Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Dodge City, KS

224 
WWUS53 KDDC 280301
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1001 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

KSC055-067-069-075-081-093-187-280330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0348.000000T0000Z-180728T0330Z/
Hamilton KS-Kearny KS-Finney KS-Grant KS-Stanton KS-Gray KS-
Haskell KS-
1001 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM
CDT/930 PM MDT/ FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON...KEARNY...WESTERN
FINNEY...GRANT...NORTHEASTERN STANTON...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND
NORTHERN HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 1001 PM CDT/901 PM MDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along a
line extending from 6 miles north of Pierceville to 11 miles south of
Lakin to 7 miles northeast of Johnson City, moving southeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Ulysses, Lakin, Cimarron, Holcomb, Deerfield,
Pierceville, Ingalls, Kendall, Charleston, Ryus, Big Bow, Plymell and
Hickok.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 10159 3818 10107 3815 10066 3780 10035
      3756 10087 3739 10141 3776 10181
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 314DEG 38KT 3797 10072 3777 10128 3766 10167 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JJOHNSON

091 
WWUS53 KDDC 280314
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1014 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

KSC075-280324-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0348.000000T0000Z-180728T0330Z/
Hamilton KS-
1014 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3786 10140 3810 10097 3815 10066 3780 10035
      3756 10087 3739 10141 3763 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 314DEG 38KT 3788 10060 3768 10116 3744 10140 

$$

KSC055-067-069-081-093-187-280330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0348.000000T0000Z-180728T0330Z/
Kearny KS-Finney KS-Grant KS-Stanton KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
1014 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEARNY...WESTERN FINNEY...GRANT...EAST CENTRAL
STANTON...NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHERN HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 1014 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles northwest of Charleston to 8 miles northeast
of Hickok to 9 miles south of Ulysses, moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Ulysses, Lakin, Cimarron, Holcomb, Deerfield,
Pierceville, Ingalls, Charleston, Ryus, Big Bow, Plymell and Hickok.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 10140 3810 10097 3815 10066 3780 10035
      3756 10087 3739 10141 3763 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 314DEG 38KT 3788 10060 3768 10116 3744 10140 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

JJOHNSON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Likely MCS/squall line event with damaging winds up to 80 mph
especially for areas west of highway 283 and localized flash
flooding as thunderstorms could produce heavy rains of 2+ in/hr.

Thunderstorm convection has initiated this morning across
northeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska in association with a
shortwave trough going through northern Colorado and Wyoming. The
wave will continue to move south and east into western Kansas by
this evening. A stalled out frontal boundary along the Kansas-
Colorado border and a trough in eastern Colorado will be the focus
of more thunderstorm initiation late this afternoon and this
evening. The environment ahead of the storms especially west of
highway 283 will have CAPE values in the 2500 J/kg range.
Thunderstorms in northwest Kansas will initially be in supercell
form and then quickly turn linear as they dive into southwest
Kansas. Hence the wind threat will be greatest with the hail
threat not as great.

Most of the activity should be out of the area shortly after
midnight and with subsidence behind the MCS we should see
clearing skies and slightly cooler temperatures for our Saturday.
It remains to be seen if the atmosphere will recover enough in
the afternoon for another forecast MCS event Saturday night into
Sunday morning in western Kansas which will be discussed more in
detail in the long term.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

More MCS events on the horizon for both Saturday and Sunday
nights as the upper level pattern stays out of the northwest with
shortwaves coming in from northern Colorado into western Kansas.
Severe threat at this point should stay mainly in the strong wind
range...with the flooding threat starting to increase if the
storms continue to produce heavy rains over the same areas.

Saturday night NAM, GFS, and Euro are all in pretty good agreement
a large swath of rain from thunderstorms will move in from
northwest Kansas mainly around midnight into the early morning. If
the atmosphere can recover during the day Saturday from Friday's
event...the possibility of damaging winds could exist again for
the area as the storms move through. NAM has modest CAPE amounts
of 1500-2000 Saturday evening so it won't be a widespread severe
event at this point.

Sunday's forecast is a rinse and repeat. Clearing skies from
subsidence behind the MCS should allow the atmosphere to recover
in the afternoon and another shortwave moves in from eastern
Colorado by the evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
should move through western Kansas between sunset and midnight
with strong winds and heavy rains possible again.

Early next week sets the stage for some unseasonably cool
temperatures for July. A large trough over the central and
northern plains combining with a wet ground, cloud cover, 850 mb
temps in the 15-18 (C) range and surface winds out of the north
could lead high temps on Monday to struggle to get to 80. The cool
weather pattern will continue into Tuesday as the trough slowly
moves eastward.

Temps should slowly warm through the mid-week, the upper level
pattern will continue mainly with northwest flow so with any
shortwaves moving in...more opportunities for rain could be in
the forecast from Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Strong to severe thunderstorms will spread southeastward across
western Kansas through this evening and into early Saturday
morning, potentially affecting all TAF sites with periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through much of the period. South to southeasterly winds 10 to
20kt will persist across southwest and central Kansas through
early Saturday as a lee side trough of low pressure remains
anchored across eastern Colorado while a surface high edges
slowly eastward across the Upper Midwest.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Localized heavy rains from the forecast MCS event tonight along
with more potential for heavy rains Saturday and Sunday nights
going over saturated grounds have led to a slight risk of flash
flooding for much of southwest Kansas. Any thunderstorms will
have the capability of producing heavy rain in the order of up to
2+ in/hr rainfall rates and this could lead to localized flash
flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  85  65  83 / 100  10  50  30
GCK  61  83  64  82 /  80  10  50  20
EHA  63  86  63  87 /  90  10  30  10
LBL  64  86  66  86 /  80  10  40  20
HYS  63  83  64  78 /  80  10  50  30
P28  69  88  69  84 /  60  10  50  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...JJohnson
HYDROLOGY...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-282000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
257 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018 /157 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018/

The potential is becoming more likely for thunderstorms to
produce damaging straight line winds across southwest Kansas
mainly for areas west of highway 183 after 7 pm this evening.

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Thunderstorms will move into western Kansas tonight with the
potential for straight line winds up to 80 mph. Rainfall rates
from these storms could be in the 2+ inch per hour range which
could lead to some localized flash flooding.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Thunderstorms will be possible again Saturday and Sunday nights
with localized flash flooding and damaging winds possible.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed after 7 pm tonight for areas
mainly west of highway 183.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
841 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GRAY                    38.16N 99.64W
07/27/2018                   HODGEMAN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTS OF WATER OVER K-156.

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
901 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SCHOENCHEN              38.71N 99.35W
07/27/2018  M1.14 INCH       ELLIS              KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION SCNK1, SCHOENCHEN.

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
901 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

KSZ074-084-280245-
Stanton KS-Morton KS-
901 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MORTON AND STANTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 901 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles east of The Saunders Elevator, moving east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Manter, Richfield and The Saunders Elevator.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3736 10204 3755 10204 3772 10156 3716 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 269DEG 14KT 3746 10195

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
917 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             6 NE FORD               37.69N 99.68W
07/27/2018  E1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

LEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
924 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BUCKNER CREEK AT HANSTO 38.12N 99.72W
07/27/2018  M1.00 INCH       HODGEMAN           KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION HSNK1, BUCKNER CREEK
            AT HANSTON.

&&

GT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
938 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0928 PM     TSTM WND GST     SYRACUSE                38.00N 101.74W
07/27/2018  M76 MPH          HAMILTON           KS   AWOS

            AT THE SYRACUSE AIRPORT.

&&

GT