Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2018

River Flood Warning 28, NWS Kansas City, MO

August 31, 2018Carroll County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this river flood warning at Aug 31, 2018, 10:01 AM CDT for Carroll County, Missouri. It took effect at Aug 31, 2018, 12:50 PM CDT. It was in force for 66 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 31, 2018, 10:01 AM CDT (15:01 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 31, 2018, 12:50 PM CDT
Expired
Sep 3, 2018, 6:21 AM CDT
In force
66 hr
Issued by
NWS Kansas City, MO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Carroll County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Wakenda Creek at Carrollton (CAXM7). The gauge peaked at 19.00 ft at Sep 2, 2018, 4:00 AM CDT.

actionminormoderate510152008/3109/0109/0209/0309/04
Action stage
10 ft
Minor stage
16 ft
Moderate stage
19 ft
Major stage
21 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06896000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

687 
WGUS43 KEAX 311501
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1001 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

...The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a 
flood warning for the following rivers in Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.

  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-011500-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0028.180901T0816Z-180903T0200Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.180901T0816Z.180901T1800Z.180902T0200Z.UU/
1001 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* from late tonight to Sunday evening.
* At  9:00 AM Friday the stage was 5.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 18.3 feet by early Saturday afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Saturday before midnight.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16    5.3   Fri 09 AM   18.3 Saturday afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$
11 follow-up statements
677 
WGUS83 KEAX 311528
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1028 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-011528-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0028.180831T2121Z-180902T1609Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.180831T2121Z.180901T0600Z.180901T1609Z.UU/
1028 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* from this afternoon to Sunday morning.
* At 10:00 AM Friday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 18.3 feet by early Saturday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by late Saturday morning.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16    9.8   Fri 10 AM   18.3 early Saturday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

 
$$
983 
WGUS43 KEAX 311643
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1143 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following river in Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-011643-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0028.180831T1750Z-180902T1829Z/
/CAXM7.2.ER.180831T1750Z.180901T0600Z.180901T1829Z.UU/
1143 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.

* until Sunday afternoon.
* At 11:00 AM Friday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 19.2 feet by early Saturday morning. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early Saturday afternoon.
* At 19.1 feet...Water reaches the bottom of the South Main Street 
  bridge over Wakenda Creek.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16   13.7   Fri 11 AM   19.2 early Saturday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

$$
326 
WGUS83 KEAX 312215
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
515 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-012214-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180902T1829Z/
/CAXM7.2.ER.180831T1717Z.180901T0600Z.180901T1829Z.UU/
515 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At  5:00 PM Friday the stage was 16.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.2 feet by 
  early Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early
  Saturday afternoon.
* At 19.1 feet...Water reaches the bottom of the South Main Street 
  bridge over Wakenda Creek.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16   16.4   Fri 05 PM   19.2 early Saturday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$
730 
WGUS83 KEAX 010131
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
831 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-020131-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180903T0630Z/
/CAXM7.2.ER.180831T1717Z.180901T1800Z.180902T0630Z.UU/
831 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* until late Sunday night.
* At  8:00 PM Friday the stage was 16.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.0 feet by 
  early Saturday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  early Sunday morning.
* At 19.1 feet...Water reaches the bottom of the South Main Street 
  bridge over Wakenda Creek.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16   16.6   Fri 08 PM   19.0 early Saturday 
afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$
863 
WGUS83 KEAX 011434
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
934 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-021434-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180903T0517Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.180831T1717Z.180901T1800Z.180902T0517Z.UU/
934 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* until late Sunday night.
* At  9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.0 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early Sunday 
  morning.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16   17.6   Sat 09 AM   18.0 this afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$
852 
WGUS83 KEAX 011935
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
235 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-021935-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180903T1917Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.180831T1717Z.180902T0600Z.180902T1917Z.UU/
235 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* until Monday afternoon.
* At  2:00 PM Saturday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.6 feet by 
  early Sunday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Sunday afternoon.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16   18.2   Sat 02 PM   18.6 early Sunday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$
798 
WGUS83 KEAX 020030
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
730 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-030029-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180904T0034Z/
/CAXM7.1.ER.180831T1717Z.180902T0600Z.180903T0034Z.UU/
730 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* until Monday evening.
* At  7:00 PM Saturday the stage was 18.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.9 feet by 
  early Sunday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Sunday 
  evening.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16   18.6   Sat 07 PM   18.9 early Sunday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$
776 
WGUS43 KEAX 020625
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
125 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018




...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-030624-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180904T0338Z/
/CAXM7.2.ER.180831T1717Z.180902T1200Z.180903T0338Z.UU/
125 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* At  1:00 AM Sunday the stage was 18.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.1 feet by this
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage tonight.
* At 19.1 feet...Water reaches the bottom of the South Main Street 
  bridge over Wakenda Creek.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16   18.9   Sun 01 AM   19.1 this morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$
200 
WGUS83 KEAX 021432
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
932 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-031432-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180904T0348Z/
/CAXM7.2.ER.180831T1717Z.180902T1100Z.180903T0348Z.UU/
932 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* until Monday evening.
* At  9:00 AM Sunday the stage was 18.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tonight.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16   18.9   Sun 09 AM   18.8 this afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$
818 
WGUS83 KEAX 030233
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
933 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-040233-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180904T1428Z/
/CAXM7.2.ER.180831T1717Z.180902T1100Z.180903T1428Z.UU/
933 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* until Tuesday morning.
* At  9:00 PM Sunday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  late Monday morning.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16   18.0   Sun 09 PM   17.6 early Monday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$
732 
WGUS83 KEAX 031121
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018



...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC033-031151-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180904T1428Z/
/CAXM7.2.ER.180831T1717Z.180902T1100Z.180903T1039Z.UU/
621 AM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* At  6:00 AM Monday the stage was 15.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  5:39 AM Monday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 7.0 feet by Tuesday 
  morning.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16   15.9   Mon 06 AM   15.6 this morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Aug 31, 6:06 AM CDT, 3 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 6:06 AM CDT, 3 hours 55 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
606 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 309 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

Scattered elevated convection ongoing across far northeast Kansas
and northwest Missouri this morning as a weak shortwave trough
riding along the northern periphery of a southern Plains ridge
interacts with broad isentropic ascent in the 300-305K layer.
Effective bulk layered shear of 40-50 kts combined with MUCAPE
values of 1000-2000 J/kg has led to mainly a severe hail threat as
strong capping resulting from an remnant EML plume inhibits the
convective wind potential. With time this morning, CAMs to include
both the NAMNest and HRRR continue to track this activity off to
the east with bulk of activity remaining north of the KC Metro.
Activity will likely persist a few hours after sunrise before the
low-level jet weakens and activity pretty much dissipates by late
morning.

For the rest of the day, expect warmer temperatures with highs
climbing into the middle to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible
across the western third of the CWA. With such an active weather
pattern in-place, fcst models again highlight the possibility of
another organized storm complex moving into northwest Missouri by
late afternoon as yet another shortwave approaches from the
central Plains. Another look at CAM guidance shows a multi-cell
cluster taking aim at northern Missouri later today with ample
instability and eroding low-level CIN likely supporting both a
strong wind and large hail threat. Best dynamics will reside
further north up in Iowa, however areas along and north of Route
36 should be in close enough proximity to see a few organized
storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Once this feature
tracks off to the northeast by 10 PM or so, much of the overnight
looks to be dry with the exception of the far northwest where
early morning storms could develop along an approaching cold
front.

For Saturday, models have backed off on pops a tad as frontal a
frontal boundary is expected to stall across southern Iowa. This
feature will be the focus for storms during the day and evening,
with the bulk of activity across our forecast area remaining north
of Route 36. Highs will again warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s
as southerly flow persists across the area. This changes a little
by Sunday as a more pronounced trough approaches and leads to more
widespread shwr/storm activity through the day and night.
Beyond this, a very active weather pattern will continue with rain
chances possible just about every day next week as semi-permanent
ridge remains anchored over the American Southeast and ample
moisture transport across to its west. This may be the pattern
needed to help begin improving some of the drought conditions across
the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

Scattered shwrs/storms developing east of the KC Metro this
morning should remain east of area terminals with dry conditions
expected through the majority of the fcst period. Winds will
increase out of the southwest with gusts to 25 kts possible later
this afternoon with continuation into the early evening hours.
Shwrs and storms will redevelop overnight however the bulk of
activity is expected to remain north of area terminals. The only
exception may be STJ after 06z, however will allow for additional
model runs before deciding whether a thunder mention will be
needed.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...32
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 31, 4:44 AM CDT, 5 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
444 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-010945-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
444 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will push through northern Missouri this
morning and into the early afternoon. The main concerns will be
frequent lightning, small hail, torrential rainfall, and localized
flooding. These storms are expected to dissipate by the early
afternoon leaving most of the area in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A
second round of storms is expected to form near the MO/IA border in
the late afternoon to early evening and continue to develop in this
region overnight. The main severe threat will remain on the IA side
of the border, but isolated severe storms are possible on the MO side
into the evening and overnight hours. Large hail and severe winds
would be the main threat.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Some lingering storms will remain over northern Missouri Saturday
morning, but the afternoon looks to remain mostly dry with temps in
the lower 90s throughout the region. Saturday night into Sunday
storms look to redevelop along the IA/MO border and then slowly track
to the SE over the region throughout the day. The reoccurring storms
over the northern portion of Missouri could eventually result in some
localized and river flooding by Monday morning. An active pattern
will set up going into the the work week with chances of rain
occurring almost daily, although the severe thunderstorm chances
look relatively low.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 31, 6:15 AM CDT, 3 hours 46 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

MOZ029-030-311200-
Ray MO-Clay MO-
615 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CLAY AND CENTRAL RAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CDT...

At 615 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Crystal Lakes, or over Excelsior Springs, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Excelsior Springs, Richmond, Lawson, Hardin, Henrietta, Crystal
Lakes, Excelsior Estates, Woods Heights, Rayville, Mosby, Homestead
and Prathersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3943 9425 3940 9376 3929 9376 3920 9378
      3920 9380 3921 9382 3921 9385 3920 9387
      3932 9430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1115Z 283DEG 28KT 3936 9418

Barham
Special weather statement, Aug 31, 6:21 AM CDT, 3 hours 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
621 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

MOZ022-030-031-038-311200-
Ray MO-Carroll MO-Lafayette MO-Caldwell MO-
621 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN RAY...WESTERN
CARROLL...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTIES
UNTIL 700 AM CDT...

At 621 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Braymer to 9 miles southeast of Cowgill to
6 miles north of Richmond. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Braymer, Norborne, Hardin, Bogard, Dover and Stet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3927 9345 3929 9347 3929 9348 3924 9348
      3916 9370 3939 9410 3946 9392 3962 9376
      3938 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 303DEG 28KT 3955 9373 3943 9385 3938 9400

Barham
Special weather statement, Aug 31, 6:50 AM CDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
650 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

MOZ031-038-039-311230-
Carroll MO-Saline MO-Lafayette MO-
650 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL...
SOUTHWESTERN SALINE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 650 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hardin to Lexington to near Wellington.
Movement was east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Higginsville, Lexington, Concordia, Sweet Springs, Waverly,
Corder, Alma, Malta Bend, Blackburn, Mayview, Emma, Dover, Aullville,
Mount Leonard and Grand Pass.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 57 and
74.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9317 3894 9331 3906 9402 3922 9382
      3920 9380 3921 9376 3927 9375 3916 9307
TIME...MOT...LOC 1150Z 282DEG 44KT 3923 9380 3917 9385 3909 9396

Barham
Special weather statement, Aug 31, 7:06 AM CDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
706 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

MOZ037-038-043-044-311245-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-Jackson MO-
706 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS...SOUTHWESTERN
LAFAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

At 706 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Oak Grove to Lone Jack to Baldwin Park.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Grain Valley, Pleasant Hill, Oak Grove, Odessa, Higginsville, Holden,
Lone Jack, Kingsville, Baldwin Park, Lake Lafayette, Bates City,
Strasburg, Pittsville and Fayetteville.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 25 and
49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3902 9372 3887 9376 3871 9391 3875 9431
      3889 9422 3909 9417
TIME...MOT...LOC 1206Z 272DEG 24KT 3902 9412 3889 9415 3880 9422

Barham
Local storm report, Aug 31, 7:14 AM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
714 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 AM     HAIL             WHITE CLOUD             39.98N 95.30W
08/31/2018  E1.75 INCH       DONIPHAN           KS   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT: REPORT ON TWITTER OF GOLF
            BALL SIZED HAIL IN WHITE CLOUD. TIMING
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JRB
Special weather statement, Aug 31, 8:46 AM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
846 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

MOZ043-044-054-311415-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Henry MO-
846 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CASS...NORTHWESTERN
HENRY AND SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...

At 846 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
East Lynne, or near Garden City, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Gunn City, Blairstown, La Tour and Quick City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3855 9420 3867 9421 3868 9392 3853 9392
TIME...MOT...LOC 1346Z 269DEG 14KT 3863 9416

Cutter

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 31, 1:41 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXAndrew, Holt49 min
Aug 31, 1:49 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXHolt26 min
Aug 31, 2:13 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXHolt32 min
Aug 31, 2:44 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXAndrew46 min
Aug 31, 3:01 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXBuchanan29 min
Aug 31, 3:19 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXDaviess, Harrison41 min
Aug 31, 3:27 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXAndrew, DeKalb48 min
Aug 31, 4:51 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXGentry24 min
Aug 31, 5:30 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXDaviess45 min
Aug 31, 6:15 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXRay45 min
Aug 31, 6:21 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXCarroll39 min
Aug 31, 6:50 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXLafayette, Saline40 min
Aug 31, 7:06 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXJohnson39 min
Aug 31, 7:55 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEAXCaldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Livingston3 hr
Aug 31, 8:36 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEAXCarroll, Ray3 hr
Aug 31, 8:46 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXCass29 min
Aug 31, 9:07 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningEAXCarroll6 hr
Aug 31, 10:07 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEAXLafayette, Saline3 hr
Aug 31, 11:45 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXJohnson30 min
Aug 31, 12:49 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXPettis26 min
Aug 31, 12:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Pettis31 min
Aug 31, 1:05 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryEAXCarroll, Chariton, Cooper, Howard, Saline3 hr
Aug 31, 3:01 PM CDTAreal Flood WarningEAXCarroll24 hr
Aug 31, 4:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXCaldwell, Clinton43 min
Aug 31, 4:50 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXCarroll40 min
Aug 31, 5:42 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementEAXCarroll, Saline48 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.