the
warm sector holding in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and dropping off
to the lower 70s on the cool side. The warm front will continue to
lift northeast today in response to strong WWA ahead of a deepening
surface trough in the Northern High Plains and broad upper ridge
building over the Plains. Local temperatures will be dangerously
hot today and several areas across eastern Kansas and far western
Missouri may near or reach the triple digits for the first time
in quite awhile. Combined with dewpoints in the 70s we will see
heat index values reaching 105 to around 110 degrees by
afternoon. A Heat Advisory remains in effect this morning for
counties generally south of Highway 36 through noon. An Excessive
Heat Warning will then take effect for much of the forecast area
with a Heat Advisory for those counties not covered by the
warning. Please follow heat safety tips and precautions,
especially if you will be outside for any length of time today,
tomorrow, or Saturday.

Dangerously hot weather will continue Friday and Saturday with
temperatures topping out in the mid to upper 90s each day. A cold
front will near, then move through, the region late Saturday
night and Sunday. Storms are expected to develop along the front
Saturday afternoon across Nebraska and Iowa and push southeastward
with the front. Moderate to strong instability and shear profile
will support strong to severe storms as it pushes into northwest
Missouri. Scattered showers with isolated thunder will likely be
ongoing Sunday morning before gradually dissipating. The front
then stalls and depending on the impacts of the early morning
convection...could see redevelop along the frontal boundary late
Sunday afternoon and evening.

Sunday and Monday will see cooler temperatures before we climb back
into the 90s to finish out the holiday week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light east
southeast winds will increase and veer to the southwest by
morning, and while scattered to broken accas may develop near the
TAF sites over the next few hours, any showers or storms that
develop should stay east of the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

     Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     MOZ011>013-020>022-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Heat Advisory until noon CDT today for MOZ020-021-028>031-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     MOZ001>008-014>017-023>025.

&&

Discussion...PPietrycha
Aviation...Laflin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
420 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-290930-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
420 AM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Scattered strong to severe storms possible this morning with hail
 and winds the primary threats.

 A Heat Advisory remains in effect for this morning for locations
 generally south of Highway 36. An Extreme Heat Warning will then
 take over at noon for northeast Kansas and much of western
 Missouri for temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 and heat
 index values of 105 to 111 degrees. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory will
 be in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Hot weather will continue through Saturday with temperatures
 ranging from the mid to upper 90s for much of the area. Heat
 indices will generally range from 100 to 105 degrees Friday and
 Saturday.

 Storm chances will increase Saturday night with strong to severe
 storms possible across northwest Missouri.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
253 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

MOZ006-015-016-280830-
Grundy MO-Mercer MO-Sullivan MO-
253 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY...
SOUTHEASTERN MERCER AND NORTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM
CDT...

At 252 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Princeton, or 19 miles northwest of Milan, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newtown, Humphreys, Harris and Osgood.

LAT...LON 4042 9337 4038 9337 4038 9325 4034 9308
      4009 9330 4029 9359 4044 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0752Z 297DEG 24KT 4034 9344

Grana

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
345 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

MOZ015-016-024-280915-
Grundy MO-Linn MO-Sullivan MO-
345 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LINN...SOUTHEASTERN
GRUNDY AND SOUTHWESTERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 345 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Galt, or 8 miles east of Trenton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, Galt, Laredo and Humphreys.

LAT...LON 4012 9312 3988 9332 3991 9337 3997 9336
      3997 9345 4007 9360 4020 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 295DEG 19KT 4009 9345

Grana