Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Des Moines, IA

798 
WWUS53 KDMX 141600
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

IAC135-141609-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-180614T1630Z/
Monroe IA-
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4110 9255 4121 9261 4137 9241 4116 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 232DEG 42KT 4120 9251 

$$

IAC123-179-141630-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-180614T1630Z/
Wapello IA-Mahaska IA-
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WAPELLO AND SOUTHEASTERN MAHASKA COUNTIES...

At 1059 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Eddyville, or 
9 miles southeast of Oskaloosa, moving northeast at 50 mph.  The 
storm is weakening but quarter sized hail is still possible.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Fremont, Rose Hill, Kirkville and Oskaloosa Municipal Airport. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4110 9255 4121 9261 4137 9241 4116 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 232DEG 42KT 4120 9251 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Boksa

864 
WWUS53 KDMX 141606
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1106 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

IAC123-179-141616-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-180614T1630Z/
Wapello IA-Mahaska IA-
1106 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WAPELLO AND
SOUTHEASTERN MAHASKA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4110 9255 4121 9261 4137 9241 4116 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 232DEG 42KT 4125 9242 

$$

Boksa

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
558 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Strong theta-e advection ongoing into central Iowa this morning
as strong low level jet directing moisture into the state.
Convection has recently developed where this strong moisture
advection is occurring on the nose of strong MUCape. Have had a
few reports of hail with a two inch report near Moorland early
this morning with one of the stronger storms. Will continue to see
a few storms approach or exceed severe criteria into this morning
as the instability builds into the state with main concern
continuing from large hail. The CAMs slowly progress this
convection east this morning with an apparent MCV developing as
the storms become more widespread. Also anticipate heavy rainfall
with these storms with PWATs climbing to over 1.5".

Most of the storms will pass east of the forecast area by midday
with building thickness/heat into the state thereafter.
Temperatures should climb nicely, especially in the west where
clouds from the morning convection should give way to some
sunshine. This warmth will continue into tonight with lows around
70s in most locations as the warm/humid airmass spreads over the
state. Convection tonight will mainly be north and east of the
forecast area where the strongest moisture advection will occur
although the far northeast portions of the forecast area may see
a stray storm.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/
Issued at 409 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

From Friday through Sunday our weather will be dominated by a
mid-level ridge centered over the southeast U.S. and building over
Iowa. This will bring persistent hot weather to our forecast area,
with high temperatures well into the 90s and heat index values
approaching or topping 100 degrees each day. In addition southerly
breezes will hold overnight temperatures in the 70s, with lows in
the mid to upper 70s in many areas. This scenario will likely
justify a long-duration heat advisory, which could be issued as
soon as this afternoon. All outdoor interests this weekend should
plan to take appropriate precautions for potentially hazardous
heat. The aforementioned mid-level ridge will also set up a
proverbial "ring of fire" scenario in which multiple rounds of
convection will fire on the northwestern periphery of the ridge.
Initially these storms may sneak into our far northern counties,
on Friday night and/or Saturday night, but generally the bulk of
the activity will remain to our north and northwest across South
Dakota and Minnesota.

On Sunday night or Monday the ridge will begin to break down, at
least across our region, as a broad 500 mb trough slowly
approaches from the west. This will bring a surface trough through
Iowa, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. However, various
prognostic model runs continue to show a high degree of
variability in both the timing of this trough passage and also in
the extent to which it will progress south of the area as opposed
to stalling out nearer to the Iowa/Missouri border. Either way, by
Tuesday and possibly by Monday we will see relief from the heat
as the trough moves through, and it will then remain to be seen
whether we get a few days of sunny and dry weather or whether the
decayed frontal zone comes back northward much quicker, bringing a
return of clouds and rain. This makes the forecast quite
uncertain toward the middle of next week, though the one thing
that can be said with some confidence is that the upcoming heat
wave will not last past Monday at the latest.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning/
Issued at 558 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Main concern in the forecast will be over the next six hours as
convection pushes across central Iowa. This will produce areas of
restricted visibilities and ceilings due to heavy rain. Surface
winds will also be erratic in and around thunderstorms. However,
the activity is expected to move east of the forecast area by this
afternoon with widespread VFR conditions returning for the
remainder of the forecast. Non-convective LLWS is also expected
later tonight as the low level jet increases.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cogil
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Cogil

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
340 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>038-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-151100-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-
Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-
Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-
Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
340 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will affect Iowa this morning, mainly
north of Interstate 80. A few storms could be strong to severe,
with large hail the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible at times across far northern Iowa from
Friday night through Sunday night. A few of these storms could be
strong to severe, but most of the activity will be north of the
border in Minnesota. More widespread thunderstorms may be possible
at times from Monday through Tuesday, but confidence is lower and
the severe weather threat is uncertain during that time.

Hot and humid conditions will prevail from Friday through at least
Sunday and perhaps into Monday. Heat index values will approach
or exceed 100 degrees each afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

IAZ039-151100-
Black Hawk-
340 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the area this morning. A few
storms could be strong to severe, with large hail the primary
threat.

A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Cedar River
basin at Cedar Falls. Please refer to our website at
weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm chances will return to the area between Monday and
Tuesday of next week. The severe weather threat is uncertain at
this time.

Hot and humid conditions will prevail from Friday through at least
Sunday and perhaps into Monday. Heat index values will approach
or exceed 100 degrees each afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Lee

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1009 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HEAVY RAIN       AMES                    42.03N 93.62W
06/14/2018  E4.75 INCH       STORY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1020 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW AMES              42.02N 93.64W
06/14/2018  M5.40 INCH       STORY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1027 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E AMES                42.02N 93.55W
06/14/2018  M6.50 INCH       STORY              IA   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1028 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

IAZ072>075-141730-
Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-
Including the cities of Winterset, Earlham, Indianola, Norwalk,
Carlisle, Pella, Knoxville, and Oskaloosa
1028 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

...Storms Bringing Strong Wind and Heavy Rainfall...

A line of thunderstorms is moving southeast at 15 mph. Wind gusts
between 35 and 45 mph are likely along with torrential rainfall
and small hail. Up to two inches of rain in an hour is possible
with locally higher amounts. Be prepared for loose or lightweight
object to move around with strong wind gusts. Flash flooding is a
concern as well. Never cross water covered roads.

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1044 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 AM     HEAVY RAIN       AMES                    42.02N 93.64W
06/14/2018  M5.40 INCH       STORY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/2 MILE SOUTH OF ISU CAMPUS.

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1047 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     HAIL             1 WNW ALBIA             41.03N 92.81W
06/14/2018  E1.50 INCH       MONROE             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BF