Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 324 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

Primary focus remains on severe weather potential for this evening.
At the surface, a warm front reinforced by clouds and light
precipitation this morning is evident in observations and visible
satellite imagery - stretching from just south of Kirksville
intersecting a cold front near Omaha. This cold front has made
gradual eastward progress, now stretching from eastern Nebraska to
near Russell Kansas. Agitated cumulus field has evolved along and
ahead of the cold front. The environment is characterized by
relatively modest vertical wind shear, but strong instability in
place. Robust convection is expected to develop by mid to late
afternoon across southeast Nebraska into far northeast Kansas.
Uncertainty with respect to thunderstorm coverage and timing exists
on the convective evolution as storm cold pools begin to consolidate
just before sunset. The most likely scenario is a forward
propagating line/cluster of storms quickly diving southeastward
through the forecast area this evening. In this case, a risk for
straight-line wind damage of wind gusts from 60-70 mph will exist
with this activity over northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri.
The time window for the greatest severe weather potential will be
from 7 to 11 PM. A less likely scenario will be for storms to
struggle to develop a cohesive cold pool, and likewise new
convection favoring the southwest flank of activity, with
propagation along the instability axis. This would favor storms
more across eastern Kansas, with the forecast area being
essentially split. Regardless, the odds are more likely that a
cluster of storms will move through the forecast area, producing
the potential for wind damage. Folks should be weather-aware this
evening.

For the remainder of the week, thunderstorm chances will begin to
decrease. Tuesday should be mainly rain-free, with a slight chance
of convection on Wednesday as isentropic ascent occurs with the
surface warm front lifting northward. Thereafter, heights rise as an
upper level ridge builds through the central CONUS. This will spell
a low probability of rainfall and high temperatures returning into
the 90s Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

VFR conditions will start the evening, but a line of thunderstorms
is expected to blow through later tonight bringing some trouble to
the terminals. Current timing has the storms moving through
between 02Z and 05Z. These storms will likely result in a strong
winds from the northwest as they blow through along with heavy
rain. Otherwise, expect some marginal MVFR CIGs Tuesday morning
behind the cold front that moves through overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
515 AM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-121015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
515 AM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Hot conditions are expected today with highs in the low to mid 90s
 band heat index values in the mid 90 to low 100 degree range.

 Severe storms are possible west of Interstate 35 this evening into
 tonight. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Thunderstorms will be possible again Wednesday night a few strong to
 isolated severe storms may be possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
440 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ETHEL                   39.90N 92.73W
06/08/2018                   MACON              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            DELAYED REPORT: MULTIPLE TREES DOWN,
            ESTIMATED WINDS 60MPH.

&&

JRB