Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
303 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 257 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Updated forecast to include the Tornado Watch in effect for all
of the western Nebraska panhandle in addition to most zones in
southeast wyoming, but does not include Carbon county. Watch is
good until 10 PM MDT. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon - Sunday Night)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018

The primary focus for this afternoon/evening will be the potential
for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across southeast Wyoming &
the western Nebraska Panhandle. 1-minute visible satellite imagery
indicates low-level stratus has largely cleared across the region,
but skies remain mostly cloudy w/some mid-level convection already
ongoing. Nonetheless, surface heating appears to be well under way
with temperatures already in the mid/upper 70s across a large part
of the area. This, in conjunction with widespread dew points of 55
to 65 F along/east of the Laramie Range & very steep mid-lvl lapse
rates is contributing to 2500+ J/Kg CAPEs per the latest Mesoscale
Analysis from SPC. Only weak capping remains, and initiation could
occur between 2pm-3pm MDT w/storms likely to become quite numerous
over the plains by 5pm.

Any storms that develop today could be associated w/ a high threat
for severe weather. Modest southeasterly low-level flow beneath 20
to 25 knot WSW flow at 700 mb is already contributing to effective
SRH upwards of 200 m2/s2 which should be plenty favorable for low-
level mesocyclones. Effective bulk shear of 50-60 kts and straight
line hodographs will favor intense supercell structures along with
an enhanced likelihood for splitting cells. The primary hazard may
be very large and potentially destructive hail. However, low-level
shear profiles could support tornadoes w/ discrete storms. Despite
fairly modest southeasterly near-sfc flow, any right moving storms
will be ingesting moist/high-helicity air. LCLs only around 1000ft
could further support tornadogenesis. STP values already exceed 1-
2, and may increase further over the next few hours. The potential
for an isolated strong tornado cannot be ruled out, especially for
areas along/south of a Wheatland-Alliance line as storms track SSE
into a considerably more favorable environment later today. Latest
SPC SREF Ensembles illustrate this threat well w/ numerous intense
updraft helicity tracks across the CWA.

A risk for severe thunderstorms will exist on Sunday as well along
and east of the Laramie Range, but the overall risk is unlikely to
be as volatile as today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday - Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018

Upper-level ridging will take shape across the western CONUS after
Sunday, giving way to a period of warmer and drier weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018

A few lingering pockets of MVFR ceilings continue across southeast
Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon, but the
general trend should be for low-level stratus to rapidly dissipate
giving way to predominantly VFR conditions. Convective chances are
the main aviation concern today. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid afternoon, especially
along/east of the Laramie Range. Some storms will likely be severe
with very large hail (surface & aloft), damaging winds, and also a
possibility of a tornado or two. Thunderstorms should diminish mid
to late evening. Low stratus and possible IFR/LIFR ceilings should
return to KCYS/KSNY and possibly KBFF overnight lingering into Sun
morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 426 AM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018

This remainder of the weekend will be wet with more scattered afternoon
and evening thunderstorms especially along and east of the
Laramie Range. This precipitation will limit any fire weather
concerns. Fire weather Zones 303 and 304 will be the exception
with lower humidities around 15 to 20 percent and wind speeds
around 10 to 15 mph both today and Sunday. Drier weather is
expected next week which allow for the fuels to dry out with
afternoon humidities dropping to 15 to 30 percent by the middle of
next week.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...REC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
250 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>103-106>108-115>119-
291845-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-North Laramie Range-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
250 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A Tornado Watch is in effect until late this evening. Numerous
afternoon and evening severe thunderstorms will be possible again.
The main threats with these storms will be hail up to baseball size,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes as well. The thunderstorms
should move out of the area by midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Another round of severe weather is expected Sunday afternoon and
evening. These storms will also be capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds.

.Spotter information statement...

Skywarn spotter activation is expected this afternoon and evening

WYZ104-105-109>114-291845-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
250 PM MDT Sat Jul 28 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will develop mainly along and
east of the Laramie range this afternoon and evening. The main
threats with these storms will be large hail up to quarter size
and damaging winds. These thunderstorms should move out of the
area by sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

More scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop mainly
along and east of Laramie range Sunday afternoon and evening. The
main threats with these storms will be large hail up to quarter
size, damaging winds and brief heavy rainfall. These
thunderstorms should move out of the area by sunset.

.Spotter information statement...

Skywarn spotter activation is expected this afternoon and this
evening.