Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Dodge City, KS

428 
WWUS53 KDDC 022215
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSC007-151-022245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180502T2245Z/
Barber KS-Pratt KS-
515 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN BARBER AND SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES...

At 515 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southwest
of Kingman, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Medicine Lodge and Sharon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3710 9875 3755 9847 3757 9846 3739 9846
      3738 9835 3712 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 251DEG 49KT 3752 9820 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HOVORKA

829 
WWUS53 KDDC 022231
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
531 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSC151-022241-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180502T2245Z/
Pratt KS-
531 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3713 9855 3739 9846 3738 9835 3712 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 251DEG 49KT 3759 9794 

$$

KSC007-022245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180502T2245Z/
Barber KS-
531 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BARBER COUNTY...

At 531 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles west of
Cheney, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Sharon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 9855 3739 9846 3738 9835 3712 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 251DEG 49KT 3759 9794 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HOVORKA

785 
WWUS53 KDDC 022236
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
536 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSC007-022245-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180502T2245Z/
Barber KS-
536 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BARBER COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3713 9855 3739 9846 3738 9835 3712 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 251DEG 49KT 3761 9787 

$$

HOVORKA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

...Updated short term and long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Several models this afternoon continue to indicate that the
surface boundary located near the Oklahoma border at 19z in
southwest Kansas will lift northward late today as an upper level
wave lifts northeast across the Central Plains. Given the large
area of convection that was currently occurring along this
boundary this may be a little over down but do see on radar that
the precipitation was beginning to taper off slowly from west to
east. At this time am favoring not being as aggressive with the
northward moving frontal boundary today at this time and as a
result have kept the bulk of expected convection late today and
early tonight near and south of a Rush Center to Liberal line. In
this area late today hail in excess of two inches likely with the
potential existing from base balls or even a little larger being
possible from the stronger storms. Damaging wind gusts in excess
of 65 mph also look possible along with an a few tornadoes. Given
the linear development of these storms the tornado threat at this
time appears low but can not completely rule one out, especially
near the Oklahoma border and in south central Kansas. We will also
be monitoring flooding potential given that these storms may be
moving over the same areas for a few hours late today.

Late tonight and Thursday an upper low that was located over the
four corners area at 12z Wednesday will weaken as it crosses
Rockies and moves out into the Western High Plains. As this upper
trough crosses the Central Plains Thursday the surface cold front
will drop south into the southern Plains during the day on
Thursday. This not only will bring an end to our precipitation
chances for western Kansas but also usher in some slightly cooler,
more seasonal air for late week.

As the cooler air spreads across western Kansas on Thursday the
highs across west central and north central Kansas may struggle to
climb much higher than the mid to upper 70s. Further southeast
highs will once again climb back into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Temperatures on Friday will be more seasonal as high pressure
builds into western Kansas. Highs Friday afternoon in the 70s look
likely for all of western Kansas Friday afternoon.

Over the weekend into early next week a gradual warming trend
will begin as an upper level ridge axis crosses the Central
Rockies. As this ridge axis moves east a more westerly flow will
develop across the Rockies and improve downslope flow across
eastern Colorado and western Kansas.

Early next week an upper level trough will exit the eastern
Pacific and cross the western United States. Some differences in
track and timing exists between the models in the later period so
will stay close to a guidance at this time for any chance of
precipitation next week, as small as it may be.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

VFR conditions and southerly winds can be expected this afternoon
to all TAF sites with the possible exception of the HAYS area as
a surface boundary/warm front lift north across western Kansas.
Strong to severe thunderstorms can also be expected along and
east/of this surface boundary through late day as an upper level
wave passes. At this time the area most favorable for these severe
storms will be east of Liberal and near/south of Dodge City so
will be inserting convection for a few hours early this afternoon
at Dodge while leaving precipitation out of the remainder of the
TAF sites. Also insert VCSH in the Garden City area to cover the
convection developing further north of the cold front. As our
winds become southerly today they will average 10 to 15 knots
through the remainder of the day. After sunset several models once
again bring IFR stratus back to areas of western Kansas
overnight, mainly after midnight. There could even be a few
isolated showers or thunderstorms before this stratus moves in,
mainly between 00z Thurs and 06z Thurs in Liberal and Dodge City
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  55  80  46 /  70  20  10   0
GCK  83  51  75  42 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  82  50  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  85  52  78  45 /  30  10   0   0
HYS  78  53  78  46 /  10  10  20  10
P28  85  63  87  51 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ084-085.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
429 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-030930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
429 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018 /329 AM MDT Wed May 2 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop early to
mid afternoon across portions of southwest Kansas, then spreading
northeast into central Kansas through the evening. Storms will be
capable of producing up to tennis ball size hail and damaging
winds in excess of 60 mph. Such conditions exist that tornadoes
are also a possibility with the strongest storms.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for extreme southwest Kansas this
afternoon through early evening. See the fire weather message for
further details. Otherwise, gusty south winds and low relative
humidity will produce elevated fire conditions across the
remaining portions of southwest Kansas into central and south
central Kansas this afternoon. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Elevated risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Extreme risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Gusty west-northwest winds and low relative humidity will create
elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. Outdoor burning
is discouraged.

Elevated fire weather conditions return over the weekend into
early next week as gusty southerly winds and low relative humidity
return to southwest and central Kansas.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Friday
  No hazards.

* Saturday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed early this afternoon through this
evening generally east of a WaKeeney to Liberal line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
351 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     TSTM WND GST     PRESTON                 37.76N 98.56W
05/02/2018  E60 MPH          PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
356 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     HAIL             2 E DILLWYN             37.97N 98.84W
05/02/2018  E1.00 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
402 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW PRESTON           37.74N 98.61W
05/02/2018  E70 MPH          PRATT              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
408 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSZ080-081-089-090-022215-
Pratt KS-Barber KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-
408 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA...BARBER...
COMANCHE AND SOUTHERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 407 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles north of Wilmore to 9 miles southeast
of Buttermilk. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Medicine Lodge, Kiowa, Hardtner, Sharon, Sawyer, Hazelton, Isabel,
Coats, Lake City, Sun City, Wilmore, Aetna, Croft, Cairo, Belvidere
and Buttermilk.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9952 3746 9915 3769 9846 3739 9846
      3738 9835 3700 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 251DEG 35KT 3741 9917 3698 9924

HOVORKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
409 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IUKA                    37.73N 98.73W
05/02/2018                   PRATT              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED ROOFS BLOWN OFF TWO
            BUILDINGS IN IUKA.

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
418 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       12 SE MEADE             37.17N 100.17W
05/02/2018  M1.10 INCH       MEADE              KS   PUBLIC

&&

RB