Alert archive / Iowa / Flash Flood Watches in 2018

Flash Flood Watch 8, NWS Des Moines, IA

September 1, 201840 counties in Iowa

NWS Des Moines, IA issued this flash flood watch at Sep 1, 2018, 4:38 AM CDT for 40 counties in Iowa. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 1, 2018, 4:38 AM CDT (09:38 UTC)
Expired
Sep 2, 2018, 4:14 AM CDT
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Des Moines, IA
Flood severity
None
All 40 counties

Adair County, IA, Adams County, IA, Appanoose County, IA, Audubon County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Butler County, IA, Calhoun County, IA, Carroll County, IA, Cass County, IA, Clarke County, IA, Dallas County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Greene County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Guthrie County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Lucas County, IA, Madison County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Marion County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Monroe County, IA, Polk County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Ringgold County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Taylor County, IA, Union County, IA, Wapello County, IA, Warren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Webster County, IA, Wright County, IA

The radar

The Des Moines radar (KDMX), 14 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 236 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2018-09-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2615 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2018-09-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 186 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2615 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-112 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1197 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
186 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
306 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.2
Supercell composite
24.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

000 
WGUS63 KDMX 010938
FFADMX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
438 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

.Locally heavy rainfall occurred over parts of east central into
south central Iowa early Saturday morning. While a break in the 
rainfall is expected later this morning into the
afternoon...multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected from
late afternoon through tonight. These storms will likely occur
over the same areas that received heavy rainfall early this
morning and with already saturated soils...flash flooding may
occur with the additional storms.


IAZ039-049-050-061-062-074-075-083>085-094-095-011745-
/O.NEW.KDMX.FF.A.0008.180901T0938Z-180902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Jasper-Poweshiek-Marion-Mahaska-Clarke-
Lucas-Monroe-Decatur-Wayne-
Including the cities of Waterloo, Cedar Falls, Marshalltown, 
Tama, Toledo, Traer, Dysart, Gladbrook, Newton, Grinnell, Pella, 
Knoxville, Oskaloosa, Osceola, Chariton, Albia, Lamoni, Leon, 
Corydon, Seymour, Allerton, and Humeston
438 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Des Moines has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Iowa, northeast 
  Iowa, and south central Iowa, including the following areas, 
  in central Iowa, Jasper, Marshall, Poweshiek, and Tama. In 
  northeast Iowa, Black Hawk. In south central Iowa, Clarke, 
  Decatur, Lucas, Mahaska, Marion, Monroe, and Wayne. 

* Through Sunday morning

* Locally heavy rainfall early Saturday morning in excess of 4
  inches with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall this afternoon 
  and tonight expected in the same area.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooded roadways and the washing out of
  some rural roads. Rivers and streams may also be impacted. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

FAB
4 follow-up statements
140 
WGUS63 KDMX 011601
FFADMX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1101 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Heavy Rain Possible Across the Area Again Tonight...

.Locally heavy rainfall occurred over parts of east central into
south central Iowa early this morning. While a break in the 
rainfall will occur...additional thunderstorms capable of
producing heavy rainfall are possible again from late afternoon 
through tonight. The latest analysis shows the focus for storms 
tonight maybe shifting more into central and northern Iowa. A 
shift in the focus for precipitation will likely cause a 
reorientation of the watch later today.

IAZ039-049-050-061-062-074-075-083>085-094-095-020015-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-180902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Jasper-Poweshiek-Marion-Mahaska-Clarke-
Lucas-Monroe-Decatur-Wayne-
Including the cities of Waterloo, Cedar Falls, Marshalltown, 
Tama, Toledo, Traer, Dysart, Gladbrook, Newton, Grinnell, Pella, 
Knoxville, Oskaloosa, Osceola, Chariton, Albia, Lamoni, Leon, 
Corydon, Seymour, Allerton, and Humeston
1101 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Iowa, northeast Iowa, and south central 
  Iowa, including the following areas, in central Iowa, Jasper, 
  Marshall, Poweshiek, and Tama. In northeast Iowa, Black Hawk. 
  In south central Iowa, Clarke, Decatur, Lucas, Mahaska, 
  Marion, Monroe, and Wayne. 

* Through Sunday morning

* Locally heavy rainfall possible again tonight.

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooded roadways and the washing out 
  of some rural roads. Rivers and streams may also be impacted. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize
the dangers of flooding.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
231 
WGUS63 KDMX 012035
FFADMX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
335 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Heavy Rain Possible Across Portions of Central Iowa through
Tonight...

.Thunderstorms are expected to develop again late this afternoon
and tonight. A few storms are possible late this afternoon into
the early evening with more widespread activity arriving mid
evening and overnight. These storms will bring the potential for
another round of heavy rainfall to the area. This area will have
the potential for several more rounds of heavy rain again Sunday
and Monday.

IAZ083>085-094-095-012145-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-180902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Decatur-Wayne-
Including the cities of Osceola, Chariton, Albia, Lamoni, Leon, 
Corydon, Seymour, Allerton, and Humeston
335 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of south central Iowa has
been cancelled. 

The main focus for thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
rainfall will be north of the area tonight.

$$

IAZ025>028-034>038-045>048-057>060-070>073-020445-
/O.EXA.KDMX.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-180902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-
Grundy-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-
Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-
Including the cities of Eagle Grove, Clarion, Belmond, Hampton, 
Parkersburg, Clarksville, Shell Rock, Greene, Aplington, Allison,
Dumont, Waverly, Rockwell City, Manson, Lake City, Pomeroy, 
Fort Dodge, Webster City, Iowa Falls, Eldora, Ackley, 
Grundy Center, Reinbeck, Conrad, Dike, Wellsburg, Carroll, 
Jefferson, Boone, Ames, Audubon, Exira, Guthrie Center, Panora, 
Bayard, Casey, Perry, Waukee, Adel, Des Moines, Atlantic, 
Greenfield, Stuart, Adair, Fontanelle, Winterset, Earlham, 
Indianola, Norwalk, and Carlisle
335 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Des Moines has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of central Iowa, north 
  central Iowa, northeast Iowa, south central Iowa, southwest 
  Iowa, and west central Iowa, including the following areas, in 
  central Iowa, Boone, Dallas, Grundy, Hamilton, Hardin, Polk, 
  Story, and Webster. In north central Iowa, Butler, Franklin, 
  and Wright. In northeast Iowa, Bremer. In south central Iowa, 
  Madison and Warren. In southwest Iowa, Adair and Cass. In west 
  central Iowa, Audubon, Calhoun, Carroll, Greene, and Guthrie. 

* Through Sunday morning

* Areas with heavy rainfall possible again tonight. Rainfall
  amounts of 1 to 3 inches may occur with local amounts over 5
  inches possible. 

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooded roadways and the washing out of
  some rural roads. Significant ponding of water is also likely.
  Rivers and streams may be impacted.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize
the dangers of flooding.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

IAZ039-049-050-061-062-074-075-020445-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-180902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Jasper-Poweshiek-Marion-Mahaska-
Including the cities of Waterloo, Cedar Falls, Marshalltown, 
Tama, Toledo, Traer, Dysart, Gladbrook, Newton, Grinnell, Pella, 
Knoxville, and Oskaloosa
335 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Iowa, northeast Iowa, and south central 
  Iowa, including the following areas, in central Iowa, Jasper, 
  Marshall, Poweshiek, and Tama. In northeast Iowa, Black Hawk. 
  In south central Iowa, Mahaska and Marion. 

* Through Sunday morning

* Areas with heavy rainfall possible again tonight. Rainfall
  amounts of 1 to 3 inches may occur with local amounts over 5
  inches possible. 

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooded roadways and the washing out of
  some rural roads. Significant ponding of water is also likely.
  Rivers and streams may be impacted.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize
the dangers of flooding.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
186 
WGUS63 KDMX 020142
FFADMX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
842 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Heavy Rain Possible Across Portions of Central Iowa through
Tonight...

.Thunderstorms are expected to develop again late this afternoon
and tonight. A few storms are possible late this afternoon into
the early evening with more widespread activity arriving mid
evening and overnight. These storms will bring the potential for
another round of heavy rainfall to the area. This area will have
the potential for several more rounds of heavy rain again Sunday
and Monday.

IAZ081>086-092>097-020945-
/O.EXA.KDMX.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-180902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-
Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
Including the cities of Corning, Creston, Osceola, Chariton, 
Albia, Ottumwa, Bedford, Lenox, New Market, Mount Ayr, Lamoni, 
Leon, Corydon, Seymour, Allerton, Humeston, Centerville, 
and Bloomfield
842 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Des Moines has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of south central Iowa, 
  southeast Iowa, and southwest Iowa, including the following 
  areas, in south central Iowa, Appanoose, Clarke, Decatur, 
  Lucas, Monroe, Ringgold, Union, and Wayne. In southeast Iowa, 
  Davis and Wapello. In southwest Iowa, Adams and Taylor. 

* Until 7 AM CDT Sunday

* Areas with heavy rainfall possible again tonight. Rainfall 
  amounts of 1 to 3 inches may occur with local amounts over 5 
  inches possible. 

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooded roadways and the washing out 
  of some rural roads. Significant ponding of water is also 
  likely. Rivers and streams may be impacted. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize
the dangers of flooding.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

IAZ025>028-034>039-045>050-057>062-070>075-020945-
/O.CON.KDMX.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-180902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-
Grundy-Black Hawk-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-
Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-
Including the cities of Eagle Grove, Clarion, Belmond, Hampton, 
Parkersburg, Clarksville, Shell Rock, Greene, Aplington, Allison,
Dumont, Waverly, Rockwell City, Manson, Lake City, Pomeroy, 
Fort Dodge, Webster City, Iowa Falls, Eldora, Ackley, 
Grundy Center, Reinbeck, Conrad, Dike, Wellsburg, Waterloo, 
Cedar Falls, Carroll, Jefferson, Boone, Ames, Marshalltown, Tama,
Toledo, Traer, Dysart, Gladbrook, Audubon, Exira, Guthrie Center,
Panora, Bayard, Casey, Perry, Waukee, Adel, Des Moines, Newton, 
Grinnell, Atlantic, Greenfield, Stuart, Adair, Fontanelle, 
Winterset, Earlham, Indianola, Norwalk, Carlisle, Pella, 
Knoxville, and Oskaloosa
842 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Iowa, north central Iowa, northeast Iowa, 
  south central Iowa, southwest Iowa, and west central Iowa, 
  including the following areas, in central Iowa, Boone, Dallas, 
  Grundy, Hamilton, Hardin, Jasper, Marshall, Polk, Poweshiek, 
  Story, Tama, and Webster. In north central Iowa, Butler, 
  Franklin, and Wright. In northeast Iowa, Black Hawk and 
  Bremer. In south central Iowa, Madison, Mahaska, Marion, and 
  Warren. In southwest Iowa, Adair and Cass. In west central 
  Iowa, Audubon, Calhoun, Carroll, Greene, and Guthrie. 

* Until 7 AM CDT Sunday

* Areas with heavy rainfall possible again tonight. Rainfall 
  amounts of 1 to 3 inches may occur with local amounts over 5 
  inches possible. 

* Heavy rainfall may cause flooded roadways and the washing out 
  of some rural roads. Significant ponding of water is also 
  likely. Rivers and streams may be impacted. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize
the dangers of flooding.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
313 
WGUS63 KDMX 020914
FFADMX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
414 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

...The Heavy Rain Threat Has Ended For Now...

.The threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding has ended for 
now. Additional thunderstorms are expected later today and 
especially tonight. Additional flash flood watches may be needed 
later today once the area of heaviest rainfall can be better
determined. 

IAZ025>028-034>039-045>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-021015-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FF.A.0008.000000T0000Z-180902T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-
Grundy-Black Hawk-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-
Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
Including the cities of Eagle Grove, Clarion, Belmond, Hampton, 
Parkersburg, Clarksville, Shell Rock, Greene, Aplington, Allison,
Dumont, Waverly, Rockwell City, Manson, Lake City, Pomeroy, 
Fort Dodge, Webster City, Iowa Falls, Eldora, Ackley, 
Grundy Center, Reinbeck, Conrad, Dike, Wellsburg, Waterloo, 
Cedar Falls, Carroll, Jefferson, Boone, Ames, Marshalltown, Tama,
Toledo, Traer, Dysart, Gladbrook, Audubon, Exira, Guthrie Center,
Panora, Bayard, Casey, Perry, Waukee, Adel, Des Moines, Newton, 
Grinnell, Atlantic, Greenfield, Stuart, Adair, Fontanelle, 
Winterset, Earlham, Indianola, Norwalk, Carlisle, Pella, 
Knoxville, Oskaloosa, Corning, Creston, Osceola, Chariton, Albia,
Ottumwa, Bedford, Lenox, New Market, Mount Ayr, Lamoni, Leon, 
Corydon, Seymour, Allerton, Humeston, Centerville, and Bloomfield
414 AM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Iowa, north central
Iowa, northeast Iowa, south central Iowa, southeast Iowa,
southwest Iowa, and west central Iowa has been cancelled. the
thunderstorms responsible for producing heavy rainfall have moved
out of the watch area. Additional thunderstorms are likely later
today and especially tonight with more heavy rainfall possible.
There may be a need for another Flash Flood Watch tonight for some
part of central Iowa. Please watch for later updates.

$$

FAB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Sep 1, 12:27 AM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 1, 12:27 AM CDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1227 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

A swath of showers and thunderstorms currently extends from west
central Iowa down into Missouri and is slowly progressing
eastward. Convection within this swath has been more or less
steady state all day as it has approached from Nebraska and has
thus far shown no signs of organization. Despite fairly high
instability ahead of the rain across central and eastern Iowa,
mesoanalysis indicates substantial convective inhibition due to
warm temperatures aloft. This, combined with a relative lack of
deep shear, is likely what is inhibiting any intensification.
While the storms bear watching as they progress across our
forecast area in the next several hours, the odds of severe
weather from them appear low overall.

Short-term model guidance has consistently predicted secondary
development of additional thunderstorms across parts of western
Iowa after sunset tonight, around 01-02Z, which then move fairly
quickly eastward as a multi-cell cluster or possibly bowing line.
This appears to be the result of modest low-level convergence
upstream interacting with the developing nocturnal low-level jet.
However, very few of the models are depicting the current western
Iowa rain in their initializations, and it is difficult to
determine what effect this will have on the veracity of their
solutions. Nevertheless, given the persistence of the schedule and
the stronger forcing of the developing LLJ, have maintained POPs
that reflect this scenario. If the storms do develop as expected
then they will have an attendant threat of strong winds as the
progress eastward across central Iowa tonight.

Meanwhile, well to our north/northwest across Minnesota and
Dakotas, a separate area of intense thunderstorms will form near
the synoptic boundary this evening. This will likely produce an
elongated outflow boundary that will travel east southeastward
overnight, accompanied by at least a broken band of convection.
This feature will likely impact at least our northern and
northeastern counties between midnight and sunrise, again with an
attendant threat of strong winds.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday night through Friday/
Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

The long term forecast period remains unusually active and wet as
Iowa will reside beneath very persistent west southwesterly flow
aloft, allowing a nearly continuous fetch of moisture advection
into a quasi-stationary surface boundary draped across the Upper
Midwest.

Overnight thunderstorms may linger into Saturday morning in our
eastern counties, otherwise there may be a brief quiet period from
mid-morning into mid-afternoon Saturday as it will take some time
to destabilize behind the overnight convection, which will also
have left behind an outflow boundary somewhere over central Iowa.
Diurnal heating will result in a high to extreme degree of
instability south of this boundary, probably roughly south of
Highway 30, which should be enough to generate robust thunderstorm
development near the boundary in the late afternoon/evening. Have
carried increased POPs to account for this, but they are
necessarily broad-brushed in deference to uncertainty regarding
the location of the boundary. While the degree of instability in
proximity to the boundary will support a severe weather threat, it
should be fairly localized and a lack of deep-layer shear will
likely result in a quick transition to more of a heavy
rain/flooding threat, which will become the primary hazard for the
remainder of the event. Most of the forecast area has been devoid
of heavy rains lately, but if the storms manage to persist over a
metro or flood-prone area then flooding concerns will be enhanced.

On Saturday night the nocturnal LLJ will develop once again, and
it's more southerly orientation along with somewhat more
southwesterly flow aloft may act to push the boundary and storms
northward. Model solutions diverge somewhat on this point, but it
is likely that the jet will keep storms redeveloping for much of
the night, so if they are able to move northward then that will
spread out the heavy rain threat, while a more stationary boundary
would result in more localized but much higher flooding potential.
This will certainly bear watching as we head into the weekend.

From Sunday through next week the overall pattern will remain
essentially unchanged. One or more boundaries will waffle around
the area, being repeatedly activated by mid-level shortwave
impulses, diurnal heating, and/or LLJ redevelopment. This will
result in a continued intermittent threat of severe weather and
heavy rain, with the heavy rain and flooding concerns being a
higher threat for the most part. There is no significant pattern
change foreseen until at least late next week, and possibly
longer.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night/
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

The main concern throughout the period will be the development of
rain showers and thunderstorms as front lifts northward across
Iowa throughout Saturday morning. Rain shower and thunderstorms
will likely develop in clusters, and gradually increase in
coverage throughout the period. This will result in MVFR
conditions across the terminals as the morning progresses. IFR
conditions may briefly develop if thunderstorms move directly
over the terminals. The other concern overnight into the morning
will be low-level wind shear at ALO, DSM, and OTM as the low-
level jet continues to pass through the area. This is the
beginning to what will be a rather wet weekend.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lee
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Krull
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 1, 4:25 AM CDT, 13 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
425 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>038-044>048-057>060-070>073-081-
082-086-092-093-096-097-020930-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-
Story-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Adams-
Union-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Appanoose-Davis-
425 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon through tonight. Damaging wind gusts is the main
threat along with heavy rainfall. Large hail is a secondary
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There will be periods of thunderstorms, especially during the
overnight hours, through Thursday. Widespread severe weather is
not likely but a few storms from time to time may be strong to
severe. Damaging winds will likely be the main threats with any
stronger storms.

Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm. River
flooding and flash flood threats could increase Sunday into next
week due to the continued heavy rain threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected though rainfall reports are
appreciated.

IAZ039-049-050-061-062-074-075-083>085-094-095-020930-
Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-Jasper-Poweshiek-Marion-Mahaska-Clarke-
Lucas-Monroe-Decatur-Wayne-
425 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the area. Please refer to
the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon through tonight. Damaging wind gusts is the main
threat along with heavy rainfall. Large hail is a secondary
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There will be periods of thunderstorms, especially during the
overnight hours, through Thursday. Widespread severe weather is
not likely but a few storms from time to time may be strong to
severe. Damaging winds will likely be the main threats with any
stronger storms.

Heavy rainfall will be possible with any thunderstorm. River
flooding and flash flood threats could increase Sunday into next
week due to the continued heavy rain threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected though rainfall reports are
appreciated.

FAB

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 1, 2:03 AM CDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
203 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

IAZ039-050-062-075-010815-
Black Hawk-Tama-Poweshiek-Mahaska-
Including the cities of Waterloo, Cedar Falls, Tama, Toledo,
Traer, Dysart, Gladbrook, Grinnell, and Oskaloosa
203 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Thunderstorms With Locally Heavy Rainfall...

A line of thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall of up to
2 to 3 inches per hour will continue moving through the region
over the next hour. Ponding of water and minor street flooding
will be likely with this line of storms as it moves across the
region.

The storms will also produce some small hail as well as potential
gusty winds to 40 to 45 mph. Persons traveling should use caution
and be aware of the possibility of possible street flooding and
low visibility as the storms continuing moving east though 3 am
this Saturday morning.

REV
Special weather statement, Sep 1, 2:35 AM CDT, 2 hours 3 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
235 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

IAZ070>072-082-083-093-094-010945-
Cass-Adair-Madison-Union-Clarke-Ringgold-Decatur-
Including the cities of Atlantic, Greenfield, Stuart, Adair,
Fontanelle, Winterset, Earlham, Creston, Osceola, Mount Ayr,
Lamoni, and Leon
235 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Strong Thunderstorms Moving through The Region...

An area of strong thunderstorms continues to move through the area
early this Saturday morning. The storms are capable of producing
winds to near 50 mph at times as well as heavy rainfall. Radar
estimates of 1 to up to 3 inches of rainfall will be possible
with some of the thunderstorms. Also hail up to penny sized will
be possible with the storms.

Though no severe weather is occurring at this time...the storms
may yet produce some severe weather overnight tonight with large
hail and strong winds the main threats.

REV
Local storm report, Sep 1, 2:38 AM CDT, 2 hours before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
238 AM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     HAIL             KNOXVILLE               41.32N 93.10W
09/01/2018  M0.75 INCH       MARION             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

REV
Local storm report, Sep 1, 2:56 AM CDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
256 AM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     HAIL             MALCOM                  41.71N 92.55W
09/01/2018  E1.00 INCH       POWESHIEK          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY DVN NWS.

&&

REV
Local storm report, Sep 1, 3:06 AM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
306 AM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 W MURRAY              41.04N 93.98W
09/01/2018  M57 MPH          CLARKE             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTS NICKEL HAIL AND 0.83 INCHES RAINFALL
            AS WELL.

&&

REV
Local storm report, Sep 1, 4:28 AM CDT, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
428 AM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LEON                    40.74N 93.75W
09/01/2018                   DECATUR            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF POWER LINES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGE
            IN LEON. DELAYED REPORT. BASEMENT FLOODING
            ALSO REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

REV

The office that day

Everything else NWS Des Moines, IA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 31, 10:01 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementDMXCass59 min
Aug 31, 10:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAudubon, Cass51 min
Aug 31, 10:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXJasper, Mahaska, Marion, Poweshiek50 min
Sep 1, 1:01 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXMahaska22 min
Sep 1, 1:28 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdair, Adams, Cass, Union47 min
Sep 1, 3:35 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXPoweshiek, Tama6 hr
Sep 1, 4:21 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXClarke, Decatur5 hr
Sep 1, 4:38 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXTama6 hr
Sep 1, 5:22 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningDMXRinggold, Union4 hr
Sep 1, 5:45 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXClarke, Madison, Union, Warren29 min
Sep 1, 6:30 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdair, Adams, Cass45 min
Sep 1, 6:57 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdair, Madison, Union48 min
Sep 1, 7:24 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXAdair, Dallas, Guthrie, Madison, Polk, Warren51 min
Sep 1, 6:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDMXDallas, Madison, Polk52 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Iowa, 2018Every flash flood watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.