Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Dodge City, KS

July 19, 20184 counties in Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2018, 8:57 PM CDT for 4 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2018, 8:57 PM CDT (01:57 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2018, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 2.75 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Finney County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Meade County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 2.0 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3419 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -142 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2071 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 135 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 207 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

826 
WUUS53 KDDC 200157
SVRDDC
KSC055-069-081-119-200245-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0304.180720T0157Z-180720T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
857 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  South central Finney County in southwestern Kansas...
  Northwestern Meade County in southwestern Kansas...
  Southwestern Gray County in southwestern Kansas...
  Haskell County in southwestern Kansas...

* Until 945 PM CDT.

* At 856 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
  Pierceville, moving south at 15 mph.

  This is a very dangerous storm.

  HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. 
           Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, 
           siding, and vehicles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sublette, Satanta, Copeland, Charleston, Tice and Plymell. 

This warning replaces and expands the previous warnings issued.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Wind damage with this storm will occur before any rain or lightning.
Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover. SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3740 10109 3742 10109 3789 10088 3787 10052
      3739 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 004DEG 12KT 3780 10068 

HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

RBURG

3 follow-up statements

367 
WWUS53 KDDC 200208
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
908 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC055-069-081-119-200245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-180720T0245Z/
Finney KS-Meade KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
908 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FINNEY...NORTHWESTERN MEADE...SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND
HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 908 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Pierceville, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sublette, Satanta, Copeland, Charleston, Tice and Plymell. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3740 10109 3742 10109 3789 10088 3787 10052
      3739 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 004DEG 12KT 3776 10068 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RBURG

330 
WWUS53 KDDC 200220
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
920 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC055-200229-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-180720T0245Z/
Finney KS-
920 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FINNEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened and 
moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been 
cancelled.

LAT...LON 3740 10109 3742 10109 3773 10095 3773 10053
      3739 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 004DEG 12KT 3772 10068 

$$

KSC069-081-119-200245-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-180720T0245Z/
Meade KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
920 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MEADE...SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 919 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles south of
Pierceville, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sublette, Satanta, Copeland and Tice. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3740 10109 3742 10109 3773 10095 3773 10053
      3739 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 004DEG 12KT 3772 10068 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RBURG

744 
WWUS53 KDDC 200236
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
936 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC069-081-119-200246-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0304.000000T0000Z-180720T0245Z/
Meade KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
936 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEADE...
SOUTHWESTERN GRAY AND HASKELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3740 10109 3742 10109 3773 10095 3773 10053
      3739 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 004DEG 12KT 3767 10068 

$$

RBURG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 7:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 7:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
705 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Scattered storms and heat will continue to be the main forecast
points in the short term. A surface low located in southeast
Colorado along with a weak frontal boundary in southwest Kansas
will be the focus for the potential development of storms late
this afternoon into tonight. HRRR and RAP have been fairly
consistent showing isolated to widely scattered storms developing
after 4pm and moving east to southeast through the forecast area
before dying off shortly after sunset. Main risk with these storms
will be strong downburst winds given the environment of around
100 degree highs and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. CAPE
values are forecast to be ~3000 J/kg ahead of the thunderstorm
development. It looks like better potential for storm development
tonight given the lack of widespread morning convection...however
a few isolated thunderstorms from Syracuse to Garden City that
developed this morning may provide a more stable airmass for
thunderstorm development to overcome.

Friday could bring with it similar conditions with more heat
through the forecast area as highs in the lower 100s with heat
index values around 105 for the counties along the Oklahoma border
looking like a good bet. The surface low in eastern Colorado will
continue to have a weak frontal boundary in southwest Kansas and
with northwest flow another 500-700 mb shortwave will move in late
afternoon. Depending on where the boundary sets up more isolated
to widely scattered late afternoon storms could develop. A lot
will depend on if the CAP can be broken ahead of the boundary so
the chance nothing develops is also in the cards.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

More chances of spotty storms will continue in the long term as
the upper level pattern will continue to stay mainly in northwest
flow between an upper level low in the southeast and a ridge in
the desert southwest.

A 500-700 mb shortwave is forecast to come into western Kansas
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and combining with upslope
flow we could once again see isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms develop.

Sunday with the ridge moving a little more eastward at this point
this should keep us dry through most of the day.

Monday the long term models have the hints of a MCS developing in
eastern Colorado with a shortwave propagating along the ridge and
moving into western Kansas in the overnight.

Tuesday through Thursday continue with the upper level flow in a
northwest pattern with periodic shortwaves rotating around the
ridge in the Rockies providing more chances of isolated to widely
scattered storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Aside from isolated evening t-storms, VFR conditions will presist.
With a light pressure gradient, winds will be generally light and
less than 10 kts except in vicinity of t-storms through 02z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68 101  70  93 /  20   0  20  10
GCK  68 102  69  94 /  20  10  20  10
EHA  70 104  70  98 /  20  20  20   0
LBL  71 106  71  97 /  20  20  20   0
HYS  70  96  68  91 /  10   0  10   0
P28  73 102  73  94 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 3:34 AM CDT, 17 hours 23 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
334 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
334 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 /234 AM MDT Thu Jul 19 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A heat advisory is in effect this afternoon across portions of
south central Kansas. See the latest Urgent weather message for
more information.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

A chance of storms will be possible Friday and again early next
week. As of now, these storms do not look to be severe.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Significant risk

* Saturday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:12 PM CDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
812 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             9 NW TICE               37.62N 100.83W
07/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JF

Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:32 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
832 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GARDEN CITY REGIONAL AI 37.93N 100.72W
07/19/2018  M71 MPH          FINNEY             KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION GCK, GARDEN CITY REGIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

RML

Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:33 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
833 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND GST     GARDEN CITY REGIONAL AI 37.93N 100.72W
07/19/2018  M71 MPH          FINNEY             KS   ASOS

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND GST REPORT
            FROM GARDEN CITY REGIONAL AIRPORT. ASOS
            STATION GCK, GARDEN CITY REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

RML

Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:39 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
839 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             3 NE PIERCEVILLE        37.92N 100.65W
07/19/2018  E1.75 INCH       GRAY               KS   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE.

&&

RML

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 8:40 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
840 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSZ063-077-200245-
Gray KS-Finney KS-
840 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FINNEY AND
NORTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 840 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Kalvesta, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kalvesta.

LAT...LON 3799 10045 3799 10068 3826 10055 3824 10025
      3801 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 229DEG 14KT 3804 10047

RBURG

Local storm report, Jul 19, 8:41 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
841 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             GARDEN CITY             37.98N 100.86W
07/19/2018  E0.25 INCH       FINNEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS PEA SIZE.

&&

RML

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 7:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Grant, Kearny	43 min
Jul 19, 7:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Clark, Ford, Kiowa	13 min
Jul 19, 7:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Gray, Haskell, Meade, Seward	48 min
Jul 19, 7:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny	21 min
Jul 19, 7:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Gray	38 min
Jul 19, 8:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Hodgeman	45 min
Jul 19, 8:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Gray, Haskell	49 min
Jul 19, 8:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Haskell	57 min
Jul 19, 8:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Finney	65 min
Jul 19, 8:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Gray, Hodgeman	46 min
Jul 19, 9:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ford, Hodgeman	43 min
Jul 19, 10:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Edwards, Hodgeman, Pawnee	26 min
Jul 19, 10:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Kiowa	59 min
Jul 19, 11:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Barber, Comanche, Kiowa, Pratt	45 min
Jul 20, 4:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Grant, Haskell, Meade, Morton, Seward, Stanton and 1 more	55 min
Jul 20, 5:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Grant, Morton, Stanton, Stevens	48 min
Jul 20, 5:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Grant, Haskell, Meade, Morton, Seward, Stanton and 1 more	74 min
Jul 20, 6:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Clark, Comanche, Kiowa	68 min
Jul 20, 6:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Hamilton, Kearny	63 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.