Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Detroit, MI

335 
WWUS53 KDTX 290152
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
952 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MIC063-157-290300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180829T0300Z/
Tuscola MI-Huron MI-
952 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR TUSCOLA AND HURON COUNTIES...

At 951 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Port Austin to near Kinde to Fairgrove to near
Millington, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Port Austin and Kinde around 955 PM EDT.
  Mayville around 1005 PM EDT.
  Kingston around 1015 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Parisville, Colling, Wisner, Ivanhoe, Rapson, Ellington, Gilford,
Port Crescent State Park, Filion and Deford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. 
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading 
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to 
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4400 8276 4369 8261 4367 8312 4333 8310
      4332 8335 4324 8335 4323 8369 4359 8370
      4360 8370 4359 8369 4370 8349 4385 8343
      4386 8345 4390 8333 4391 8334 4388 8343
      4389 8343 4392 8340 4407 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 274DEG 40KT 4413 8303 4397 8295 4351 8353 4331
8357

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AM

071 
WWUS53 KDTX 290209
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1009 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MIC063-157-290300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180829T0300Z/
Tuscola MI-Huron MI-
1009 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR TUSCOLA AND HURON COUNTIES...

At 1008 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 11 miles northeast of Port Austin to Port Hope to near
Caro to near Otter Lake, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Mayville around 1020 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Redman, East Dayton, Parisville, Tuscola, Colling, Wilmot, Ivanhoe,
Rapson, Bay Port and Ellington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. 
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading 
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to 
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4400 8276 4369 8261 4367 8312 4333 8310
      4332 8335 4324 8335 4323 8369 4344 8370
      4352 8357 4367 8353 4368 8352 4370 8349
      4385 8343 4386 8345 4390 8333 4391 8334
      4388 8343 4389 8343 4392 8340 4407 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 265DEG 39KT 4413 8279 4397 8272 4350 8329 4323
8350

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AM

964 
WWUS53 KDTX 290222
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1022 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MIC063-157-290300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180829T0300Z/
Tuscola MI-Huron MI-
1022 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN TUSCOLA AND HURON COUNTIES...

At 1021 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 20 miles north of Harbor Beach to 10 miles east of
Port Hope to 6 miles northeast of Kingston to near North Branch,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe thunderstorms will remain over mainly rural areas of
eastern Tuscola and Huron Counties, including the following
locations... Redman, East Dayton, Parisville, Wilmot, Ivanhoe,
Rapson, Ellington, Ruth, Filion and Deford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. 
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading 
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to 
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4400 8276 4369 8261 4367 8312 4333 8310
      4332 8335 4324 8335 4323 8355 4362 8337
      4382 8310 4407 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 259DEG 39KT 4414 8258 4398 8251 4349 8311 4324
8329

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AM

662 
WWUS53 KDTX 290237
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1037 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MIC157-290246-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180829T0300Z/
Tuscola MI-
1037 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN TUSCOLA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened and moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
southeastern Michigan.

LAT...LON 4367 8304 4377 8292 4397 8274 4369 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 263DEG 43KT 4414 8235 4396 8227 4349 8288 4324
8306

$$

MIC063-290300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180829T0300Z/
Huron MI-
1037 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HURON COUNTY...

At 1036 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 22 miles northeast of Port Hope to 20 miles east of 
Harbor Beach to near Sandusky to near Brown City, moving east at 
45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Ubly, Port Hope, Verona, Helena, Ruth and Parisville. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. 
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading 
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to 
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4367 8304 4377 8292 4397 8274 4369 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 263DEG 43KT 4414 8235 4396 8227 4349 8288 4324
8306

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AM

520 
WWUS53 KDTX 290246
SVSDTX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1046 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MIC063-290256-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180829T0300Z/
Huron MI-
1046 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HURON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
southeastern Michigan.

LAT...LON 4367 8304 4377 8292 4397 8274 4369 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 274DEG 40KT 4413 8221 4395 8213 4348 8274 4323
8292

$$

AM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
814 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

.UPDATE...

Severe thunderstorm watch in effect until 1 AM for areas along and
north of I-69, as mid level jet (60 knots at 500 MB) tracks through
northern lower Michigan. Thus, best forcing expected to reside north
of I-69. With effective shear of 40+ KTs and MLCAPES still up around
2500 J/KG, severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds appears
likely for Tri-Cities region and northern Thumb Region, potentially
extending into Flint Vicinity and southern Thumb Region. Once
diurnal instability wanes shortly after midnight, severe chances will
be diminished greatly, but heavy rain threat will exist, as the
boundary aligns a bit more west-east. However, big complex entering
Northern Illinois will tend to cutoff the moisture feed, and that
complex will likely track through Ohio Valley. Thus, good chance
Southeast Michigan will be fairly quiet most of the overnight period.
The cold front moving through tomorrow may attempt to flare up by
noon as daytime heating sets in, but indications is the front will
clear southeast Michigan by late afternoon, thus severe storms are
not expected as max instability looks to be well south of the border.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

AVIATION...

Thunderstorm complex crossing Lake Michigan and into Lower Michigan
this evening. Height falls/mid level jet (60 knots at 500 MB)
tracking through northern Lower Michigan will be the main focus of
activity, thus thunderstorm potential south of I-69 appears low,
especially with activity over northern Illinois stilling going,
helping to pinch off some of the moisture transport, and daytime
instability build up begins to wane. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR
conditions look to prevail. Moisture/stability axis slides through
tomorrow morning/early afternoon hours, and southern taf sites stand
the best chance of showers/thunderstorms going up before cold front
clears the state during late afternoon hours, with wind shift to
northwest.

For DTW... Low confidence in thunderstorms impacting terminal
tonight. Probably a slightly better chance around noon tomorrow with
the timing of cold front and modest diurnal destabilization, and
will introduce a prob30 15-18z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in thunderstorms tonight through tomorrow afternoon.

* Low in cigs aob 5000 feet tonight/tomorrow morning, medium
  tomorrow afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

DISCUSSION...

Much of the area remains under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
this evening into tonight, but chances drop off significantly south
of the I-696 corridor where any potential activity will be very late
to arrive during the overnight hours.

Notably better thunderstorm chances exist along & north of the I-69
corridor, generally from mid evening into the overnight. Expect very
active convection to expand in coverage/intensity to the west late
in the day and build steadily east through lower Michigan during the
evening hours. Increased atmospheric wind flow will combine with a
large pool of unstable air in the region to maintain this activity
as it encroaches on the area. Would expect some storms to produce
areas of damaging wind with a smaller possibly of large hail and/or
an isolated tornado as storms overspread northern portions of the
forecast area this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also a strong
possibility, especially where several rounds of thunderstorms occur.
Local rainfall amounts could very well reach the 2-4 inch range with
the heaviest/most persistent activity. A Flood Watch will remain in
effect from 6pm this evening to 8am Wednesday.

While the most active period of thunderstorms will likely occur from
mid evening to the midnight to 2am period as mature convective
elements work into the region, lingering showers and thunderstorms
should continue to funnel into all/part of the area overnight from
the west and settle slowly south to encompasses most of the forecast
area by daybreak. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will then remain a
possibly through Wednesday as a cold front settles southeast through
the area. Severe weather potential will be relatively low by that
time as best axis of instability should be squelched to the south
along southern edge of large convective outflow boundary that will
settle south of the region in the wake of clusters of thunderstorms
that occur over lower Michigan this evening/tonight.

Temperatures will cool considerably in the wake of the cold front,
settling back into the 70s late Wednesday. After lows dip well into
the 50s to around 60 from north to south across the area Wednesday
night, highs on Thursday will only struggle into the lower/mid 70s
(quite possibly upper 60s over parts of the Thumb with cool
northeast flow off of Lake Huron). Any remaining showers late on the
day Wednesday will end and dry weather is expected as high pressure
build into the area and provides this cooler weather regime.

Dry weather will continue on Friday as high pressure remains over
the area before some unsettled weather comes back into play for the
weekend.  The high on Friday will give way to weak low pressure
which is forecasted to move across the Great Lakes region on
Saturday and into early Sunday.  This low will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms as the associated cold front pushes across
the area.  Drier conditions then look to return by the beginning of
next week as high pressure once again settles in over the region.
Temperatures starting Friday and going through the weekend will stay
focused a little warmer with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

MARINE...

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through tonight ahead of a
cold front that will drop through the eastern lakes on Wednesday.
Highest winds look to cap off around 20 knots. This cold front will
produce another round of strong to severe thunderstorms which will
mainly impact the Lake Huron basin this evening into tonight. These
storms may produce locally higher wind gusts over 20 knots at times.
Winds will veer to the northwest early Wednesday in the wake of the
front while remaining up around 20 knots. High pressure will build
into the central Great Lakes behind the front Wednesday as it slowly
lifts northeast into Ontario. Marine headlines may be likely in the
wake of the cold front passage.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ047>049-053-054-060.

Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.......SF
AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...DG/SP
MARINE.......DRK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
738 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-291000-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-
738 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for locations along and north of
I-69.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through 1 AM. Thunderstorms
are likely this evening into tonight, some of which may be severe.
Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph will be the main hazard, along with
potential flash flooding. Large hail is a lesser threat, along with
a very low chance of a tornado. A flood watch is in effect for Tri-
Cities region and northern Thumb Region, as well as Shiawassee
county. Storm motion will be northeast around 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and again this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation has been activated.

MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-291000-
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
738 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for locations along and south of
M-59.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight, with a marginal chance
the storms will be severe. Damaging wind gusts are the primary
threat. Locally heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with the strongest storms. Storm motion will
be northeast around 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and again this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation has been activated.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-291000-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
738 PM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected this evening and tonight,
mainly over Lake Huron. Some of these storms will be severe producing
winds in excess of 60 knots. Torrential rainfall and frequent cloud
to ground lightning will also occur. Storm motion will be northeast
around 35 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday and again this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

SF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
819 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MIZ047-048-053-290115-
Bay-Saginaw-Midland-
819 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BAY...WESTERN SAGINAW
AND MIDLAND COUNTIES...

At 818 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Alma to near Martin.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Merrill around 845 PM EDT.
  Freeland around 900 PM EDT.
  Midland around 905 PM EDT.
  Auburn around 910 PM EDT.
  Bay City, Kawkawlin and Essexville around 915 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Brant, Nelson,
Garfield, Fenmore, Crump, Poseyville, Willard, Laporte, Averill and
Swan Creek.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4380 8461 4383 8417 4384 8417 4385 8392
      4381 8392 4376 8395 4377 8396 4371 8394
      4367 8391 4364 8381 4313 8428 4313 8436
      4347 8437 4347 8461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 247DEG 39KT 4331 8474 4255 8553

RBP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
908 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MIZ060-290145-
Shiawassee-
908 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SHIAWASSEE COUNTY...

At 907 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Elsie to Dewitt. Movement was east at 50
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Henderson around 920 PM EDT.
  Perry and Morrice around 930 PM EDT.
  Owosso and New Lothrop around 935 PM EDT.
  Corunna and Bancroft around 940 PM EDT.
  Durand and Lennon around 945 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Juddville,
Bennington, Shaftsburg, Carland and Vernon.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may cause
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 4313 8436 4313 8394 4279 8393 4277 8433
      4278 8436 4304 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 253DEG 42KT 4310 8438 4284 8458

SF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
926 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

MIZ049-054-055-290230-
Huron MI-Tuscola MI-Sanilac MI-
926 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TUSCOLA...NORTHWESTERN SANILAC
AND HURON COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

At 925 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a line of strong
thunderstorms near Unionville, or near Sebewaing, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

These strong thunderstorms will be near...  Gagetown and Owendale
around 935 PM EDT.
  Pigeon around 945 PM EDT.
  Elkton around 950 PM EDT.
  Bad Axe around 1000 PM EDT.
  Kinde around 1010 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Parisville,
Colling, Huron City, Wisner, Ivanhoe, Rapson, Grindstone City,
Ellington, Gilford and New Greenleaf.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for
southeastern Michigan.

LAT...LON 4401 8278 4343 8276 4340 8370 4359 8370
      4359 8367 4370 8349 4380 8341 4381 8345
      4382 8340 4388 8333 4390 8333 4391 8339
      4392 8332 4396 8327 4401 8311 4400 8307
      4403 8304 4407 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 232DEG 34KT 4367 8339

IRL