Severe Thunderstorm Warning 339, NWS Dodge City, KS

048 
WWUS53 KDDC 272155
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
455 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

KSC051-272230-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0339.000000T0000Z-180727T2230Z/
Ellis KS-
455 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTY...

At 455 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located very near Antonino,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Victoria, Catherine, Schoenchen, Yocemento, Pfeifer, Toulon,
Munjor and Antonino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9913 3870 9919 3873 9950 3886 9950
      3896 9940 3896 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 295DEG 21KT 3876 9939 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

UMSCHEID

491 
WWUS53 KDDC 272210
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
510 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

KSC051-272220-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0339.000000T0000Z-180727T2230Z/
Ellis KS-
510 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail and
gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3870 9913 3870 9919 3873 9950 3886 9950
      3896 9940 3896 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 292DEG 12KT 3874 9933 

$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
259 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

...Updated Hydro...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Likely MCS/squall line event with damaging winds up to 80 mph
especially for areas west of highway 283 and localized flash
flooding as thunderstorms could produce heavy rains of 2+ in/hr.

Thunderstorm convection has initiated this morning across
northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska in association with a
shortwave trough going through northern Colorado and Wyoming. The
wave will continue to move south and east into western Kansas by
this evening. A stalled out frontal boundary along the Kansas-
Colorado border and a trough in eastern Colorado will be the focus
of more thunderstorm initiation late this afternoon and this
evening. The environment ahead of the storms especially west of
highway 283 will have CAPE values in the 2500 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms in northwest Kansas will initially be in supercell
form and then quickly turn linear as they dive into southwest
Kansas. Hence the wind threat will be greatest with the hail
threat not as great.

Most of the activity should be out of the area shortly after
midnight and with subsidence behind the MCS we should see
clearing skies and slightly cooler temperatures for our Saturday.
It remains to be seen if the atmosphere will recover enough in
the afternoon for another forecast MCS event Saturday night into
Sunday morning in western Kansas which will be discussed more in
detail in the long term.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

More MCS events on the horizon for both Saturday and Sunday
nights as the upper level pattern stays out of the northwest with
shortwaves coming in from northern Colorado into western Kansas.
Severe threat at this point should stay mainly in the strong wind
range...with the flooding threat starting to increase if the
storms continue to produce heavy rains over the same areas.

Saturday night NAM, GFS, and Euro are all in pretty good agreement
a large swath of rain from thunderstorms will move in from
northwest Kansas mainly around midnight into the early morning. If
the atmosphere can recover during the day Saturday from Friday's
event...the possibility of damaging winds could exist again for
the area as the storms move through. NAM has modest CAPE amounts
of 1500-2000 Saturday evening so it won't be a widespread severe
event at this point.

Sunday's forecast is a rinse and repeat. Clearing skies from
subsidence behind the MCS should allow the atmosphere to recover
in the afternoon and another shortwave moves in from eastern
Colorado by the evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
should move through western Kansas between sunset and midnight
with strong winds and heavy rains possible again.

Early next week sets the stage for some unseasonably cool
temperatures for July. A large trough over the central and
northern plains combining with a wet ground, cloud cover, 850 mb
temps in the 15-18 (C) range and surface winds out of the north
could lead high temps on Monday to struggle to get to 80. The cool
weather pattern will continue into Tuesday as the trough slowly
moves eastward.

Temps should slowly warm through the mid-week, the upper level
pattern will continue mainly with northwest flow so with any
shortwaves moving in...more opportunities for rain could be in
the forecast from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

A likely squall line of storms will be affecting western Kansas
this evening with the primary threat for the airports being
damaging winds and lowered visibilities from heavy rain. The
forecast TEMPOs for the timing of the severe storms are in from
00Z-02Z for HYS, 01-03Z for GCK and DDC, and 02Z-04Z for LBL. It's
not out of the question as the outflow boundary and storms go
through the airports that thunderstorm wind gusts could be in the
50-60 kt range. Most of the activity should be exiting the region
by 06Z with cloud ceilings slowly increasing after 12Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Localized heavy rains from the forecast MCS event tonight along
with more potential for heavy rains Saturday and Sunday nights
going over saturated grounds have led to a slight risk of flash
flooding for much of southwest Kansas. Any thunderstorms will
have the capability of producing heavy rain in the order of up to
2+ in/hr rainfall rates and this could lead to localized flash
flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  85  65  83 / 100  10  50  30
GCK  61  83  64  82 /  80  10  50  20
EHA  63  86  63  87 /  90  10  30  10
LBL  64  86  66  86 /  80  10  40  20
HYS  63  83  64  78 /  80  10  50  30
P28  69  88  69  84 /  60  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro
HYDROLOGY...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-282000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 /157 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018/

The potential is becoming more likely for thunderstorms to
produce damaging straight line winds across southwest Kansas
mainly for areas west of highway 183 after 7 pm this evening.

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms will move into western Kansas tonight with the
potential for straight line winds up to 80 mph. Rainfall rates
from these storms could be in the 2+ inch per hour range which
could lead to some localized flash flooding.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms will be possible again Saturday and Sunday nights
with localized flash flooding and damaging winds possible.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed after 7 pm tonight for areas
mainly west of highway 183.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
353 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

KSZ031-272130-
Ellis KS-
353 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 353 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ellis, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Ellis, Victoria, Walker, Catherine, Emmeram, Yocemento and
Toulon.

LAT...LON 3885 9904 3881 9959 3909 9959 3914 9936
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 258DEG 19KT 3892 9952

JJOHNSON