Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
420 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Severe weather ongoing across southeast Wyoming as we get an early
start today. Forecast challenges deal with severe convection and
possibility of heavy rain both today and Friday.

Currently...Water vapor imagery showing an upper level shortwave
tracking into the CWFA that has kicked off convection. SPC
Mesoanalysis page showing an uncapped environment with surface
based CAPE around 2000-2500J/KG already this afternoon at 2PM.
Bulk shear around 40-45kts as well. Both CAPE and shear are
expected to continue increasing through the rest of the afternoon.
CAPE expected to peak out around 3000-3500 J/KG at 6PM and bulk
shear increases to 50-55kts. Large hail, damaging winds and a few
tornadoes can not be ruled out. PWATs in excess of 1 inch continue
across our eastern counties through the afternoon, so existing
Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect. HRRR continues to show
pretty strong cells across the area through roughly 03Z before
beginning to ease.

Forecast still on track for severe weather Friday as another
shortwave tracks into the Nebraska Panhandle. ECMWF continues to
show the best area for severe storms Friday to be over the
Panhandle where SPC has an Enhanced Risk for severe storms. Heavy
rainfall expected out there Friday, so later shifts will need to
consider another Flash Flood Watch once again.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

The wet and unsettled conditions will remain over the area
Saturday through Sunday with a pretty good push of cool air for
late July arriving Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms will continue both days. Drying should then ensue late
Sunday in the wake of a stronger shortwave that will move south
from the northern plains and cut off the monsoonal moisture for a
time. Monday through Weds should see warming temperatures back to
near seasonal averages along with mainly dry conditions under a
persistent northwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 417 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Round #2 of thunderstorms beginning to develop along the Laramie
Range late this afternoon. Using latest HRRR guidance shows the
storms impacting KCYS and Nebraska Panhandle airports through the
03-04Z timeframe. Could see stratus redevelop tonight for those
airfields that receive heavy rainfall this evening. More
widespread showers and thunderstorms expected for the Panhandle
airports Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Minimal fire weather concerns over the next few days as monsoon
moisture remains in place. Widespread wetting rains expected with
well above critical humidity in the afternoon. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to continue through Sunday, before drying commences
next week. Until then, fire weather threats will remain low.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for WYZ108-118-
     119.

NE...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for NEZ003-
     019>021-054-055-096.

&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1014 AM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-117>119-
271615-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-East Platte County-Goshen County-
South Laramie Range Foothills-Central Laramie County-
East Laramie County-
1014 AM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
initially develop around the mountains early this afternoon then
move out over the plains through this evening. Strong to severe
storms are possible with large hail and very strong downburst
winds the main threat. Heavy rainfall can be expected with some of
these storms and a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas
along and south of a line from Alliance to Torrington to Cheyenne
from 4 PM to 10 PM this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Scattered showers and storms will continue to be likely through
Sunday. Some strong storms remain possible Friday and Saturday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will be needed along and south of an Alliance
to Torrington to Cheyenne line after 3 PM today.

WYZ103>106-109>116-271615-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-
1014 AM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Widely scattered showers and storms should move across the area
this afternoon into early this evening. Severe storms are not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Widely scattered showers and storms will continue to be likely
through Sunday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
409 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

WYZ101-103-105-262300-
Shirley Basin WY-Converse County Lower Elevations WY-
North Laramie Range WY-
409 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARBON...NORTH
CENTRAL ALBANY AND SOUTHWESTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 409 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Beartrap Meadows County Park, or 14 miles
southeast of Casper, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glenrock, Laprele Reservoir, Deer Creek, Boxelder, Curtis Gulch
Campground, Campbell Creek Campground and Little Medicine School.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 156 and
167.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Wyoming.

LAT...LON 4254 10544 4237 10557 4239 10607 4243 10610
      4244 10608 4278 10608 4290 10578
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 329DEG 27KT 4268 10615

Lyons

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
426 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             1 NE GLENROCK           42.87N 105.84W
07/26/2018  E1.25 INCH       CONVERSE           WY   PUBLIC

            NEAR GLENROCK ON INTERSTATE 25 AT MILE MARKER 169.

&&

GCLAYCOM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
458 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

NEZ003-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-262345-
Box Butte NE-North Sioux NE-South Sioux NE-East Platte County WY-
Goshen County WY-Converse County Lower Elevations WY-
Niobrara County WY-
458 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BOX BUTTE...CENTRAL
SIOUX...SOUTHERN NIOBRARA...NORTHERN GOSHEN...NORTHEASTERN PLATTE AND
EAST CENTRAL CONVERSE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 458 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles east of Lusk to 10 miles north of
Glendo. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Laramie, Prairie Center, Jay Em, Fort Laramie National Historic
Site, Agate Bed National Monument, Rawhide Buttes, Hartville, Van
Tassell and Hwy 85 At Dry Rawhide Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska...and southeastern and east central
Wyoming.

LAT...LON 4229 10343 4217 10460 4267 10517 4275 10424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 311DEG 40KT 4271 10429 4265 10503

Lyons

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
523 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             HORSE CREEK             41.41N 105.18W
07/26/2018  E1.75 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
610 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     HAIL             8 NW CHEYENNE           41.23N 104.90W
07/26/2018  E1.00 INCH       LARAMIE            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BCHAPMAN

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