Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Des Moines, IA

793 
WWUS53 KDMX 020126 RRA
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
826 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

IAC123-020136-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0287.000000T0000Z-180902T0130Z/
Mahaska IA-
826 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAHASKA COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
south central and southeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4116 9252 4134 9258 4139 9241 4118 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 255DEG 36KT 4130 9233 

$$

Johnson

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
654 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

Very active weather pattern to persist through much of the forecast
period. Large sub-tropical high over the east central CONUS will
move slightly east and north over the next 24 hrs and will allow the
surface boundary to lift slightly north and focus over central Iowa.
This boundary will be the area of focus for thunderstorms tonight
through Monday. Very heavy rainfall remains the primary concern
during this period as repeated rounds of thunderstorms capable of
producing heavy rainfall.

Currently there is a lull in the thunderstorm activity. Weak surface
boundary was located from near Omaha to Des Moines then northeast
towards Waterloo. This boundary may settle a bit south tonight
before the aforementioned push back to the north. Another wave of
theta-e advection will lift into central Iowa late this afternoon
and into the early evening. This will moving into an area of nearly
uncapped instability near the surface boundary. This forcing may be
enough to trigger a few thunderstorms during this time period and
could have the potential for some large hail and possibly a damaging
wind gusts. Additional storms are expected to develop over Kansas
late this afternoon then the system may become linear and lift
northeast along the boundary and into central Iowa overnight. PWAT
values will remain near to above 2 inches along the boundary as deep
layer moisture advection continues with Gulf flow in the low levels
thanks to the high to the east and monsoonal flow in the mid-levels.
Based on heavy rain potential overnight and recent heavy rains along
with expected focus overnight, will be reorienting the Flash Flood
watch farther north tonight.

Likely will need additional headlines the next few days over central
Iowa for heavy rainfall. The rainfall potential by Tuesday will
shift further northwest on Tuesday with heavy rain remaining
possible. The upper flow will flatted on Wednesday with westerly
flow prevailing through the rest of the period. This will allow the
boundary to drop south but should hangup over southern Iowa/northern
Missouri as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. This should bring
lower threat for thunderstorms north while the south remains active.
Temperature by the end of the week will drop into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

Rain showers and thunderstorms will continue to be the main
concern overnight and into the morning. Thunderstorms will be
isolated in nature, and showers will become more widespread
throughout the period. For the most part, conditions will prevail
in the lower range of MVFR. There may be brief periods of IFR if
a downpour occurs directly over a terminal. Confidence in
thunderstorm is occurrence is high across central Iowa is high,
direct impacts to specific terminals is medium.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for IAZ025>028-034>039-
045>050-057>062-070>075.

&&

DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Krull

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
354 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023-024-033-044-081>086-092>097-022100-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Sac-Crawford-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-
Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
354 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Periods of strong to severe storms will be possible this evening
and overnight, especially over the southern half to two thirds of
the state. Main threats will be for damaging winds and heavy
rainfall, though severe hail is not out of the question. Heavy
rainfall may cause localized water issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There will be periods of thunderstorms, especially during the
overnight hours throughout this period. Widespread severe weather
is not likely but a few storms from time to time may be strong to
severe. Damaging winds will likely be the main threats with any
stronger storms.

Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm. River
flooding and flash flood threats could increase Sunday into next
week due to the continued heavy rain threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected though severe weather and
rainfall reports are appreciated.

IAZ025>028-034>039-045>050-057>062-070>075-022100-
Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-
Grundy-Black Hawk-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-
Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-
354 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are
possible this evening and overnight. The main threats will be for
heavy rainfall and damaging winds, though large hail is not out
of the question. Areas that see heavy rainfall may experience
exacerbated water issues since many have received recent moderate
to heavy rainfall.

A flash flood watch is in effect for the area, please visit
www.weather.gov/desmoines for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There will be periods of thunderstorms, especially during the
overnight hours throughout this period. Widespread severe weather
is not likely but a few storms from time to time may be strong to
severe. Damaging winds will likely be the main threats with any
stronger storms.

Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm. River
flooding and flash flood threats could increase Sunday into next
week due to the continued heavy rain threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected though severe weather and rainfall
reports are appreciated.

CURTIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
743 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             3 W ALTOONA             41.64N 93.54W
09/01/2018  E1.75 INCH       POLK               IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTED AT DELAWARE TOWNSHIP FD.

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
745 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             3 WSW ALTOONA           41.64N 93.53W
09/01/2018  E1.00 INCH       POLK               IA   PUBLIC

&&

AK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
752 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             DALLAS CENTER           41.68N 93.96W
09/01/2018  E0.88 INCH       DALLAS             IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
753 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             BONDURANT               41.69N 93.46W
09/01/2018  E1.75 INCH       POLK               IA   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
758 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             4 SE SAYLORVILLE        41.64N 93.56W
09/01/2018  E2.00 INCH       POLK               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED IN NORWOODVILLE NEIGHBORHOOD IN DES
            MOINES. VIA WHO TV. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
808 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     HAIL             1 NNW BONDURANT         41.70N 93.47W
09/01/2018  E1.75 INCH       POLK               IA   PUBLIC

            VIA MPING. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

BSS