Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
401 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Humid and stormy weather will continue through midweek with
strong to locally severe thunderstorms possible. Thursday looks
like a drier day before an unsettled pattern unfolds over the
weekend through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the
region this afternoon along a boundary out ahead of the frontal
system. Some of the strongest cells have been severe with heavy
downpours. Due to the low flash flood guidance and that strong
anomalous PWATS, any heavy downpours from these storms could
cause minor flooding. Heat index values are certainly
contributing to the potential for strong storms. They are
highest through the far southeast. Expect showers and
thunderstorms to continue through mid evening. Latest HRRR is
doing a decent job matching convection and continues to have
these storms move through the region through 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Rain showers and convection will diminish slowly after sunset
with redevelopment again on Wednesday as the weakened frontal
boundary remains over the northeast US and an upper level trough
begins to swing over the Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Drier wx is likely on Thursday before an unsettled pattern
unfolds over the weekend through early next week. Models and
ensembles show a cut off low developing over the OH Valley
by the end of the weekend. Widespread precipitation is likely
to the east of the low along the Appalachians into early next
week with some potential for a heavy rainfall threat
considering slow system movement. The distribution and intensity
of the rainfall will be sensitive to the evolution of the upper
low/trough. This will be something to monitor in the coming days
especially given how wet it has been this summer.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lines of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through
the rest of the afternoon and evening. Expect periods of IFR in
TSRA with MVFR overnight as showers increase after 08Z. Skies
should improve between 13Z to 15Z. Expect showers again tomorrow
afternoon.

Based on the slow moving system, there will be a similar
situation for Wed.

.Outlook...

Wed...Morning fog possible. Afternoon TSRA impacts possible.

Thu...Morning fog possible.

Fri-Sat...Scattered afternoon TSRA impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Ceru
SHORT TERM...Ceru/Tyburski
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
438 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-080845-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
438 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy
downpours that could lead to localized flash flooding are possible
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy
downpours are possible Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
422 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT CARMEL            40.80N  76.41W
08/07/2018                   NORTHUMBERLAND     PA   911 CALL CENTER

            1 TREE DOWN IN MT CARMEL TOWNSHIP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802103

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
436 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ASHLAND                 40.87N  78.33W
08/07/2018                   CLEARFIELD         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WIRES DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF RT 61 AND RT 54.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802104

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILLERSTOWN             40.28N  78.30W
08/07/2018                   BLAIR              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802105

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW BLOOMFIELD          40.42N  77.19W
08/07/2018                   PERRY              PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1802106

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
546 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

PAZ059-066-072215-
Lancaster PA-Lebanon PA-
546 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LANCASTER AND LEBANON
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 545 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Timber Hills, moving east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Ephrata, Elizabethtown, Lititz, Palmyra, Manheim, Annville,
East Petersburg, Cornwall, Akron, Leola, Denver, Campbelltown,
Rothsville, Pleasant Hill, Lebanon South, Cleona, Brickerville,
Schaefferstown and Quentin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4007 7617 4015 7659 4019 7660 4020 7657
      4027 7660 4034 7656 4033 7617 4029 7612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 278DEG 20KT 4025 7649

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
601 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

PAZ066-072215-
Lancaster PA-
601 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LANCASTER COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM EDT...

At 600 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Quarryville, moving east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail, frequent lightning, torrential downpours and winds in
excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Quarryville, Wakefield, Atglen, Georgetown, Kirkwood, Little Britain
and Buck.

LAT...LON 3977 7626 3995 7622 3995 7599 3993 7598
      3993 7600 3987 7599 3987 7600 3985 7602
      3981 7603 3980 7605 3979 7604 3976 7606
      3976 7608 3973 7609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 278DEG 15KT 3986 7615

KF