Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
640 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

A moist and cooler airmass was over the central High Plains today.
This is resulting in temperatures around 80 or the lower 80s early
this afternoon. In spite of the cooler boundary layer temperatures,
the atmosphere was becoming moderately unstable especially along
the KS/CO border and over eastern Colorado. Deep layer wind shear
was also around 40-45 knots out along the border. A few showers
and thunderstorms were developing in this airmass this afternoon.

Expect the showers and thunderstorms to continue through the late
afternoon hours before waning somewhat this evening. A weak upper
level disturbance was moving out of Wyoming this afternoon and the
NAM and GFS show this moving southeast into western Kansas
tonight. This in combination with the right entrance region of an
upper level jet, will help with scattered thunderstorm development
this afternoon that lingers into the nighttime hours. The various
CAM solutions differ in how much and where showers and thunderstorms
will develop and move tonight. Think that the best chances will
be over the western half of the forecast area where the greatest
instability and shear are in place. Not overly excited about
severe weather late this afternoon and evening but a few storms
could produce marginally severe hail and wind gusts.

During the day Friday, another shortwave disturbance will be approaching
the central High Plains from Wyoming. Ahead of this wave, warmer and
increasingly moist air will return as surface pressures lower in the
lee of the Rockies. Thunderstorms will be developing along the eastern
slopes and western High Plains Friday afternoon. High temperatures are
expected to climb back into the mid 80s to around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

The upper level northwest flow pattern continues through the
weekend. A mid level baroclinic zone will extend from western
Wyoming into western and central Kansas which will help focus
thunderstorm development out of the eastern slopes into western
Kansas. Given a continued warm moist low level flow into the High
Plains, the atmosphere will become moderately to strongly unstable,
resulting in continued chances for rounds of severe weather. By
Sunday, a fairly strong upper level shortwave trough will be
diving south out of Canada into the northern Plains. Sunday
evening may be the last of the rounds of thunderstorms as drier
and more stable air works back into the central Plains. Cooler
temperatures should remain through the weekend. Highs early next
week may be even cooler than the blended guidance suggests.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

The thunderstorm forecast for this TAF period, especially during
the late night hours, is a little more uncertain than last night
(which was more obvious). We will be monitoring convective trends
coming out of far northwest KS this evening. Some of the
convective allowing models bring a mesoscale convective system all
the way across far west central and southwest KS through the
overnight hours, affecting GCK and LBL terminals in particular.
This is not a bad forecast given the northwest flow setup and good
low level moisture in place across far western Kansas. We will
carry a few hours of VCTS at GCK and LBL but keep it out of DDC
and HYS. These TAFs will likely be amended through the evening to
improve the timing forecast and/or remove/add VCTS to terminals as
needed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Thunderstorm complexes are expected to develop and move out across
western Kansas nearly every night through the weekend. This will
bring rounds of significant rainfall to the area. With soils becoming
wetter from recent rains, the threat for flash flooding will also
be ramping up. There is some uncertainty as to the exact placement
of the heaviest rain but, at least for Friday night, it appears
that the area east of a Scott City-Dodge City- Coldwater line
could receive the heaviest rain. Additional rounds of thunderstorms
with heavy rain will be very possible through the rest of the weekend
which would also continue to exacerbate any flooding issues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  86  65  88 /  30  20  60  10
GCK  62  86  64  88 /  40  20  60  10
EHA  65  88  64  91 /  50  20  30  10
LBL  67  87  65  91 /  30  20  40  10
HYS  63  85  64  83 /  20  20  60  30
P28  64  89  68  89 /  10  10  60  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Umscheid
HYDROLOGY...Gerard

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
428 AM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-270930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
428 AM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018 /328 AM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

There is a small chance of thunderstorms tonight, especially
across far western Kansas. These storms will probably not be
severe.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There is a good chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and
Friday night. These storms may be severe with hail quarter size or
larger and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Locally heavy rains are
expected. There are chances for thunderstorms each day Saturday
through Monday. If is too early to tell if these will be severe.
Locally heavy rains are possible.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

jf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
702 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2018

KSZ043-270045-
Scott KS-
702 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

At 702 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles southeast of Modoc, moving south at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Shallow Water and Modoc.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3851 10090 3828 10087 3828 10112 3852 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 003DEG 12KT 3845 10103

JJOHNSON

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