Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Another cluster of storms is anticipated this evening into the
overnight period. Storms are expected to initiate and/or move into
west central Kansas around 00Z and trek southeastward through the
CWA. Models also suggest a second cluster of storms to form across
southern Nebraska and move into central Kansas a few hours later.
A few of these storms look to become severe with hail up to 2
inches, winds over 60 mph, and frequent lightning being the main
concern. With how moist the ground is, flooding may also be an
issue. Skies will become mostly cloudy overnight with some
clearing across far western Kansas towards sunrise. There may be a
few lingering showers across south central Kansas by sunrise
tomorrow. Otherwise expect decreasing cloudiness throughout the
day. Winds will generally be from a southeasterly direction
overnight then more of a northeasterly direction tomorrow. As for
temperatures, lows tonight are progged to range from the lower 60s
along the KS/CO border to upper 60s across south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow are only expected to reach around 80 degrees along
the I-70 corridor to upper 80s along the KS/OK border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Another MCS will be possible Sunday night as an upper level trough
approaches. Locally heavy rain and strong winds will once again be
possible. A few lingering showers will be possible Monday morning
with decreasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Drier air then moves
into the area early to mid part of next week with much cooler
temperatures. One exception to this will be along the KS/CO border
where a few storms may slide into the area during the evening. As
for temperatures, highs look to only reach into the 80s Sunday,
upper 70s to low 80s Monday, Mid 80s Tuesday, then slowly warmer
each day with around 90 degrees by late week. Lows will generally
range form the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Timing and location of strongest MCS activity late tonight is the
main challenge in this forecast. Storms coming out of southeastern
Colorado will impact GCK to LBL terminals around 03Z should they
hold together. Indications are that another MCS will develop in
southwest Nebraska and move/evolve southeast across northwest and
west central KS later in the night. TAF amendments are likely
given such uncertainty in how the convective evolution unfolds.
Prevailing wind is expected to be northeasterly after the storms
move through early tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  84  64  80 /  70  10  50  40
GCK  64  83  62  79 /  70  10  50  50
EHA  64  86  61  80 /  40  10  50  50
LBL  66  86  63  80 /  40  10  60  40
HYS  64  78  62  76 /  90  10  40  30
P28  69  87  67  82 /  70  20  50  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
345 AM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-290845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
345 AM CDT Sat Jul 28 2018 /245 AM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
-----------------

Thunderstorms are expected to move into far western Kansas after 7
pm. Very large hail and damaging winds can be expected with storms
that remain isolated. Thunderstorms are expected to develop into
a large cluster during the late evening and then progress
southeastward into south central Kansas overnight. The main
concern with the storms late in the evening and overnight will be
damaging winds and very heavy rains that could lead to localized
flooding.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Another cluster of thunderstorms is expected Sunday evening.
These storms could contain damaging winds and large hail, with
the best chance of severe storms in extreme western Kansas.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight between
7 pm and 2 am.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

jf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1021 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

KSZ075-076-085-086-290415-
Seward KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
1021 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SEWARD...SOUTHEASTERN
GRANT...NORTHEASTERN STEVENS...SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND SOUTHERN HASKELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1021 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hickok, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sublette, Satanta, Tice, Ryus, Cave and Hickok.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 10100 3751 10127 3761 10123 3760 10065
      3730 10071
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 284DEG 22KT 3754 10119

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1051 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

KSZ074-075-085-290445-
Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-
1051 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MORTON...GRANT...
STANTON...STEVENS AND SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM
CDT...

At 1051 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 16 miles northwest of Manter to 9 miles south
of Big Bow to 10 miles south of Feterita. Movement was east at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses, Hugoton, Johnson City, Moscow, Ryus, Cave, Hickok, Woods and
Big Bow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10141 3739 10156 3764 10204 3773 10204
      3773 10110 3700 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0351Z 288DEG 30KT 3772 10205 3743 10158 3701 10141

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1123 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

KSZ086-290530-
Seward KS-
1123 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SEWARD AND NORTHEASTERN STEVENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1123 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 2 miles west of Cave to 6 miles northwest of
Turpin. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Liberal, Kismet and Hayne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10105 3738 10107 3738 10065 3700 10064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 260DEG 22KT 3737 10118 3695 10095

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1133 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

KSZ077-078-087-088-290530-
Gray KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Ford KS-
1133 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FORD...MEADE...SOUTHERN GRAY AND
CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1133 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles south of Ensign, moving east at 30 mph. Other strong storms
were located along a line from 5 miles east of Copeland to 5 miles
west of Meade State Park.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Meade, Montezuma, Ashland, Bucklin, Spearville, Minneola,
Fowler, Ford, Ensign, Bloom, Sitka, Clark State Lake, Meade State
Park, Kingsdown, Howell, Wright, Missler, Bellefont and Windhorst.

LAT...LON 3717 10055 3771 10060 3789 9959 3703 9957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0433Z 271DEG 27KT 3761 10025

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1136 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

KSZ075-076-290530-
Grant KS-Haskell KS-
1136 PM CDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GRANT AND HASKELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1136 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles north of Hickok to 2 miles northeast of
Cave. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sublette, Satanta, Tice, Ryus and Hickok.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 10066 3739 10066 3739 10122 3773 10132
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 260DEG 25KT 3767 10125 3738 10111

UMSCHEID

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1208 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

KSZ061>063-290615-
Finney KS-Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
1208 AM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...NORTHERN
KEARNY...WESTERN FINNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT/1215 AM MDT/...

At 1208 AM CDT/1108 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles south of Tribune
to 4 miles east of Garden City. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Lakin, Holcomb, Deerfield, Pierceville, Friend and
Plymell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10100 3824 10069 3774 10066 3812 10186
      3826 10191
TIME...MOT...LOC 0508Z 313DEG 34KT 3828 10180 3800 10078

UMSCHEID