Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Dodge City, KS

July 19, 20184 counties in Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2018, 7:27 PM CDT for 4 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 48 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2018, 7:27 PM CDT (00:27 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2018, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Meade County, KS, Seward County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 19, 7:41 PM CDT	HAIL 1.75	11 N Sublette, KS	FACEBOOK POST GOLF BALL SIZE NORTH OF SUBLETTE.
Jul 19, 8:00 PM CDT	HAIL 1	9 Nw Tice, KS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 14 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3419 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -142 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2071 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 135 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 207 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

486 
WUUS53 KDDC 200027
SVRDDC
KSC069-081-119-175-200115-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0299.180720T0027Z-180720T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
727 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Seward County in southwestern Kansas...
  Northwestern Meade County in southwestern Kansas...
  Southwestern Gray County in southwestern Kansas...
  Eastern Haskell County in southwestern Kansas...

* Until 815 PM CDT.

* At 727 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles northwest
  of Tice, moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sublette, Copeland and Tice. 

This warning replaces and expands the previous warning issued.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 10080 3763 10098 3771 10068 3742 10041
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 313DEG 18KT 3760 10081 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RBURG

2 follow-up statements

559 
WWUS53 KDDC 200048
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
748 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC069-119-175-200058-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-180720T0115Z/
Seward KS-Meade KS-Gray KS-
748 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SEWARD...
NORTHWESTERN MEADE AND SOUTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3763 10098 3771 10068 3748 10066 3741 10088
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 304DEG 8KT 3758 10082 

$$

KSC081-200115-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-180720T0115Z/
Haskell KS-
748 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN HASKELL COUNTY...

At 748 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles northwest of
Tice, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Sublette and Tice. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 10098 3771 10068 3748 10066 3741 10088
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 304DEG 8KT 3758 10082 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

RBURG

114 
WWUS53 KDDC 200106
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
806 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSC081-200116-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0299.000000T0000Z-180720T0115Z/
Haskell KS-
806 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN HASKELL COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3763 10098 3771 10068 3748 10066 3741 10088
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 313DEG 18KT 3752 10074 

$$

RBURG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 7:05 PM CDT, 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 7:05 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
705 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Scattered storms and heat will continue to be the main forecast
points in the short term. A surface low located in southeast
Colorado along with a weak frontal boundary in southwest Kansas
will be the focus for the potential development of storms late
this afternoon into tonight. HRRR and RAP have been fairly
consistent showing isolated to widely scattered storms developing
after 4pm and moving east to southeast through the forecast area
before dying off shortly after sunset. Main risk with these storms
will be strong downburst winds given the environment of around
100 degree highs and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. CAPE
values are forecast to be ~3000 J/kg ahead of the thunderstorm
development. It looks like better potential for storm development
tonight given the lack of widespread morning convection...however
a few isolated thunderstorms from Syracuse to Garden City that
developed this morning may provide a more stable airmass for
thunderstorm development to overcome.

Friday could bring with it similar conditions with more heat
through the forecast area as highs in the lower 100s with heat
index values around 105 for the counties along the Oklahoma border
looking like a good bet. The surface low in eastern Colorado will
continue to have a weak frontal boundary in southwest Kansas and
with northwest flow another 500-700 mb shortwave will move in late
afternoon. Depending on where the boundary sets up more isolated
to widely scattered late afternoon storms could develop. A lot
will depend on if the CAP can be broken ahead of the boundary so
the chance nothing develops is also in the cards.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

More chances of spotty storms will continue in the long term as
the upper level pattern will continue to stay mainly in northwest
flow between an upper level low in the southeast and a ridge in
the desert southwest.

A 500-700 mb shortwave is forecast to come into western Kansas
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and combining with upslope
flow we could once again see isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms develop.

Sunday with the ridge moving a little more eastward at this point
this should keep us dry through most of the day.

Monday the long term models have the hints of a MCS developing in
eastern Colorado with a shortwave propagating along the ridge and
moving into western Kansas in the overnight.

Tuesday through Thursday continue with the upper level flow in a
northwest pattern with periodic shortwaves rotating around the
ridge in the Rockies providing more chances of isolated to widely
scattered storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Aside from isolated evening t-storms, VFR conditions will presist.
With a light pressure gradient, winds will be generally light and
less than 10 kts except in vicinity of t-storms through 02z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68 101  70  93 /  20   0  20  10
GCK  68 102  69  94 /  20  10  20  10
EHA  70 104  70  98 /  20  20  20   0
LBL  71 106  71  97 /  20  20  20   0
HYS  70  96  68  91 /  10   0  10   0
P28  73 102  73  94 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ088>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 3:34 AM CDT, 15 hours 53 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
334 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
334 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 /234 AM MDT Thu Jul 19 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A heat advisory is in effect this afternoon across portions of
south central Kansas. See the latest Urgent weather message for
more information.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

A chance of storms will be possible Friday and again early next
week. As of now, these storms do not look to be severe.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Significant risk

* Saturday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 3:59 PM CDT, 3 hours 28 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
359 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

KSZ084-085-192145-
Stevens KS-Morton KS-
359 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORTON AND SOUTHWESTERN
STEVENS COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles east of Elkhart, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elkhart and Wilburton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10200 3702 10203 3712 10171 3701 10132
      3700 10135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 285DEG 16KT 3701 10183

RBURG

Local storm report, Jul 19, 4:17 PM CDT, 3 hours 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELKHART AWOS SITE       37.01N 101.89W
07/19/2018  M47 MPH          MORTON             KS   AWOS

            AWOS STATION EHA, ELKHART AWOS SITE.

&&

RB

Local storm report, Jul 19, 4:46 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
446 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     HAIL             9 S MANTER              37.39N 101.89W
07/19/2018  E0.88 INCH       MORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&

RB

Local storm report, Jul 19, 6:39 PM CDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
639 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     HAIL             2 NE WRIGHT             37.80N 99.86W
07/19/2018  E3.00 INCH       FORD               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            3.5" HAIL.

&&

JF

Local storm report, Jul 19, 7:02 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             2 NE FT. DODGE          37.75N 99.91W
07/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

&&

JF

Local storm report, Jul 19, 7:23 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
723 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     HAIL             2 N FORD                37.67N 99.76W
07/19/2018  E2.00 INCH       FORD               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 7:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Grant, Kearny	43 min
Jul 19, 7:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Clark, Ford, Kiowa	13 min
Jul 19, 7:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Grant, Haskell, Kearny	21 min
Jul 19, 7:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Gray	38 min
Jul 19, 8:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Hodgeman	45 min
Jul 19, 8:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Gray, Haskell	49 min
Jul 19, 8:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Haskell	57 min
Jul 19, 8:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Finney	65 min
Jul 19, 8:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Gray, Haskell, Meade	48 min
Jul 19, 8:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Finney, Gray, Hodgeman	46 min
Jul 19, 9:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Ford, Hodgeman	43 min
Jul 19, 10:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Edwards, Hodgeman, Pawnee	26 min
Jul 19, 10:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Kiowa	59 min
Jul 19, 11:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Barber, Comanche, Kiowa, Pratt	45 min
Jul 20, 4:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Grant, Haskell, Meade, Morton, Seward, Stanton and 1 more	55 min
Jul 20, 5:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Grant, Morton, Stanton, Stevens	48 min
Jul 20, 5:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Grant, Haskell, Meade, Morton, Seward, Stanton and 1 more	74 min
Jul 20, 6:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Clark, Comanche, Kiowa	68 min
Jul 20, 6:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DDC	Hamilton, Kearny	63 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.