Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Special Weather Statements in 2018

Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

August 7, 2018Lycoming County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this special weather statement at Aug 7, 2018, 12:34 PM EDT for Lycoming County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 7, 2018, 12:34 PM EDT (16:34 UTC)
Expired: Aug 7, 2018, 1:00 PM EDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS State College, PA

County Lycoming County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 229 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 614 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -3 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 599 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -21 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: -0.0
Supercell composite: -0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 7, 11:40 AM EDT, 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 11:40 AM EDT, 54 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1140 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather will continue through midweek. Isolated
strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Thursday looks like a drier
day before a a new unsettled weather unfolds into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers and thunderstorms stretching from Lake Ontario
southwest through Ohio and Indiana have only nibbled at the far
northwestern border for central PA this morning. The weakening
frontal boundary and lowering heights continue to move toward
the region. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to move
west to east across central PA this afternoon. Latest HRRR has
convection sparking around 19Z. Heat index values will be
highest over the far southeast where precipitation will take the
longest to reach there. However, max apparent temperatures only
reach the mid 90s.

SPC has the entire area in Marginal Risk for both Severe and
Excessive rainfall for today. With the incredible rainfall
amounts over the eastern half of the CWA over the past few
weeks, flash flood guidance is low and heavy rainfall will be
quick to run off.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Rain showers and convection will diminish slowly after sunset
with redevelopment again on Wednesday as the weakened frontal
boundary remains over the northeast US and an upper level trough
begins to swing over the Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Drier wx is likely on Thursday before an unsettled pattern
unfolds into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds continue to stream into JST with MVFR. These clouds
should continue through the rest of the morning and the
afternoon as the system propagates eastward. As the front gets
closer, Convection should spark around 19Z. Given specifics on
where any TSRA will develop, have left VCSH. However Brief
periods of TSRA are possible between 19Z to 23Z.

Based on the slow moving system, there will be a similar
situation for Wed.

.Outlook...

Wed...Morning fog possible. Afternoon TSRA impacts possible.

Thu...Morning fog possible.

Fri-Sat...Scattered afternoon TSRA impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Tyburski
SHORT TERM...Ceru/Tyburski
LONG TERM...Tyburski
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 7, 4:38 AM EDT, 7 hours 56 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
438 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-080845-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
438 AM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy
downpours that could lead to localized flash flooding are possible
this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy
downpours are possible Wednesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 12:34 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1234 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

PAZ012-041-045-046-071700-
Southern Lycoming PA-Southern Clinton PA-Northern Clinton PA-
Northern Lycoming PA-
1234 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1233 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
McElhattan, moving east at 20 mph.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Winds in excess of 30 mph are also possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jersey Shore, Avis, Dunnstown, McElhattan, Collomsville, Waterville,
Oval and Salladasburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 7713 4110 7716 4116 7747 4131 7747
      4132 7711
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 272DEG 17KT 4118 7738

Ceru/Colbert

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 7, 1:38 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Sullivan	37 min
Aug 7, 1:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Montour	43 min
Aug 7, 1:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Columbia, Montour, Northumberland, Union	53 min
Aug 7, 2:00 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Somerset	30 min
Aug 7, 2:24 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Somerset	2 hr
Aug 7, 2:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Sullivan	42 min
Aug 7, 2:34 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Montour, Northumberland, Union	3 hr
Aug 7, 2:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Columbia, Montour, Northumberland	77 min
Aug 7, 2:54 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Dauphin	51 min
Aug 7, 3:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Dauphin, Lebanon, Schuylkill	13 min
Aug 7, 3:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Fulton, Huntingdon	49 min
Aug 7, 3:36 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Snyder	114 min
Aug 7, 3:58 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Franklin	47 min
Aug 7, 4:03 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Dauphin	57 min
Aug 7, 4:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Schuylkill	39 min
Aug 7, 4:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Juniata, Perry	31 min
Aug 7, 5:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Lancaster	29 min
Aug 7, 6:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Lancaster	14 min
Aug 7, 6:14 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Lancaster, Lebanon	3 hr
Aug 7, 6:20 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Sullivan	3 hr
Aug 7, 6:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lancaster	35 min
Aug 7, 6:58 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Sullivan	3 hr
Aug 7, 7:11 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Lancaster	2 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Pennsylvania, 2018 Every special weather statement in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.