Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Dodge City, KS

066 
WWUS53 KDDC 022051
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
351 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSC185-022115-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180502T2115Z/
Stafford KS-
351 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN STAFFORD COUNTY...

At 351 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest 
of Raymond, or 9 miles southeast of Ellinwood, moving northeast at 
45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Stafford and Hudson. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3783 9882 3804 9872 3826 9868 3826 9847
      3783 9863
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 221DEG 67KT 3824 9850 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TATRO

639 
WWUS53 KDDC 022059
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
359 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

KSC185-022109-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-180502T2115Z/
Stafford KS-
359 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3783 9882 3804 9872 3826 9868 3826 9847
      3783 9863
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 230DEG 47KT 3831 9839 

$$

TATRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
210 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

...Updated short term and long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Several models this afternoon continue to indicate that the
surface boundary located near the Oklahoma border at 19z in
southwest Kansas will lift northward late today as an upper level
wave lifts northeast across the Central Plains. Given the large
area of convection that was currently occurring along this
boundary this may be a little over down but do see on radar that
the precipitation was beginning to taper off slowly from west to
east. At this time am favoring not being as aggressive with the
northward moving frontal boundary today at this time and as a
result have kept the bulk of expected convection late today and
early tonight near and south of a Rush Center to Liberal line. In
this area late today hail in excess of two inches likely with the
potential existing from base balls or even a little larger being
possible from the stronger storms. Damaging wind gusts in excess
of 65 mph also look possible along with an a few tornadoes. Given
the linear development of these storms the tornado threat at this
time appears low but can not completely rule one out, especially
near the Oklahoma border and in south central Kansas. We will also
be monitoring flooding potential given that these storms may be
moving over the same areas for a few hours late today.

Late tonight and Thursday an upper low that was located over the
four corners area at 12z Wednesday will weaken as it crosses
Rockies and moves out into the Western High Plains. As this upper
trough crosses the Central Plains Thursday the surface cold front
will drop south into the southern Plains during the day on
Thursday. This not only will bring an end to our precipitation
chances for western Kansas but also usher in some slightly cooler,
more seasonal air for late week.

As the cooler air spreads across western Kansas on Thursday the
highs across west central and north central Kansas may struggle to
climb much higher than the mid to upper 70s. Further southeast
highs will once again climb back into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

Temperatures on Friday will be more seasonal as high pressure
builds into western Kansas. Highs Friday afternoon in the 70s look
likely for all of western Kansas Friday afternoon.

Over the weekend into early next week a gradual warming trend
will begin as an upper level ridge axis crosses the Central
Rockies. As this ridge axis moves east a more westerly flow will
develop across the Rockies and improve downslope flow across
eastern Colorado and western Kansas.

Early next week an upper level trough will exit the eastern
Pacific and cross the western United States. Some differences in
track and timing exists between the models in the later period so
will stay close to a guidance at this time for any chance of
precipitation next week, as small as it may be.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed May 2 2018

VFR conditions and southerly winds can be expected this afternoon
to all TAF sites with the possible exception of the HAYS area as
a surface boundary/warm front lift north across western Kansas.
Strong to severe thunderstorms can also be expected along and
east/of this surface boundary through late day as an upper level
wave passes. At this time the area most favorable for these severe
storms will be east of Liberal and near/south of Dodge City so
will be inserting convection for a few hours early this afternoon
at Dodge while leaving precipitation out of the remainder of the
TAF sites. Also insert VCSH in the Garden City area to cover the
convection developing further north of the cold front. As our
winds become southerly today they will average 10 to 15 knots
through the remainder of the day. After sunset several models once
again bring IFR stratus back to areas of western Kansas
overnight, mainly after midnight. There could even be a few
isolated showers or thunderstorms before this stratus moves in,
mainly between 00z Thurs and 06z Thurs in Liberal and Dodge City
areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  55  80  46 /  70  20  10   0
GCK  83  51  75  42 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  82  50  75  44 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  85  52  78  45 /  30  10   0   0
HYS  78  53  78  46 /  10  10  20  10
P28  85  63  87  51 /  70  50  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ084-085.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
429 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-030930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
429 AM CDT Wed May 2 2018 /329 AM MDT Wed May 2 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop early to
mid afternoon across portions of southwest Kansas, then spreading
northeast into central Kansas through the evening. Storms will be
capable of producing up to tennis ball size hail and damaging
winds in excess of 60 mph. Such conditions exist that tornadoes
are also a possibility with the strongest storms.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for extreme southwest Kansas this
afternoon through early evening. See the fire weather message for
further details. Otherwise, gusty south winds and low relative
humidity will produce elevated fire conditions across the
remaining portions of southwest Kansas into central and south
central Kansas this afternoon. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Elevated risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Extreme risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Gusty west-northwest winds and low relative humidity will create
elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. Outdoor burning
is discouraged.

Elevated fire weather conditions return over the weekend into
early next week as gusty southerly winds and low relative humidity
return to southwest and central Kansas.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Friday
  No hazards.

* Saturday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed early this afternoon through this
evening generally east of a WaKeeney to Liberal line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FLOOD            2 SW GREENSBURG         37.59N 99.32W
05/02/2018                   KIOWA              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING IN FIELDS AND OVER ROADS ON K ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE DILLWYN           38.03N 98.85W
05/02/2018  E60 MPH          STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
316 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW CULLISON           37.65N 98.94W
05/02/2018  E90 MPH          PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
317 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             BYERS                   37.79N 98.87W
05/02/2018  E1.00 INCH       PRATT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             1 W GREENSBURG          37.61N 99.31W
05/02/2018  E1.00 INCH       KIOWA              KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AROUND 6 INCHES OF HAIL ON THE GROUND. HAIL
            FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             1 W CULLISON            37.63N 98.92W
05/02/2018  E1.00 INCH       PRATT              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&