Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
554 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

...Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Current thunderstorms across Kearny county producing up to nickel
sized hail and wind gusts up to 40mph. These are not expected to
become severe as they move to the northwest around 15mph into
northwestern Finney and southeastern Scott counties in the next
hour. Rain showers also continue to fall in northwestern Trego
county and much of Ellis county expecting to push out of the area
in the next hour or so. Next round of thunderstorms expected to
come out of eastern Colorado into far western Kansas around sunset
and pushing eastward through tonight and over night hours reaching
Garden City and Liberal around 10PM and Dodge City and Hays around
11PM then to Medicine Lodge and Pratt around midnight. These
storms in the night time hours not expected to be severe but
isolated flooding issues will be a concern with 1-2 inches
expected in some areas, especially along the I-70 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

A few showers have developed over our northeast counties this
afternoon, roughly along a Larned to Trego Center line. These
showers are associated with isentropic ascent ahead of a storm
system that will by moving through the region this evening. While
convective allowing models don't have a good handle on these
showers, they are expected to move northeast out of the area
within a few hours.

Upper level water vapor imagery this afternoon is showing an
energetic 581 dm closed low over southern Montana. A shortwave
associated with this low has entered the northern Rockies, which
has provided forcing for ascent along a surface cold front in
eastern Colorado, where storms have already begun to develop.
Convective Allowing Models have had good agreement about these
storms becoming more organized as they move east into more
favorable shear and instability. While the chances for severe
weather wane as these storms cross into Western Kansas around
7-9pm tonight, I do agree with SPC's Slight Risk of severe storms
for our southwest counties. Large hail up to golfball size is
possible in this area, as well as severe wind (58mph+). As the
storms move east through western Kansas and become linear, strong
to severe wind and heavy rain, with possible flash flooding,
become the threat. Widespread 0.5" to 1" rain is expected tonight,
with locally higher amounts possible. This system will exit our
eastern zones Sunday morning as the parent upper level low moves
into southern Nebraska and pushes an attendant "cold" front
through the region. The GFS and ECMWF both show another round of
rain developing the backside of this low along, mostly affecting
the I-70 corridor Sunday early to mid-afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

By Sunday night, rain will have moved east out of the region, and
the we will have a chance to dry out until Tuesday. Both the GFS
and the ECMWF show the next chance for rain on Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

Current VFR conditions for all TAF sites for the next few hours.
Thunderstorms are expected to affect LBL and GCK by 03Z and DDC
and HYS by 04Z as a deep short wave trough pushes across the CWA
and much of western Kansas. This will bring MVFR ceilings down to
around 2500 feet and restricted visibility to around 4 miles in
storm. Thunderstorms are expected to last through 07Z and 08Z
respectively with vicinity storms through 11Z and 12Z before
pushing east of the TAF sites. Improving conditions expected after
sunrise with ceilings scattering out to mid level heights with
winds turning out of the north to northwest around 10-12kts for
much of the remainder of the day as high pressure builds in across
eastern Colorado into western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  82  62  79 /  90  50  20  10
GCK  65  82  59  79 /  90  20  10   0
EHA  63  84  57  81 /  80  10   0   0
LBL  65  84  60  81 /  80  10  10   0
HYS  66  77  61  76 / 100  80  30  10
P28  68  83  64  81 / 100  80  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Lowe
SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Lowe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
251 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
251 AM CDT Sat Aug 18 2018 /151 AM MDT Sat Aug 18 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
western counties late this afternoon. Some of these storms will be
capable of marginally severe hail (quarter size) and wind gusts
(60 mph). Numerous thunderstorms are expected this evening and
tonight. These storms will produce heavy rainfall and frequent
dangerous lightning. Some strong wind gusts near 50 mph are
possible through about midnight. A limited flooding risk is
expected, concentrated mostly south and east of Dodge City through
Sunday morning.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Thunderstorm Wind Damage: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm Hail: Limited risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms will linger across the eastern zones through Sunday
morning with a continued risk for lightning and heavy rain.

The next chance of scattered thunderstorms is scheduled for
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Flooding: Limited risk

* Monday
  No hazards.

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this evening, mainly west of
US Highway 283.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Turner

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